ParkTwain's Parlor

[ParkTwain]

Results of mini-scan

Stocks trading at least 100K/day, $5/sh < pps < $15/sh, within 3% of 52-week high (using Yahoo's Java screener):

(+ = forward P/E under 15; * = beta > 1.50)

+AHR
*CRA
*DYN
+HIH
*MENT, +MPW
+NRF
+OHI
PBNY
TYL

[skiracer]

Stocks trading at least 100K/day, $5/sh < pps < $15/sh, within 3% of 52-week high (using Yahoo's Java screener):

(+ = forward P/E under 15; * = beta > 1.50)

+AHR
*CRA
*DYN
+HIH
*MENT, +MPW
+NRF
+OHI
PBNY
TYL

Park,
Take a look at Businessweek.com's advanced screener if you haven't already.
http://prosearch.businessweek.com/bu...?mode=advanced. Lots and lots of variables and plugins available.

[ParkTwain]

One-half of Alaska oil production to shut down

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060807/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_field_shutdown

//
ANCHORAGE, Alaska - In a sudden blow to the nation's oil supply, half the production on Alaska's North Slope was being shut down Sunday after BP Exploration Alaska, Inc. discovered severe corrosion in a Prudhoe Bay oil transit line.

BP officials said they didn't know how long the Prudhoe Bay field would be off line. "I don't even know how long it's going to take to shut it down," said Tom Williams, BP's senior tax and royalty counsel.

Once the field is shut down, in a process expected to take days, BP said oil production will be reduced by 400,000 barrels a day. That's close to 8 percent of U.S. oil production as of May 2006 or about 2.6 percent of U.S. supply including imports, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The shutdown comes at an already worrisome time for the oil industry, with supply concerns stemming both from the hurricane season and instability in the Middle East.

"We regret that it is necessary to take this action and we apologize to the nation and the State of Alaska for the adverse impacts it will cause," BP America Chairman and President Bob Malone said in a statement. ...

Victor Shum, an energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore, said he expected the impact to be minimal.

"The U.S. market is actually well-supplied; crude inventories are very high," he said. "So while this won't have any immediate impact on U.S. supplies, the market is in very high anxiety. So any significant disruption, traders will take that into account, even though there is no threat of a supply shortage."
//

[ParkTwain]

My other candidates for POTW this week

Found this weekend:
AEOS, HIH, EGLE, LKQX, HST, CVA

This week's pick: CTCM (Russian media co.)
//
CTC Media, Inc. operates as a commercial television broadcaster in Russia that airs targeted entertainment programming. It operates two networks, the CTC and the Domashny television networks. The CTC Network offers entertainment programming targeted at 6-54 year-old viewers. The Domashny Network offers programming with a focus on issues of interest to women, such as health, raising children, family and career, and style and fashion, as well as Russian movies and foreign series principally targeted at 25-60 year-old female viewers. CTC’s signal is broadcast by approximately 300 television stations and local cable operators, including 14 owned-and-operated stations and 17 unmanned repeater transmitters. Domashny’s signal is broadcast by approximately 100 television stations and local cable operators, including four owned-and-operated stations and two unmanned repeater stations. As of December 31, 2005, the company had contractual programming rights for approximately 11,000 hours of programming. CTC Media was founded in 1989 by Peter Gerwe and is headquartered in Moscow, Russia.
//

7/31/06 qtrly report:

http://tinyurl.com/eqrga

[ParkTwain]

New standouts from tonight's research

Is this the perfect chart (not to mention the divvy)? MPW

A couple more beauties making new highs: OMM, SPTN

Old flame: USEY

Back from the dead: CKSW

[Rob]

CTC Media (CTCM)

This week's pick: CTCM (Russian media co.)

I like CTCM too. Wish I'd have bought it when ...

• WSJ article, 6/2
• Prospectus Info.

[ParkTwain]

Another one I'm liking this week is GSTL. CTCM or GSTL, decisions, decisions.

[ParkTwain]

I like CTCM too. Wish I'd have bought it when ...

• WSJ article, 6/2
• Prospectus Info.

You know my point of view: it's much easier for a strong stock to rise when it is in "blue sky" territory (recently surpassed a previous all-time high) than not.

[ParkTwain]

Being prepared for a good intraday surprise

(Here's a copy of a post I made tonight on IIC's thread.)

I just kicked myself for a little while recently because of a specific kind of situation, but one that happens to me about once a month. This is about being prepared to deal with a GOOD surprise during the trading day.

