RiverBabe's Baby Biotechs

[riverbabe]

Relapse - PBTH

Relapse, looks like PBTH hit a triple top @ 8.34 in last two days. More resistance here. If it breaks it later, go for the ride. We're supposed to get a short term (be nimble) boost in the next few days, according to my favorite guru. But IMHO, I would take your short term gains now and buy again on the inevitable pull-back. This could be just the "Jeffries" blip.

[TheRelapse]

Thanks a lot for the well researched reply.

I read that the teva acquisition of cogenyses would supplement teva's pipeline with some perscription drugs and not continue to limit them to generics. I don't think the fact that teva acquired the HGH from cogenyses necessarily means they will make it a generic.

I'm holding pbth into the open tomorrow and will make a decision to hold or sell when I see the trend at the open. This seems to be a good company and I will definitely be trying to buy again on a dip.

[riverbabe]

Hello TheRelapse!

Welcome to the forum! Sorry it took me so long to get back to you. I composed a neat message to you with charts and all, then promptly lost it while searching PBTH. Anyway, your first post was a good one. Looks like you know a lot about what you are doing! Look up "JohnHenry" in the Community. He is also young and good! To upload your avatar, go to User CP, avatar, click Custom and upload one of two ways. Also can do a Profile Picture by clicking on left menu appropriately. If you need help uploading charts to this forum, just ask us.

PBTH has broken out! Fantastic volume for last few days, and very bullish long-tailed hammer on the close. This is the daily, for anyone interested. They got a tremendous boost, probably due to a favorable report at the Jeffries Conference. I couldn't find it, but somebody knows something.


I was checking out the TEVA acquisition of Cogenesys from HGS when I lost this. Looks like the major technology is similar to Prolor's, adding a protein (albumin, a really HUGE protein compared to CTP, and potential immune response, BAD, if it's not human albumin) to the end of a drug to increase half-life in the body (i.e., a once-a-week dose instead of once-a-day, etc. http://blogs.wsj.com/health/2008/01/...bumin-rolling/ This link says this technology has changed hands (HGS to Novartis to Teva) a few times. Don't know much about it, but it appears TEVA wants to go generic with it eventually, so they are a PBTH competitor.

Honestly, I am not a fundamental analysis person. My eyes glaze over. So, I really can't answer the question about how this affects Teva's bottom line. Or Prolor's. I can say that if Prolor finds another partner like Merck, their pipeline will be well funded for adding their CTP to other drugs, and the list of possibilities is extensive. For now, it is still "development stage." Long term all of these stocks are high risk, but approval for sale product in Europe means the US probably won't be far behind. And, any partnership announcement will give another short term boost. 9? Can't say, but what the heck. Play a few sheckels and take your chances! Only IMHO of course. But this boost might only because of the Jeffries report. Don't let your short term profits now get away from you. This market is way too unpredictable. Take it, run, get back in on a pull back. I have seen too many of my profits dissolve in this market.

Takeover candidate? Maybe. A long wait? Possibly. Worth holding long for that purpose if you have those sheckels to spare for long term. You might be handsomely rewarded. (geez, I'm no help at all today.) River

[skiracer]

Thanks a lot for the recommendation of PBTH, I bought yesterday near the low, after it broke through the ~$6.30 resistance level, and it's up a nice 20% or so already.

I'm interested in what you guys think is a good target price. I'm thinking somewhere around $9 for the short term, is that too optimistic? I'm basing this on the huge momentum and the steadily increase in volume. Longterm, the fact that TEVA paid $400 million for a technology that is very similar to what Prolor is developing makes me think this company could reach a 1 billion market cap early into next year.

I am really clueless when it comes to biotech, but Riverbabe said the technology was solid and I know all the technicals are pointing up. Riverbabe since you really seem to understand all this medical stuff, how similar are the HGH trials that Cogenesys(the company teva bought) was performing to the ones being run by PBTH. Also, how much of Cogenyses' value was viewed as being in those trials? I feel this is a big key in evaluating PBTH. 1 last question, since this company seems to be in development stages of a bunch of drugs and treatments, how high risk is this company and is it a good takeover candidate?

Summary: I bought PBTH knowing it would be great short-term and am now thinking it may be really good long term.

