RiverBabe's Baby Biotechs

[riverbabe]

What Phase X Studies?

These are a couple of links to what is meant by the Phase I, IIa, IIb, III, IV clinical studies I am talking about, to help clarify:

http://www.cancer.gov/clinicaltrials/learning/what-is-a-clinical-trial

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clinical_trial (click on each of the "Phase" links for good info.)

River

[riverbabe]

lol, oh, good point. Well, in that case $5 December calls look pretty good for ALXA. Why not pick some up, at .43 they seem like a bargain.

If the FDA approves the NDA on or before Oct. 11th, the Dec. calls could be a bonanza! But, keep in mind, it's all a big gamble on a coin toss which could go either way. At least with calls, you're not risking as much!

(I have a hole in my brain when it comes to options, regardless of all those seminars and courses, as I found out the hard way. I have the utmost respect for you and Ski and others on this Forum who have the know-how to do it right.)

[riverbabe]

In your opinion, do you think RNN is worth holding long term at this price level?

Depends on how long you're willing to wait, Wooish. It will be years before they finally get to Phase III clinical study results for submission of a NDA to the FDA. I never do it. It's dead money for much much too long for me.

Their pipeline does not show anything further along than the iffy Phase IIa completed clinical trial http://www.rexahn.com/cms/index.php/portfolio/, and a couple submitted to the FDA for approval of Phase IIb studies. http://www.rexahn.com/cms/index.php/...otocol-to-fda/ Potential results are all a toss-up right now. (read big RISK).

But, as I mentioned last week about DNDN, there were some investors on the zoo board that claimed to have been in for several years when it was a 2-4 dollar stock. They are reaping returns big time. (See the through-the-wringer weekly chart of DNDN I mentioned last week). Depends how much spare change you're willing to risk for a really really long haul.

[steelman]

lol, oh, good point. Well, in that case $5 December calls look pretty good for ALXA. Why not pick some up, at .43 they seem like a bargain.

[wooish]

Steel

I think River is talking about ALXA but not ALXN

[steelman]

Alxn

River,
Thanks for giving us the 411 on ALXN. It looked good from my end and now I feel really good about the Aug calls I picked up with your analysis.

[wooish]

In your opinion, do you think RNN is worth holding long term at this price level?

[riverbabe]

Rnn

River

This stock is definately looking good in the long run, in the short term I don't see it make a huge run with the exception of a short squeeze like you just mentioned. If there is a short squeeze, it will be sometimes this week and anyone playing the spike in the short squeeze better watch closely. BTW, what do you think of RNN, it seems to lose all the momentum.

I have posted before on what I think of RNN at Pete's place. I think the previous momentum was the result of Dr. Ahn's ego-inflation, booking "Carnegie Hall" for a presumed-to-be major announcement. Traders really thought that a new partnership with big pharma (in addition to the existing TEVA partnership) was going to be announced. When all they got was iffy data (probably after-the-fact data mining where they found a subgroup of a subgroup with low number "n" of patients that showed positive but not hugely statistically significant results) from a Phase IIa study. Whoops. Momentum stalled.

[wooish]

River

This stock is definately looking good in the long run, in the short term I don't see it make a huge run with the exception of a short squeeze like you just mentioned. If there is a short squeeze, it will be sometimes this week and anyone playing the spike in the short squeeze better watch closely. BTW, what do you think of RNN, it seems to lose all the momentum.

[riverbabe]

Thanx

very nice thread, we're lucky to have a biotech expert here.

Thanks Wooish and thanks Peanuts. Am looking forward to it.

[riverbabe]

This is going to be a great part of the forum, riverbabe. I'm really looking forward to it.

What about DNDN... how much further can it run before share price acceleration defeats potential sales growth?

I think we're definitely looking at a short squeeze here. From Yahoo Finance:

Avg Vol (3 month)3: 4,789,310
Avg Vol (10 day)3: 11,550,900
Shares Outstanding5: 134.14M
Float: 132.18M
% Held by Insiders1: 8.59%
% Held by Institutions1: 59.60%
Shares Short (as of Apr 15, 2010)3: 13.12M
Short Ratio (as of Apr 15, 2010)3: 4.60
Short % of Float (as of Apr 15, 2010)3: N/A
Shares Short (prior month)3: 13.30M

As a short term player, I am watching for a good exit.

In the long term, the technology can be developed for all different kinds of cancers and is part of Dendreon's pipeline. http://dendreon.com/research-development/pipeline/

In the intermediate term, they are working on ramping up production to meet the much-anticipated demand for Provenge therapy. According to the CC, they are going-it-alone for now, sans partnership. They must have deep pockets.

It's a 3X treatment in a period of a month, @ $31k per treatment for $93k. They say it's fairly priced in comparison with other cancer treatments. Remains to be seen how much will be covered by Medicare and other insurance. But, now that it's approved it's no longer "experimental." Sales v. share price? Don't know.

[riverbabe]

there must be some anxiousness going on with ALXA this morning in front of that upcoming earnings report. down around 5-6 %

You may be right. Don't see any other news to justify it other than simple profit-taking because of it's recent run-up.

[peanuts]

This is going to be a great part of the forum, riverbabe. I'm really looking forward to it.

What about DNDN... how much further can it run before share price acceleration defeats potential sales growth?

[riverbabe]

i like the stock and would consider buying it but it's so close to reporting earnings i feel uncomfortable. but the fda approval is big if they get it. i think it's worth owning a few shares.

Thanks Ski.

[wooish]

very nice thread, we're lucky to have a biotech expert here.