VDSI ==> The ALCS Winner!

[mystiky]

some good news on VDSI

14:54 VDSI VASCO Data Security: Hearing upgraded to Outperfrom at Avondale (27.55 -12.51)

If it is good news...

I would stay away

[rockycool]

still going down

this news didnt change anything.....vdsi still going down.....I hope this does not turn out like Vonage (VG)....

[New-born baby]

this news didnt change anything.....vdsi still going down.....I hope this does not turn out like Vonage (VG)....

I have nothing invested in VDSI; I am offering this advise based on what I think the stock will do. I would advise first of all not to panic. I am going to try to help you out by spelling out the cold facts, and then you make your best play.

PnF has a target of $11 for it. Dow Theory says VDSI will fall down to $12. It's first decent support is at $22.50 or so. It is not a bullish picture.

You have access to an option chain, but it isn't going to pull your fat out of the fire without you risking more money. You could SELL 7 DEC $30 calls for $2.55. This would give you $30.00 for the stock if it trades that high on Dec 21. With that $2.55 you could BUY 6 DEC $25 PUTS for $2.80 per share (so you'd have a net credit of $10). IF VDSI falls down to $11 by then, you will come out about even, and still have your shares. You are taking on this risk: that you might need to buy 400 shares at $30 if VDSI recovers (I am taking for granted that you would be able to watch the stock between now and DEC expiry.

Frankly the market stinks right now. Consider that, too. I don't think the market moves higher--BUT it is likely BEARnard will lower interest rates next week, and the market may rally off of that news).

Another thing to consider: if MM is right, and VDSI is an "earnings machine," I have a chart for you of a company that I consider "an earnings machine" that had a similar chart to VDSI just a few weeks ago. Look what happened:



FINALLY, I would say this: next time, when earnings are at hand, you can protect yourself by straddling the stock. Sell a higher strike call and Buy a lower strike put to protect you on the downside.

[mrmarket]

Earnings protect you from a stock price going to caca. Like I said, this stock ain't no bunny trail. I gambled on earnings, but it doesn't mean their earnings were bad.

[IIC]

VDSI was # 5 on the IIC 100 this week...ran a Pre-IIC 100 just now for next week...it is still on the list at # 75...We'll see tonight

[mystiky]

VDSI downgrade

09:56 EDT VDSI downgraded to Source of Funds from Accumulate@THNK
ThinkEquity expects a deceleration in top-line results in 2008 as the market transitions away from core hardware token authentication. Target to $23 from $36

looks like dead money for a while

[rockycool]

09:56 EDT VDSI downgraded to Source of Funds from Accumulate@THNK
ThinkEquity expects a deceleration in top-line results in 2008 as the market transitions away from core hardware token authentication. Target to $23 from $36

looks like dead money for a while

I think I'll wait it Monday and if it still keeps up with the downtrend, I guess I'll bite the bullet and stay away from it

[New-born baby]

I think I'll wait it Monday and if it still keeps up with the downtrend, I guess I'll bite the bullet and stay away from it

Buy some puts and sell some calls and get your money back.

[IIC]

VDSI was # 5 on the IIC 100 this week...ran a Pre-IIC 100 just now for next week...it is still on the list at # 75...We'll see tonight

Ran the scan...it came in at #99 for next week...I'll post the list tomorrow as usual

[New-born baby]

The party is over

After Friday's action, PnF now has VDSI ultimate target coming in at $9 target; Dow theory has it at $5. So you can expect a bump higher on Monday, I think of perhaps $0.50 to $1.00. The stock has to run out of sellers soon, before the selling returns. Rallies start with short covering. And that is why you get a move up before you get the next leg down.

In my opinion, it ain't coming back soon. The difference between this stock and GRMN is that GRMN hit the PnF target when it fell. It already had a bearish target, and the fall took out the target, and she went right back up. VDSI is diffo.

So sorry about all this.

[rockycool]

Buy some puts and sell some calls and get your money back.

hello...just sent u a message....pls check..thanks!

[rookietrader]

is now an ok time to buy this one?

Just looking for opinions -

Has VDSI been beat up enough yet? Would it be safe to buy some more?

[New-born baby]

Just looking for opinions -

Has VDSI been beat up enough yet? Would it be safe to buy some more?

As a friend I'll tell you: wait for the $9 entry. Monday, 5 Nov 2007, VDSI had a descending triple bottom breakdown on the PnF chart. Target: $9. Do not double down here. You'll be sorry if you do. Patience will pay off BIG TIME.


Best to you.

[peanuts]

Just looking for opinions -

Has VDSI been beat up enough yet? Would it be safe to buy some more?

Based on the chart, I would short into any strength, here. Based on fundamentals, I would have sold after the last report and waited for a technical re-entry. There is a gap to fill at $17.50.... might be a place to start looking. But it could go even lower

[mrmarket]

Don't look now, but VDSI is up 40% off of its recent low...pretty nice bounce if you ask me.