I tend to want to hold a new long position (I do near-term momentum-oriented breakout setups and long trades only) till I get at least a 10 to 15% gain in each position, depending on the market situation and the mix of positions I have at that particular moment. What has happened to me several times (because I've been "especially" right a few times, I guess) is that the stock spikes up intraday to something close to my sell point, but I just sit there and watch it happening WITH GLEE and think it will just keep going up but then it drops back significantly by the end of trading that day.

What I think I need to do is to go into every new day with a LIMIT SELL order on each of my positions that is about 10% above that stock's opening price. I should do this REGARDLESS OF HOW CLOSE EACH DAY'S OPEN IS TO MY SELL PRICE FOR EACH POSITION. Especially given the market we're seeing lately, a gain of +10% or more FROM THE OPEN on any of my open long positions should be enough to put in my pocket for THAT DAY anyway!

I haven't been doing this so far for a couple of reasons:

* I'm only watching the markets for the first 90 minutes or so, before I head off for work. The downside of these intraday spikes happens later in the trading day.

* I am trading in an IRA, so if I sell, I can't safely use those funds to make another buy for another 3 days (that is, until today's sell clears). By selling I lose access to any further gains in that stock for those 3 days. Thus, to sell would mean that I don't expect the stock to gain much more than that 10% for another 3 days (lots of times that is the most likely outcome, but it depends on that stock's and the overall market's recent behavior).

* I usually open a new long position only on stocks that are making a new all-time high ($$MM$$ board newbies can ask me why later sometime). The intraday spike might occur on unusually high volume, which can be a GOOD SIGN or a BAD SIGN. I can interpret this as a GOOD SIGN in thinking that today's volume means there are a lot of new folks wanting to get involved with the stock and in the aggregate those transactions should serve as a support point going forward after today. Or I can interpret this as a BAD SIGN if later in the day the stock drops way back down to where it opened, or even below (this is an upside down "hammer" in candlestick talk, what is that term?); in other words, that day's action could end up being a bearish reversal and could mean that an important top is being put in just while I was watching.

I guess the stock's intraday volume (up to the time in the day when it reaches my limit sell point) could be the cue as to what I should do when I'm this kind of situation.

In addition to having in place a +10% gain limit sell order in place for each position at the beginning of each day, I could also consider placing a volume-based (rather than a price-based) alert on each open stock position, so I'll be alerted when high volume is occurring in any of my positions.

Of course, for a spiking stock making a fast market intraday, I might not get a fill on my limit sell order that day.

Have any of you guys gone through this kind of quandary, and what did you do about it as to adjusting your intraday trading rules?

//PT

[Runner]

Park just a thought. You could determine the stocks average true range and set a trail stop based off that range. If a volatile move occurs during the day you might get stopped out. However if the stocks volatile move is to the upside you might do well with your stop. If you come home from work and notice your still in the trade and have reached your goals just tighten your stop or leave it for a possible larger gain. You can use Average true range 14X2 or 10X3 or whatever range you wish. I feel the ATR keeps you out of the noise and if you do get triggered out you probably don’t want to be in that position anyway. Another thing you could do is by simply placing a hard stop off the ATR. If your goal of 10% gets hit tighten the stop or place order to sell next day. If your risk is 10% you could also just place a stop off 10% and look for 20% or more to the upside.

Say the ATR is 2.50. Once you have a R1 or 2.50 gain you could scale out half your position and set the rest to break even. This way if the stock continues to climb you still have half a position to capture it. If you do get stopped on the remanding shares no big deal.

Park, you could also use a percentage-based system. This is based off your risk. Say you will risk 10% on the trade. Once you make 10% set stop to even. If it climbs to 15% set stop to +5. You could also get creative with this type of system. If the thing is really taking off you could become as aggressive on the stops as you wish. Of course if your 10% stop gets triggered shortly after entry then your out, but your trade was within your risk (unless gap down).

I think a 10% profit in these choppy times is very good. I like to let the market determine where I’ll be booted from a position. I’ve kicked myself too often by taking profits to fast. On the other hand I feel one needs to use description in this current market..

Last thing with what I’ve been talking about is based off each day and not intraday charts.

[ParkTwain]

BP's amazing mismanagement of pipeline fiasco

Alaska state government expects to go into deficit after 2 months of
reduced oil tax revenues:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060810/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_field_alaska_13

//
JUNEAU, Alaska - Gov. Frank Murkowski imposed a state hiring freeze Wednesday [Aug 9, 2006] because of the millions of dollars in revenue Alaska is losing as a result of the Prudhoe Bay oil field shutdown, and said he would support hearings into BP's maintenance practices.

The governor also said he would direct Alaska's attorney general to investigate whether the state could hold the oil giant fully accountable for the state's losses.

