Today's Stocks in an Uptrend

[billyjoe]

4/20

ALB, PII

---------billy

[billyjoe]

4/21

NEU, TDSC, BIIB, SLV, TZOO, DBS


-----------billy

[Megafauna]

4/21

NEU, TDSC, BIIB, SLV, TZOO, DBS


-----------billy

So billyjoe are you actually playing these stocks you post almost everyday and are you profiting from them? About what % gain do you average per trade?

Why not just play the calls and profit a LOT more? After all they are stocks in an uptrend?

[billyjoe]

Mega,
I've got a combination of Mr.Market picks, uptrenders, and my long term dividend reinvestors along with AAPL. Currently 9 winners with 7 between 20 and 83% gains and 4 losers , only 1 over 10%.

Biggest problem is not enough $$ to buy without selling something else and there's nothing to sell, maybe will free up some next week.

On my shorter term trades with Mr.Market and the uptrenders I'll sell at around 15-16% gain (or when the wife secretly increases my life insurance policy) . Earlier if somethings not right with the company and will hold above 16% if it's really hot, like ALTR right now. But I'll probably be out of ALTR before earnings Monday or is it Tuesday?

The reinvesting div. picks, NYB, NJR, HQL, and PM are way up and I'll not sell them. All different sectors, and AAPL won't be sold either.

My portfolio is at a lifetime high or at most .5% off alltime high.

Fewer trades and longer holdtime work well for me but a portion will always be for play money. Still working on optimum buy and sell points.

Options are not for me. I'll stick to my study of common trading until I perfect it.

-------------------billy

[billyjoe]

4/25

SOHU

--------billy

[billyjoe]

4/26

IIVI, AAN, CMI

---------billy

[billyjoe]

4/27

AGQ

AGQ first appeared as a 3X uptrender on 10/29/10 with a buy at 101.37. It dipped to 98.77 on 11/3/10 and the rest is history. Reaching the first target at 117.59 on 11/4, it was again a 3X uptrender on 11/19 with a target of 141.43 reached on 12/2. Today it closed at 361.75.

---------billy

[billyjoe]

3/24


RIC and IPGP 3X


IPGP is a buy at 60.13 or less with a target of 69.75


----------billy

IPGP hit target today in 35 days. Had you bought at low of 53.08 , 19 days after above post , you'd have a gain of 33.4% in 16 days. Current price is 70.81. This makes 3X uptrenders reaching target at 49/66 for 74% since last Aug 23rd.

There have only been 3 qualifiers this month, by far the fewest in the last 8 months.

-------------billy

[billyjoe]

Mr. Market has had 81% of his picks hitting the goal in the same time period. His open positions are doing better than mine since I have a couple real dogs (AXTI, ACLS) stinking up the joint.

I'm still learning from the Huge One. Hope to cut the 7% deficit down over the next few years.

Or I could just put a couple thousand on each pick from Mr.Market and the uptrenders and live with my approx. 77% winners. (79/103)

-------------billy

[Eric]

Billy, that's very impressive nonetheless. Keep up the good work.

[billyjoe]

Some more figuring. Lets say to simplify things you are right 75% of the time and make 16% profits on 75 out of 100 picks each year investing $2000 per pick. That's $24,000 not counting any reinvesting of funds. Say of the remaining 25 you had a 20% stop loss with 15 of them. You lose $6000. The remaining 10 could go either way. You still are gaining at a 4-1 ratio. Not bad.

--------------billy

[billyjoe]

4/28

CRR, AET

------billy

[lballiet]

IPGP hit target today in 35 days. Had you bought at low of 53.08 , 19 days after above post , you'd have a gain of 33.4% in 16 days. Current price is 70.81. This makes 3X uptrenders reaching target at 49/66 for 74% since last Aug 23rd.

There have only been 3 qualifiers this month, by far the fewest in the last 8 months.

-------------billy

Billy,

Have you calculated, on average, how many open positions at any one time you would have if you bought every 3X uptrenders...assuming you used a 20% stop on losing positions? I like the idea of committing, say, $1500-$2000 to every position but I don't know how much capital that would take.
Thanks for all the hard work you put in for all of us.

Larry Balliet

[billyjoe]

Larry,
I can tell you that 38 of the first 41 uptrenders hit the target between 9/1/10 and 3/30/11. Only 2 were in Feb and 1 in March. Ranging from 1 day to 107 days to achieve 16% gain. Of those only 4 took more than 60 days so I'm considering a "sell" on any open positions after 60 days. That would eliminate a potential piling up of open positions that could cause too much dead money. I've not calculated how many are stopped out at any one time and must consider whether those stopped should be repurchased as they get back into the buy zone.

Using a 9% stop 15 of the first 41 would have been sold with 12 coming back and eventually reaching goal. That's one reason a 9% stop is too conservative.

------------billy

[billyjoe]

Larry,
Just checked. 5 of the 17 open positions would be stopped at 20% loss as of today. They are RFMD, ACLS, AXTI, OPLK, and TIII. 12 of the 17 have been on the list for more than 60 days so if they were all sold only 5 open positions would remain , actually 4 since TIII is within 60 days and stopped out.

-----------billy