Portfolio of the week - 2008

[peanuts]

duuuude

gimme OXPS long

Congrats to the winners and thanks to skiracer!!!

[jae16]

J,
that's a good pick and read J. when I first posted the chart at StockCharts I was indecisive on whether to put it up as a Symetrical Triangle pattern, as I did, or to put it up as a Descending Triangle pattern. If you look at the last two large red candles and were to draw a line across the bottom of them and continued the line to the left over to the next white candle the pattern changes to a Descending Triangle.
My logic was that with the Symetrical Triangle pattern and it sitting right on the bottom line I was looking for a bounce up off the bottom line which they do a very high percentage of times in that type pattern. I think that market direction over the last couple of days carried the stock farther down making the Descending Triangle the more relevant pattern of choice. Good eyes on your part.
There is a catch though. There is some arguement for the Symetrical Triangle pattern coming thru though. If one were to lower the bottom line of the Symetrical Triangle on the right side to the bottom of the last red candle on the right after Fridays closing a larger Symetrical Triangle pattern shows and then the stock could still bounce off the bottom line.
I am not trying to defend the Symetrical Triangle pattern but to illustrate something that has to be taken into account when interpreting these chart patterns. Also market direction is so important and such a factor in these decisions that it has to be included in your decision. Most stocks will follow the market just because that's what they do the higher percentage of times. When situations like this turns up sometimes it is best to stay away because of the contradictory nature of the two patterns within one chart. But good eyes seeing that breach of the Symetrical Triangle and good luck with it in this weeks game.

First of all thanks for the analysis Ski, I went back and looked at the points you have mentioned... You know what though, I am comfortable making this move with this pick given that the market is trending down. I would be more comfortable with this pick over if the time period were a little longer and I could confirm the down trend, but it is my best bet right now...

Hey ski could you check out GGB and tell me what you think about the triangle pattern its making? Check out the daily chart... and look at the past month or so... Is that trend long enough to be considered?

[jiesen]

Nice job Billyjoe, Sirtuck, and Stky!
Ski, please give me LJPC long again for this week. Thanks!

[Karel]

Long QMAR

Congratulations, Billyjoe, and nice jobs, Sirtuck and Stky!

I am still long QMAR.

Regards,

Karel

[New-born baby]

I am shorting C. Thanks SKi.

[riverbabe]

Ski, please put me in SIRF sht (Shooooorrrrt). River

[RL]

Ski would you please put me In SEED-LONG Thanks and have a great week

[billyjoe]

Ski,
I'll take RGEN long. Thanks.

-----------billyjoe

[skiracer]

[quote=RL;90806]Ski would you please

Ray,
Pete Hansen already chose SEED. Please make another selection.

[IIC]

I'll pick VVUS long....IIC

[jae16]

Hey ski, lets say your second interpretation of FCX was correct, which it appears it was... I am gonna turn course and go long FCX... hope to take it to the upper border...

[jae16]

BTW I make this reversal at 97.34

[skiracer]

Hey ski, lets say your second interpretation of FCX was correct, which it appears it was... I am gonna turn course and go long FCX... hope to take it to the upper border...

It's just a matter of interpreting the chart. I saw two patterns developing across some of the same time frame. I liked the symetirical triangle pattern over the descending in the beginning. That's the way I posted it instead of visa versa. I was just a bit early in the triangle and the drop became the point of the reversal.
It was a good find and setup from the start. I really never planned on buying the stock but only to give a good example of a bullish symetrical triangle pattern over at StockCharts. Too expensive for me. To much money to make less. I made the adjustment on the lower line and that was the point.
I don't want to put the horns on your play on the reversal because I think the trade could go to 101/102 range from here but I think you are getting in a bit late on the move. The top line on the daily would extend out to about 102 +- but to do that it is going to have to break through the 20 ema and the 50 ma at 99.12 and 100.52 which are both strong lines of resistance.
With me it's not a matter of being personally right or wrong but in the attempt to read the chart and see it go the way you expect it to. For every interpretation there is an opposite one both can't be right. Good luck with the FCX play. I'll use your numbers for the exit and new entry.

[RL]

Ski just caught the post put me In MOS-LONG

[skiracer]

Ski just caught the post put me In MOS-LONG

Wish I could put you in at the open Ray but it's 3:13 at 107.39. At least no penalty.