Earlier this week, BP said it would shut down Prudhoe Bay — the biggest oil field in the nation — because of a small leak and severe pipeline corrosion. Energy officials have said the pipeline repairs are likely to take months, curtailing Alaskan production into next year.

The expected loss of 400,000 barrels per day at today's oil prices means the state is losing about $6.4 MILLION A DAY IN ROYALTIES AND TAXES, Revenue Commissioner Bill Corbus said.

The state receives 89 percent of its income from oil revenue; Alaska has no state sales tax and no personal income tax. The Prudhoe Bay shutdown will cut in half Alaska's total oil production and the resulting revenue.

Without money coming in from Prudhoe Bay, Alaska's government CAN OPERATE FOR ONLY ABOUT TWO MONTHS BEFORE GOING INTO THE RED, Corbus said.

"BP must get the entire Prudhoe Bay back up and running as soon as it is safely possible," Murkowski told a joint session of the state Legislature.

BP, the world's second-largest oil company, said it would replace 16 miles of pipeline that carries oil from Prudhoe Bay to the 800-mile Trans-Alaska Pipeline. The Prudhoe Bay field accounts for 8 percent of U.S. domestic output.

"We obviously apologize for the impact this is having on people, and we regret having to take these actions, but our focus is on safe operations and environmental protection, and that's the reason why we've undertaken the action we have," BP spokesman Neil Chapman said.

Because oil demand is so high and the nation's petroleum supplies are so tight, the shutdown has already driven oil prices up and could mean higher prices at the gasoline pump as well.

Three Democratic legislators released a letter to Murkowski calling on the governor to hold hearings and have BP officials explain under oath what they did, or failed to do, to maintain Prudhoe Bay's pipelines.

"Absent hearings, during which witnesses are sworn under oath and relevant documents are subpoenaed, the public may never learn the truth," the lawmakers said.

Murkowski said he would support the idea and "I fully expect hearings to occur."

Murkowski questioned why BP abruptly shut down the entire Prudhoe Bay field after finding a leak of only four to five barrels.

"What did BP learn last Sunday that it did not know previously that would cause BP to take such precipitous action?" Murkowski asked. He complained also that the state was not consulted before the decision was made. ...
//


Article from May 2006 in Petroleum News (pp. 10 ff), corrosion in BP pipeline is due to microbial (sulfate reducing bacteria) activity; also discusses sludge in pipes, why Alyeska pipeline (across Alaska) doesn't want to receive what is scraped out:

http://www.petroleumnews.com/pdfarch/41710489.pdf

Letter (and other rehashed paperwork) by federal pipeline safety regulator re: BP's lack of responsiveness since March 2006 pipeline leak:

http://www.phmsa.dot.gov/news/BarretttoDingell07-26-2006.pdf

Rep. Dingell of Michigan had gone to Alaska in April 2006 to investigate the March 2006 spill:

http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2006/04/07/congressmen_probe_alaska_pipeline_spill/

[JohnHenry]

Pancake

Have you eaten at The Original Pancake House in Henderson? My grandfather takes me there every Saturday morning after his golf game. I’ve been there four times this summer. So far this place serves the best omelet. I think they use ostrich eggs for the omelets because I eat the take home for dinner and for breakfast for the next morning. Anyway there’s not much to do here if you can’t drive or gamble.

[ParkTwain]

Hi there! I've eaten at the OPH in the Green Valley Station casino and at one in the west side of LV. Yeah, I think they do a pretty good job on their omelets, which can be pretty large.

[ParkTwain]

New research for this weekend

Using this stock scan:

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Current PPS between 10 and 50
*Current PPS no more than 5% under 52-week high
Average daily volume >= 100K
Beta >= 1.0 (stock moves at least in sync with the overall market)
-----------------------------------------------------------------

*I have found this particular parameter to be provided only by the Yahoo Java-based stock screener. Please let me know whether it's also found elsewhere. I find it to be a very valuable aid to my stock-picking methodology.

My stock-picking thesis: I'm looking for stocks that have made, or appear about to make, a new all-time high (ATH) price per share (PPS), with respect to surpassing a previous ATH price of at least 30 trading days ago. Such a breakout on above-average volume gives better than average probability of at least a 10% gain in the relatively near future (2 weeks or so), with good safety that the PPS won't fall again below that previous ATH PPS. I want to get that 10% to 15% quickly and with good safety. Of course, any breakout above previous resistance is a good thing, but when the breakout is to a new ATH PPS (that is, no further overhead resistance exists), a strong stock (that is, having a high absolute RSI measure) is more likely to gain PPS **at a faster rate** than had occurred previously on its price chart.

