ParkTwain's Parlor

[ParkTwain]

gauging imminent breakouts

This one's not so hard. It's the idea behind my entire approach, as presented in my "manifesto."

You're looking for a stock that is approaching, or has just met, some previous high point -- the best is if that high point is a previous all-time high for that stock. You want to see that the technical indicators are building strength as the stock price has approached that previous high point. You want to see in those indicators that there is still room for even further strength, enough to push the stock price upward past that previous high. Remember what "resistance" is -- the more volume that was transacted in that stock as it turned down from that previous high point gives you the basis for gauging the strength of that point as resistance. That volume is telling you how many previous buyers will have the incentive to SELL when the stock attains that previous high price again.

Of course, if you have independent knowledge that the company's operations are continuing to improve versus the time when it made that previous high point, that future earnings guidance indicates company growth, there is a reasonable P/E ration and PEG ratio, that revs and margins are strong and improving -- all these things give you corroboration that there will be strength in the market to push the stock price beyond the previous high point. Then, after it has done so, there are that many FEWER previous owners who will be willing to sell their shares as the price continues to rise. If the stock surpasses a previous all-time high, you are now in BLUE SKY TERRITORY, absolutely the best place to be for a stock's price.

[ParkTwain]

NCAA March Madness wild cards

Louisville and Arizona are the only seeds above (4) that can conceivably get to the Final Four.

Ga Tech (3) and Wake (4) could also make it. Pitt (3) is relatively likely to make it.

I don't have much hope for a Final Four for NC St or Wisc or Kansas or Cinci, or for UNC or Texas. Memphis would have to play out of their minds to get out of their regional.

I think St Joe's, Duke, Stanford, and Ky are all overrated: Duke is soft on defense and to be pushed around inside (they have to play Cinci and Miss St to advance), Stanford shoots well but can't defend and only Childress can penetrate (they have to play defense-minded Maryland and UConn to advance), and Ky is small and can defend and press but has no solid go-to guy on offense (they have to play athletic Ga Tech and defense-minded Ok St/Pitt to advance).

For me it comes down to Pitt or Ok St versus Miss St or UConn in the final game.

[ParkTwain]

A FEW NEW BREAKOUTS

CRIO (sub $5/sh, beware), ATVI, RHAT, VRNT, OMNI, APPA (sub $5/sh, beware)

These are a few days old, but still worth your time:

DPTR, GDYS, PENN, TSN


Still liking many of the gaming stocks: SHFL, STN, IGT, congrats to $$MM$$ w/ ASCA whose good news this week pulled up everything else in the sector.

I am now in MPP and UHCO (expecting renewed strength for their next respective breakouts).

It's good to see some new pep back in the market this week.

Happy hunting!

/PT

[IIC]

I stiil like SHFL and ASCA

[Michaelk005]

ATVI up over 11% today, which I bought a few days ago... I'm up close to 15% in lesss then 2 weeks.. BEET THAT MR. M

[ParkTwain]

New breakouts list

From Friday's Barchart.com list of 52-week highs:

I did my work last night on the Barchart.com New Highs list (for Fri March 26) to find the stocks making breakouts to an all-time high. Several of the stocks I found are also on this weeks MM list: ATVI, AZR (still just under its all-time high), MOGN, NAT, STGS.

There are several others now in BLUE SKY TERRITORY that were not on MM's new list: ADSK (breakout is a couple of weeks old but only 20% or less above the previous high; still a good candidate for continued appreciation), ASCA (breakout has just happened; it's time to buy, not sell), BRO (insurance seller showing strength through the post Jan 2004 market slump), CVD, FE (strengh still building), RL (Polo Ralph Lauren), SHW (Sherwin Williams paint; previous high was in 1998 or so); THT (spec situation stock; low-volume stock, about to be bought out by parent co.), TRA (another spec sit, at 52-wk high not all-time high; maker of nitrogen-based fertilizer with huge demand from China; probably to be acquired).

[ParkTwain]

MPP - +15% in 4 trading days

Took my 15+% profit (actually 17.3%) this morning. It will certainly go up from here as well. No regrets. Watch the chart.

[ParkTwain]

Bought AMPH

Cheaply priced. Recent technical strength, now in BLUE SKY TERRITORY. Will probably buy more as she goes. MM, take a look!

[ParkTwain]

Looking for breakouts among OIL STOCKS

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^XOI&t=my

See the "max" chart for the XOI index of major oil companies. She's on the cusp of a breakout to the upside.

Click on the "components" link to see the list of oil companies that contribute to this index's performance. You can also buy a security (on the AMEX) that tracks this index's performance.

I recommend that you get into one or more of the major oil companies soon!

[ParkTwain]

RUSSELL 2000 is at its March 2000 BOOM HIGH

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^RUT&t=5y

Why hadn't I noticed this before?

