VDSI ==> The ALCS Winner!

[stenzrob]

sold a 1% position in VDSI at 39.8, or 12% above where I got the shares yesterday. I'll buy them back again in the mid-30's after earnings come out, if the earnings report is good, and the market takes another hit. If not, I'll be happily cashing out the rest of my VDSI at $50.

nicely done Jiesen.

[jiesen]

thanks, Stenz!

[IIC]

sold a 1% position in VDSI at 39.8, or 12% above where I got the shares yesterday. I'll buy them back again in the mid-30's after earnings come out, if the earnings report is good, and the market takes another hit. If not, I'll be happily cashing out the rest of my VDSI at $50.

Nice....

[mrmarket]

missed by $0.02

rut-ro..........

[jiesen]

2 cents?

big deal... I just bought my 1% position back here at 29.5. We'll do just fine from here. Growth is still outstanding, backlog is very healthy.

[Al1000]

VDSI lost 27% today (vol:3 mio.) inspite of the fact that VASCO reports strong results for third quarter 2007 with 60% increase over Q3 2006. This is against all common sense. Any comments?

[mystiky]

rut-ro..........

That's what one gets for playing with fire.

Fire #1) Technical chart of VDSI was showing a clear breakdown starting.
Fire #2) Analysts downgraded VDSI during the last few weeks
Fire #3) Playing earnings? Not smart.

It will be a very long time before it sees $40 again. But I know, you have patience.

[Karel]

When $$$Mr. Market$$$ bought:

Mr. Market,

You shoulda, coulda bought ACH.

Up only $12 as I type....

but VDSI is not a bad choice

Now:

That's what one gets for playing with fire.

Fire #1) Technical chart of VDSI was showing a clear breakdown starting.
Fire #2) Analysts downgraded VDSI during the last few weeks
Fire #3) Playing earnings? Not smart.

It will be a very long time before it sees $40 again. But I know, you have patience.

A bit of hindsight is a beautiful thing.

Regards,

Karel

[rockycool]

help

i bought 300 shares of vdsi at 38 and its 27....damn.... does anyone is its gonna go up a little in a few months may be? or shud i sell all that i have now?

thx

[mrmarket]

No one, but an investment professional, should tell you what you can or should do with your money.

Having said that, I will be holding VDSI until it either reaches my price target or until something fundamental happens to the company or industry that will negatively impact its earnings growth. At this time, it looks like an earnings machine to me.

[Karel]

i bought 300 shares of vdsi at 38 and its 27....damn.... does anyone is its gonna go up a little in a few months may be? or shud i sell all that i have now?

thx

Rockycool, it is your money! Buying or selling is your decision. But it isn't nice to see things like this happen in your own portfolio. Apart from VDSI my portfolio is about flat right now, with VDSI -1.3%. From the fact that VDSI dropped about 30% and my portfolio about 1.3%, we may conclude I have about 1/20th of my total portfolio value invested in VDSI. So I am able to agree with $$$Mr. Market$$$ and to lean back with some equanimity.

Regards,

Karel

[rockycool]

No one, but an investment professional, should tell you what you can or should do with your money.

Having said that, I will be holding VDSI until it either reaches my price target or until something fundamental happens to the company or industry that will negatively impact its earnings growth. At this time, it looks like an earnings machine to me.

Thanks for your reply.....am kinda shocked that it fell by 30 % when it just missed by 2 cents the expectations....

[mystiky]

When $$$Mr. Market$$$ bought:


Now:

A bit of hindsight is a beautiful thing.

Regards,

Karel

Karel,

I beg to differ. Lets see what I wrote on 10/17:

I have no position of VDSI, but wanted to pass thing along:

October 17, 2007
VASCO Data-VDSI checks indicate business less strong than last year-Hold@JEFF
Jefferies' checks with the company's channel partners indicate that business is strong, although less strong than this time last year. Jefferies remains concerned about the high expectations priced in at current levels. Target to $38 from $26.

And let's see what I wrote on 10/19:

This close of 37.62 is not too good. You got the 20%, but the wrong way.
The good news is that 50-day should offer a decent support. The bad news is that it's only at 34.75.

O well...

So although my ACH comment was yes, a lookback, I think that my prediction on VDSI was dead on. And gotta give credit to the Jeffries analyst who correctly gave it a $26 target.

Hope this saved someones money...

[IIC]

VDSI lost 27% today (vol:3 mio.) inspite of the fact that VASCO reports strong results for third quarter 2007 with 60% increase over Q3 2006. This is against all common sense. Any comments?

Beating or missing eps estimates is more important than "vs. last year"...At least in the short term. Also more important is guidance. If a company beats big vs. last year but lowers guidance...it will usually tank.

I know that VDSI missed on estimates...I don't know if they issued any eps guidance but they maintained revenue guidance.

It's too bad for those that held thru earnings...But it may be worth checking out for a new buy although I wouldn't try to call the bottom here...I'd be patient and check things further over the weekend...Doug(IIC)

[stenzrob]

Beating or missing eps estimates is more important than "vs. last year"...At least in the short term. Also more important is guidance. If a company beats big vs. last year but lowers guidance...it will usually tank.

I know that VDSI missed on estimates...I don't know if they issued any eps guidance but they maintained revenue guidance.

It's too bad for those that held thru earnings...But it may be worth checking out for a new buy although I wouldn't try to call the bottom here...I'd be patient and check things further over the weekend...Doug(IIC)

"Worth checking" is right, Doug. I haven't recalculated the ratios given the latest report, but the P/E and P/S were very high for VDSI. They are executing well, but had gotten to be priced for perfection, and will be punished for missing. That's why my gains in VDSI were made when the price was much lower, as mentioned near the beginning of this thread.
As an aside, I'm guessing that as of today, VDSI would not make the r^2 test to be a new MM selection.