Regarding interpretation of the ADX, etc., I have found that a low absolute -DI measure is the most important factor that correlates with success in a long position (that is, a PPS gain!). If the +DI is also low, then when it rises the PPS will go with it as long as the -DI stays low; this makes for a safe play because it indicates very weak selling pressure inhibiting the PPS rise. Declining -DI and rising +DI is the best situation. The longer in time that the -DI stays at a low absolute meaure (such as <12.0), the more likely the PPS will continue rising. Some traders watch for +DI/-DI crossovers, but I believe if that crossover occurs at too high a measure (such as above 15.00) the results are not as reliably bullish.


I open a Yahoo "max timeframe" stock price chart, then I also open a chart such as this one ( http://tinyurl.com/zt9ud ) that presents RSI, daily PPS, daily volume bars, and ADX (+DI for buying intensity, -DI for selling intensity). Using these, as of the close on 11 Aug 2006, I made the following assessments:

Y = good candidate for new long position
M = maybe, WATCH it first
N = disqualified


Y AHR (finance) sideways RSI, sideways -DI 13.66, PPS 12.72 w/ b/o at 13,
resis in early 2004

Y BAP (finance) inclining RSI 72.96, declining -DI 9.82, PPS 33.10,
ATH b/o >30.00 in late July 2006

Y CVA (energy) inclining RSI but topping, declining -DI 13.95,
b/o to ATH 6 sessions ago

Y CVS (retail) inclining (topping?) RSI 65.47, sideways (but low) -DI 12.31,
PPS 33.97, passed ATH of 31.00 in mid-July

Y DFG (finance) inclining RSI 65.54, declining -DI 15.05, sideways PPS
38.00 in Aug 2006, ATH b/o 36.00 in late July 2006

Y EBF (bus forms) declining RSI 53.39, declining -DI 16.04, PPS 19.40,
ATH 22.00

Y EXR (slf-stor) sideways RSI 59.88, declining -DI 17.36, PPS 16.46,
ATH 17.00

Y GEO (prisons) inclining RSI 63.82, declining -DI 13.76, PPS 42.17,
b/o to ATH 2 sessions ago

Y GISX (ofc tech) inclining RSI 55.26, declining -DI 13.15, ATH b/o late May
2006, then retrace, then rebound far early Aug 2006

Y MON (chem) inclining RSI 60.84, declining -DI 13.38, PPS slight
pullback from ATH 8 sessions ago

Y OCN (finance) inclining RSI 71.76, declining -DI 7.16, PPS ~15,
next resis (1999) ~28

Y PBKS (bank) inclining RSI 58.03, declining -DI 11.60, ATH b/o mid-July
2006, retrace, then rebound 2 sessions ago

Y SBS (water ut) inclining RSI 67.38, declining -DI 14.04, imminent ATH b/o
>27.00

Y SJR (cable sys) inclining RSI 55.48, declining (but reversing) -DI 16.08,
PPS 29.41, just passed ATH of 29.00 ~10 sessions ago

Y SNX (IT tech) slightly declining RSI, declining -DI 8.86,
trading only since Jan 2004, PPS 20 w/ ATH b/o above 24,
INTERESTING TECHNICAL DIVERGENCE (declining RSI, rising or sideways PPS, declining +DI and -DI), which I would consider bearish for the stock if it weren't for the low (and declining) absolute -DI measure. I classify a low -DI stock with also a declining +DI as a "buyer's strike" situation; these often resolve with the buyers returning later, causing a PPS increase.

Y STD (bank Spain) inclining RSI 57.90, declining -DI 23.01, PPS 14.94,
immiment return to ATH 15.50

Y TROW (funds) inclining RSI 71.59, declining -DI 11.21, PPS 42.32,
imminent b/o to ATH 43.00

Y WIBC (bank) sideways RSi 62.39, declining -DI 14.15,
imminent ATH b/o



M AES (utility) fluctuating RSI 56.34, -DI 18.96, next resis ~40

M AYE (utility) sideways RSI 67.42, sideways -DI 15.05, PPS 41.65,
next resis (2001) of 55.00

M BAY (pharm) sideways RSI 61.34, declining -DI 18.73, imminent ATH b/o
> 50.00

M CRA (biotech) declining RSI 55.52, sideways -DI 18.41, PPS 13.14,
next resis 15.00 and ~23.00

M CVG (services) recovering RSI 54.89, declining -DI 11.55, nr 3-yr high,
PPS 19.12, next resis >30

M ISSX (sw) inclining RSI 67.86, sideways low -DI 14.11,
PPS 25.52 at 3.5-yr high, next resis 35 to 40

