VISA Windfall or Windbag?

[Peter Hansen]

As Charles Dickens said a few hundred years ago ," It is the best of times .....it is the worst of times" but inspite of a poor market VISA will IPO during the week of March 19, 2008.
Salient Points:

1. VISA plans to sell 406 million shares or 51% of itself, for $37 to $42 per share
2. VISA will rank as 3rd largest global IPO behind 1st Bank of China and Mobile 2nd.
3. Master Card shares have soared more than 400% from their IPO in 5/06
4. VISA is not a bargain like Master card was VISA 11 P/E at mIPO, and VISA will come in about 30 P/E
5. Other credit stocks did not do well after IPO. Discover IPO started at $28 but has now lost over 45% of its value. American Express has dropped over 20% since its IPO .
6. VISA is larger than Master Card . Visa processed 60% of credit card transactions , while Master Card only 39% in 2006.

Will VISA give you the MEGA 400% return that Master card did after its IPO? ..........only TIME will tell.

WILL YOU BE A BUYER?.....please let me know what you think.
Have a beautiful day!

[billyjoe]

Pete,
I will be a buyer unless the price opens outrageously high. I originally figured $85 to the public but now it sure seems as though it will be lower. They still may postpone should the market continue tanking. Rumors are that Chinese want in heavily but with 400 million shares there should be plenty extra. We'll probably not see 300% gain. 50% would be great.

American Express and Discover are structured differently and their revenues are effected by non-payment while MA and V get transaction fees no matter what and have almost no risk.

-------------billyjoe

[skiracer]

if it goes off at a lower or much lower price than the 80 - 85 range i think i would be a buyer. nothing is going to do real well as long as the markets keep trending lower. i would hate to be a buyer at 75-80 range and see the markets continue to fall and it with it. looking at the chart of both the indu and spx i can see it falling farther to the 11500 range which is the 50 sma and first support on the monthly. the weekly shows that it has fallen below both the 50 and 100 sma's with the 200 the last line of support at 11500. if it breaches the 200 on the weekly i wouldn't be buying anything long at that time.
the whole situation is very volitaile and on thin ice at this point from a technical point of view of the weekly and monthly charts. the daily is below all moving averages and the trendline is down and has been for almost 3 months. if you look at the daily chart it is cleary showing a descending triangle pattern developing. as much as i like the play off of what master card did after it's ipo i would be real wary as the markets could play havoc with everything. patience is the keyword with it.

[Peter Hansen]

Visa March 19 .... IPO Debuts

Get ready........ on market close 3/18/08 price of VISA IPO will be set, and it should come in at $37 -$42 range . On Wednesday the stock will launch.

How should you play it ?......USUALLY after the stock comes out in the morning it opens high , and then drops ( this is caused by institutions selling their shares for a quick GUARANTEED Profit ) Keep your finger on the mouse ready to click on your brokerage "BUY" button and "At The Market" Don't get cute here and get closed out .....set stops as it goes up , and hang on for the ride .

Why am I hot on VISA? .....LISTEN UP:

1. VISA is no piker IPO offerring ....it is the "LARGEST" credit company in the US
2. Michael Brush ran an article in Microsoft money stating that ," The opportunity to own VISA shares is 'Priceless' and we could see VISA advance 50% in a year or more .
3. VISA is a major sponsor of the Beijing olympics and will be exposed to Billions.
4. With the "NET" cash of 5-6 Billion from the IPO ....VISA is set to crush Mastercard which is like the K-Mart of the credit card world compared to VISA
5. It allows 15,000 banks to compete for customers while NOT exposing one penny of its assets to a credit risk
6. I love my VISA card ....I get 3% cash back on the eligible purchase that I spend most on .....for me the super market . I hate those BS air miles .......when you decide to redeem always problems .....bottom line .....take the money and run .
7. You can now use VISA for transactions as low as 2 dollars ...and in some states their is no low limit
8. Earnings and revenue will grow 20% or better in the next few years
9. VISA has name recognition .....VISA is to credit card as Coke is to soda
10. This is a no brainer ....even Polish guys are running out to buy this one

Good Luck and watch it all unfold on WED 3/19/08

Good Luck To ALL !

[IIC]

Life takes VISA...VISA takes fees

As you mentioned VISA doesn't take a whole lot of risk although if spending is reduced so is their revenue.

Last year they started centralizing operations which will reduce costs.

Seems like a solid bet although I doubt it will run away like MA did but who knows?

I might consider taking a stake in one of our tax accounts.

[JohnHenry]

I read the reasoning for the 406 millions shares was to keep the price from popping up when the secondary opens on opening day. Any thoughts?

[IIC]

If I was V I'd postpone this thing...But who listens to me???

[dmk112]

Looking at MA it seems that this would be a good buy but then again it hasn't gone anywhere recently and this is not the best of times...

[Peter Hansen]

Betting The Ranch On Visa

Saw this on the WEB well needless to say this guy puts his money where his mouth is but as OLD Chinese saying ....."He who never takes that first step , will spend his entire life on one leg"


Nomoreregrets wrote: 81d ago
I was prepared to spend 10,000 dollars the day MA went public. But I hesitated becuase I lost my job the day before. That investment would be worth 42,000 dollars today.

I hate my own face when I look in the mirror every time I think of how much money I almost made. So now I'm going to mortgage my home and put every penny I have in the upcomming Visa IPO.

[billyjoe]

If you bought an object at an antique mall for $44 for resale and as you were walking out a customer offered you $48 would you sell? I'm thinking very few shares will be available in the 44-51 range but as it gets around 55 or 25% gain they'll start coming out of the woodwork. At 66 or 50% gain you'll get all you want. So I'll be happy to get any in the low 50's. Maybe things will change tomorrow.

----------billy

[billyjoe]

A minute or two after it opened V sold 1,000 at 65. They wouldn't accept my generous offer of 48 . It was too far from the previous sale price. They also won't take 50. Where's their sense of humor? My broker now shows a sale at 60.

----------billy

[skiracer]

A minute or two after it opened V sold 1,000 at 65. They wouldn't accept my generous offer of 48 . It was too far from the previous sale price. They also won't take 50. Where's their sense of humor? My broker now shows a sale at 60.

----------billy

I want to buy some to billyjoe. i think you will definitely see it under 50 or lower. I am going to wait it out.

[Peter Hansen]

VISA Bought at $55.63

VISA seems to be playing according to script .......OPENS HIGH .....Sharp Drop after sharks bail with sure profits .......UPTICK begins ..........Friends GET IN NOW !

[billyjoe]

Ski,
Hope you're right. When you think about it 400 million shares is a lot to move and make a 25% or greater profit in one day. Maybe they'll run out of steam here in a few hours. I'm seeing some sales in the 200-300 share range slipping in here between 55.50 and 57.50 where earlier only the 10,000+share blocks were trading.

----------billy

[billyjoe]

Trading volume appears to be slowing. Now at 104 million shares. That might signal a drop in price I hope.

--------------billy