What do you think of this fact? Is the small cap market running on fumes right now? Have we regained the "bubble" mentality in the small cap world?

[spikefader]

Re: Looking for breakouts among OIL STOCKS

I recommend that you get into one or more of the major oil companies soon!

Good call.
Channels would have had you long in several of these http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=^XOI early this week. TOT is a perfect example of channel entry on Wed morning on the gap down, which had an intraday bullflag you could have entered 94.20ish if you missed the buy at open down near 93.55. Some yet to trigger long from lower channels, so I'm watching.

[ParkTwain]

what is your basis for drawing extent of the channel?

Is this a std dev spread, or something else?

I ask because before the day of the recent dip in TOT, there was no (or what?) basis for the extent of your upward sloping channel lines. Only now can you draw the bottom line of the channel at the low point of that dip. Help me out here.

[ParkTwain]

XOM chart shows my preferred setup

30+ year chart on XOM provides long-term context for today's price. All-time high occurred in October 2000:

http://chart.yahoo.com/c/my/x/xom.gif

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=XOM&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=b&c=

I use a 3-yr chart from stockcharts.com to start examining my setup candidates, based on a 52-wk highs list sorted on RSI:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=xom,uu[h,a]daolyyay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!Ll14]&pref=G


What I am looking for:

1. Rising RSI nearing 70. Shows the stock's has some strength right now but that strength also has some room to increase further.

2. Stock price is at, just below, or (if more conseratively playing it) just OVER a previous point of price resistance that has just been surpassed on strong volume (i.e., upside breakout) with the further back in time that resistance point is the better. So I will prefer an approach, or breakout over, the previous all-time high point in the stock's history. Blue Sky Breakout is preferred among all setups.

3. On the ADX plot, a new jump in the +DI (green) line, in tandem with an ADX line that has just turned upward over 20.


I have done very well with this approach during the bull run after March 2003, and before that. I prefer working with stocks under $30/sh.

[spikefader]

Re: what is your basis for drawing extent of the channel?

Is this a std dev spread, or something else?
I ask because before the day of the recent dip in TOT, there was no (or what?) basis for the extent of your upward sloping channel lines. Only now can you draw the bottom line of the channel at the low point of that dip. Help me out here.

They are regression channels. Never heard of 'em? Check them out, they are useful tools. You are mistaken or confused about the 'only now can I draw the line' part. When one is using these channels on a daily chart, they move and project points relative to each day and the channels move and modify (very different from standard fixed channel trend lines). Some days, the line will be way under price, other times, price will move in such a way that the two connect.

For eg, TOT at the open on that day, price was slam bang right on the channel. In fact, it caused it to widen slightly, opening price right on an adjusted channel. Check them out at stockcharts.com and choose 'annotate' under the chart and then choose 'Raff Regression Channel Tool' from the toolbar. You'll note that the channels will widen depending on what price does from the point you're measuring from.

Also, when you say before the day of the dip I would have had no basis for the extent of my red channel lines, you are mistaken. Despite the fact that I wasn't watching TOT (and I simply posted it above as an example of how your suggestion on Oil stocks fit in well with my technical setup) I can tell you with certainty that had I had TOT on my watchlist, I'd have a distinct basis for drawing the red channel. That basis is the blue channel turnup. That is one of the bullish channel signals I hunt for when searching for trades. Many examples in my thread. The other is a channel breakout (expansion). I specifically use THOSE as the basis for drawing the second channel (in this case red) from the most recent low.

Why do I do that? To look for entry long at the lower channel based on the blue channel bullish signal. You will note that after the blue channel turned upward, it took 6 days for price to return to the lower red channel. Had I spotted this stock prior to Wed, I would have drawn the blue blue channel turn up, and liking the rest of the chart (volume support bla bla bla), then I'd have it on my watchlist and be following it, and hence my red channel drawn, waiting for price to hit it so I could take the long (based on other intraday patterns). There are several examples where I have done this real-time in my thread, NUTR is a good one that comes to mind, or ELN the day after the channel touch but price was still hanging down there.

Hope that clarifies it for ya.

[ParkTwain]

the problem is...

If you were long TOT on the day that TOT dipped down, a couple of trading days ago, you wouldn't know what to do and your chart wouldn't have been able to help you. The dip down would have fallen below the channel lines that you would have already drawn up to that point. So what do you do when the price falls below the channel lines?

Your charts are a tool for a daytrader, someone who is constantly watching a given stock or the entire market in order to determine which side (short or long) to be on for a given trade. I am more of a chart-based speculator. I will enter a trade looking for a multi-day or several week hold. I want the 15% gain that $MM$ has made so popular on this board. Previous support/resistance points are the key for me, along with the indicators that give a clue whether a given previous resistance point is likely to be superceded in the near future, or whether a recent breakout is likely to hold up as the stock tracks upward.