M NG (gold mine) declining RSI 65.72, declining (but reversing) -DI 12.38,
PPS 16.61 now sideways, ATH 17.00

M OHI (REIT) inclining RSI 60.08, choppy -DI 15.51, PPS 13.71,
next resis at 14.00, ~26.00

M OKE (nat gas) inclining RSI 69.30, declining -DI 6.90, PPS 38.83,
b/o to ATH 34.00 in early July 2006

M PLCM (comms eqp) sideways RSI 54, -DI 17.21 nontrending,
imminent 2y high b/o at ~24, next resis at 40

M PR (invstmts) inclining RSI 62.35, declining -DI 14.04, PPS 17.45,

M PRSP (bank) inclining RSI 59.78, declining -DI 10.59, PPS 35.00,
b/o above base of 32.00 in early May 2006

M RKT (packaging) slightly inclining RSI, -DI 14.49 slightly declining,
PPS 17.83, b/o above ~20

M SEIC (funds) choppy RSI 57.21, choppy -DI 16.60, PPS 48.87,
next resis 60.00

M SHPGY (pharm) inclining RSI 65.22, declining -DI 17.98, imminent b/o over
5-yr high of 50.00, next resis ~60.00



N BLI (retail) inclining RSI, -DI 13.41, far below ATH

N BMC (sw) including RSI 60.16, -DI 10.51, far below ATH

N CHL (cell ph) inclining RSI 63.62, declining -DI 17.75, far below ATH

N DDS (retail) inclining RSI 60.76, declining -DI 15.72, PPS 31.32,
far below ATH

N EMT (telecom) sideways RSI 56.60, declining -DI 13.18, far below ATH

N IDTI (chips) inclining RSI 61.34, -DI 11.40, far below ATH

N KR (retail) declining RSI, far below ATH

N MAT (toys) declining RSI 58.36, declining -DI 13.74, far below ATH

N MENT (tech) RSI flat at 62, -DI 12.75 and declining, far below ATH

N NFS (insurance) inclining RSI 64.23, declining -DI 9.59, PPS 45.73 below
ATH ~52.00

N ORCL (sw) flat RSI, -DI 12.38, far below ATH

N PSO (publishing) inclining RSI, far below ATH

N RSYS (hw tech) inclining RSI, declining -DI 11.51, far below ATH

N SYKE (services) inclining RSI 64.8, -DI 16.85, far below ATH

N USB (bank) topping RSI 54.78, rising -DI 21.92, PPS 31.90, ATH >35.00

N AD (merger target)
N ADRX (merger target)
N DQE (merger target)
N FFFL (merger target)
N FILE (merger target)
N MIK (merger target)
N MROI (merger target)
N NWEC (merger target)
N PETC (merger target)
N RSAS (merger target)
N RYAN (merger target)
N RWY (merger target)
N SAX (merger target)
N TMG (merger target)
N TRZ (merger target)

Finding 18 "Yes" candidates is not bad for a market that has been acting so weak lately. I will examine each of these more closely, watching for any warning signs such as a current weak industry sector, a company in another country with iffy economic/political stability, high historic P/E for that stock, price and/or volume volatility (prefer steadily rising daily volume) in the past few weeks and months, etc. I will probably choose one of these as my new POTW selection.

There are several excellent-looking charts in this weekend's "Maybe" and "No" groups as well, but in no case did any of those charts present an obvious previous ATH that the recent price action is encountering, or has encountered and surpassed on above-average volume. Thus, I would say that the rising price (even with many or all of the relevant techical indicators indicating a "green light") is not a safe (that is, RELIABLE) play for me; that stock could turn around in short order and give back all its gains because there is no obvious support price level. I don't have the time or the inclination to do the fundamental research that would give me the confidence to open a new long position in a stock that has been going up non-stop for 6 to 12 months with no obvious previous ATH that the PPS has encountered and surpassed (so that it acted as resistance, then support) recently.

From my experience of going on 10 years in the stock market as an individual trader, I have found that at almost all times in the overall stock market bull/bear cycle, I am able to find more stocks that meet my preferred criteria than I can open positions in; thus I am loathe to use any other criteria for making my stock trading decisions.

[peanuts]

I want to get that 10% to 15% quickly and with good safety.

Dude! Have you looked at my MOMO posts? I am averaging 20% gain per trade, and each position has been held for about a month, some much less, and a few a little more.

Good luck with this screen, but be careful of Yahoo! I once bought a stock, GRRF, because Yahoo! posted great looking numbers for the stock. But when I did some further research on the company, I found out that Yahoo! was wrong.