ParkTwain's Parlor

[ParkTwain]

THANKS runner, but tell me, what is your threshold for knowing that your portfolio is doing well?

P.S. Got +6% in my SNX today! That's more like it.

[ParkTwain]

Been looking at the ORCL chart

It showed lateral drift at about 12.50/sh from Sept 05 to mid March 06, when a nice breakout got it moving upward, and now it's at 15.50. It has showed good relative strength vs the Naz since then. It just surpassed intermediate resis at 15/sh in early Aug. It reaches its 5-yr high at about 17/sh if it keeps rising. From there it's tougher sledding up its Matterhorn that was put in before/after the year 2000 bubble.

[Runner]

Park I’ve allocated 10% risk or total of 1K for this port. This will be my R1. Each position is given equal risk or 55.55. Once a position reaches R1 (55.55) I will begin an exit strategy based off 10or 20 bar low and given 1 ATR of .05 as a constant multiplier for each day the stock moves in my favor. Since total risk is 1,000 I will be looking for at least an R2 or 2,000. R2 per position is 111.10 X 18=1999.80 if all hit an R@. We know this is very unlikely. When a position drops to my stop point it will be sold as a lost. The goal is to ride the winners and flush the losers and in doing so reach the R2 goal.

Yes this sounds crazy to have so many positions on with such a small amount but we are conducting this experiment as it fits in with what I’ve been doing lately in a forum of money management. Hope this sort of explains this goal.

[ParkTwain]

Birinyi's blog - too much good stuff

There's so much good stuff in this blog every day, it could keep you from getting anything done with your trading.

http://www.tickersense.typepad.com/

For instance:

http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/2006/08/best_and_worst__2.html

See any friends on these lists?

Also provides a fantastic collection of links in the left and right margins of every page.

[ParkTwain]

Closed higher every day since Bernanke spoke?

http://www.trade-ideas.com/StockInfo/more_up_days.html?more=1

some of these are up more than 10 days in a row.

[ParkTwain]

SNCR - provisioning sw for VoIP telecomms providers

I just found this one while going through the "up at least 5 days in a row" list here:

http://www.trade-ideas.com/StockInfo/more_up_days.html?more=1

SNCR's latest financial PR is found here:

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060731/20060731005867.html?.v=1

Notice they have $2/sh in cash and their earnings before income taxes (not paid last year) have increased by about 33% in the first 6 months of current FY.

Looking at the chart, the pps has now made a round trip from its IPO price down and back. When it settles itself and makes ready to surpass its IPO pps, POUNCE!

This is a low volume trader for now, but notice the >300K volume day on August 18, which coincides with the filing of a Schedule 13G ( http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/schedule13G.asp ) by Rosewood Partners, et al. A bullish development! Since that date, the pps has risen daily, though on much lower daily volume. 32M shares of float.

(Contrast the SNCR chart with CTCM since its IPO. Either can be a winner once the uptrend is established. The post-IPO roundtrip is quite common, of course, just not typically THIS FAST.)

[ParkTwain]

New goodies - after Tues close

Here are more of the better all-time high (ATH) setups and breakouts that resulted from scanning today's 52-week highs list. Some of these I might have mentioned in one of my previous "weekend research" posts.

I think almost all of these are very good candidates, given a bullish tenor to the markets.

ABK
BBV - my timing wasn't good on this one last week
CNSL
EBF
HCSG
HITT (watch first for a drop to 50DMA)
HRH (strong technicals, close to ATH)
HURN - another one I like a little extra
KONA - restaurant chain, I like 'em, low avg daily vol but recently active
PBG - Pepsi bottling co.
REXI
SNCR (see previous post on this thread), SRE
TRMA - I especially like this one
VVI
WDFC - news earlier in Aug of expansion into China drives momentum


And here are a few more "perennial" climbers, an impromptu category I started mentioning yesterday:

CG
DGX
KRC
PEP - Pepsi has a better-looking long-term chart than KO
SIAL
VIP, VDR, VTR

GOOD NIGHT, finally!

[ParkTwain]

Tried to bag some VVI and SNCR this morning. Missed the VVI I think, was hot on thin volume so I declined to pursue it.

(Finally got both, later in the day.)

[peanuts]

Tried to bag some VVI and SNCR this morning. Missed the VVI I think, was hot on thin volume so I declined to pursue it.

I own VVI in my LT account, Park (not many shares as it is a new position). I like the earnings growth

This is a member of my Earning Growth list posted on my thread

[Runner]

BAP has reached our 1R currently and so exit plan will begin. We will select the low of 8/3/6 to begin the ratchet. 16X.05=.80 or stop now at 31.39.

[ParkTwain]

Very low -DI measures in my trading portfolio

Ctcm -di: 5.85
Sncr -di: 9.72
Vvi -di: 9.45 (only this stock's 2nd time below 10.0 in 20 months)
Snx -di: 8.78 (also showing its lowest -DI measure in 20 months)

I'm being patient with these children, but I'm not getting much satisfaction this week, or last week.

[ParkTwain]

Results of research on Mon Sept 4, 2006

These stocks have charts and improving technicals such that I would expect gains over the next several trading sessions. Quite a few of these are "repeat offenders" in lists I posted the previous couple of weeks.

AXS
BBV, BGC, BLKB, BMR, BW
CMP, CSH, CVA, CVG, CVS
DFG, DIS
EQY, EXR
FORM
FORR high headroom to next resis
GBCI, GEO, GISX, GNW
HPT, HURN
JBX
MEOH, MON, MVL
NHP
NITE nice-looking C&H formation happening right now
NWL
PTV
RPM
SBS, SHOO, SJR, SLW, SNH
TDY, TNC
WEBX, WRI

A couple of these (DIS, RPM) show an ADX +DI/-DI bullish crossover below the 20 measure, which is my latest technical chimera to seek after.

After a first-pass review of these findings, the "A team" was down to only SBS, NITE, GEO, and FORM, although, CMP, BW, AXS, HURN, CSH, and MON are also pretty sweet, seems to me.

[peanuts]

These stocks have charts and improving technicals such that I would expect gains over the next several trading sessions. Quite a few of these are "repeat offenders" in lists I posted the previous couple of weeks.

AXS
BBV, BGC, BLKB, BMR, BW
CMP, CSH, CVA, CVG, CVS
DFG, DIS
EQY, EXR
FORM
FORR high headroom to next resis
GBCI, GEO, GISX, GNW
HPT, HURN
JBX
MEOH, MON, MVL
NHP
NITE nice-looking C&H formation happening right now
NWL
PTV
RPM
SBS, SHOO, SJR, SLW, SNH
TDY, TNC
WEBX, WRI

Quite a list that you have here. Will you update after today? I'd like to have your narrowed opinon of these.

NITE does looks good for MT trade. Is today a proper entry point, though?

[ParkTwain]

For the C&H, you would buy after the breakout above the pivot (high point of the handle). But the whole point of trading (er, speculation, that is) is anticipation and discernment of probabilities.

[peanuts]

...But the whole point of trading is anticipation and discernment of probabilities.

I wasn't clear in my post. I asked a rhetorical question. My opinon is that everyone and their brother is looking at NITE for a C&H breakout, and that is exactly why I would not initiate a position until it breaks out. There is some more room for consolidation, so I'm cautious of going long until that breakout is confirmed. Knight Capital has been a historical manipulator of stock prices back in the dot com days. I wouldn't doubt the same thing will occur with their own stock, but maybe I'm just paranoid.