I decided to start posting instead of just reading because I read some complaints of the low number of posts lately on the forum by some of the regulars. I'm 21 years old and have been investing for 5 years. I have a lot to learn but I hope I can bring something to the table.

I know I type too much.

I couldn't get my avatar to work either.

it's always better to get your thoughts out there in the open. the interaction will also make you better at this in the long run. another thought is that you reap what you sow. if you have friends that are lurking tell them to post their thoughts or questions. the more the better will end up growing and producing a much better forum. thanks for taking the leap.

[TheRelapse]

Thanks a lot for the recommendation of PBTH, I bought yesterday near the low, after it broke through the ~$6.30 resistance level, and it's up a nice 20% or so already.

I'm interested in what you guys think is a good target price. I'm thinking somewhere around $9 for the short term, is that too optimistic? I'm basing this on the huge momentum and the steadily increase in volume. Longterm, the fact that TEVA paid $400 million for a technology that is very similar to what Prolor is developing makes me think this company could reach a 1 billion market cap early into next year.

I am really clueless when it comes to biotech, but Riverbabe said the technology was solid and I know all the technicals are pointing up. Riverbabe since you really seem to understand all this medical stuff, how similar are the HGH trials that Cogenesys(the company teva bought) was performing to the ones being run by PBTH. Also, how much of Cogenyses' value was viewed as being in those trials? I feel this is a big key in evaluating PBTH. 1 last question, since this company seems to be in development stages of a bunch of drugs and treatments, how high risk is this company and is it a good takeover candidate?

Summary: I bought PBTH knowing it would be great short-term and am now thinking it may be really good long term.

I decided to start posting instead of just reading because I read some complaints of the low number of posts lately on the forum by some of the regulars. I'm 21 years old and have been investing for 5 years. I have a lot to learn but I hope I can bring something to the table.

I know I type too much.

I couldn't get my avatar to work either.

[riverbabe]

Dcth again

Another case of investor panic? Another finicky biotech stock? You need nerves of steel to invest in them, folks. Disclosure: I am a Delcathian, still holding long, although in the red. Probably will add very soon.

This is more information, including a great video. Stock stabilizing at this hour.

Wall Street Media Presents Eric Whitman, MD on Delcath's Positive Clinical Results

Companieselcath Systems Inc. Related Quotes
Symbol Price Change
DCTH 11.25 +0.42

Press Release Source: Wall Street Media On Monday June 7, 2010, 5:45 pm EDT
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Wall Street Media presents an exclusive video of Dr. Eric Whitman, a highly regarded surgical oncologist who specializes in melanoma and is Director of the Atlantic Melanoma Center. Dr. Whitman attended the American Society of Clinical Oncology’s (ASCO) Annual Meeting, where he took special note of a presentation on Delcath’s (NasdaqCTH - News) PHP study. Dr. Whitman stresses that PHP has proven to be clinically effective.

Please visit the following link to view the video:
http://wsmco.com/show.aspx?1661_Very...e_DCTH_Results

Delcath's PHP clinical trials have focused on a certain melanoma spread to the liver.

Some key factors we think were overlooked or misunderstood in today's market action are:

Survival rate tripled for cancer patients treated with PHP (Percutaneous Hepatic Perfusion) - 398 days vs. 124 with best alternative care
The data was even better than the initial press release from April. The hepatic PFS (primary endpoint) was 245 days in the PHP arm and 49 days in the BAC (best alternative care) arm
$745 million is the estimate for peak annual U.S. sales, if PHP is approved by the FDA
Potential increase to $5.6 billion if this treatment is used in primary liver cancer as well as metastases from other types of cancer

We discuss the vast potential for Delcath's PHP system:

The majority of the cases are not in the US, 80% of liver cancer is in Asia
The possibility for huge "off-label" use
The possibility for Delcath's PHP system to be used for many other cancer treatments in future

On his blog at http://drericwhitman.wordpress.com/ Dr. Whitman states "There is no question in my mind that this is clinically effective."

Hmm...posted this and the smilies showed up. They must have been hidden in the text. Somebody's idea of some fun?

[riverbabe]

Dcth

Hi River;

It appears there are some negative news at ASCO re: Delcath.

Delcath's drug delivery system helped melanoma patients whose cancer had spread to their liver, live more than three times as long as patients treated with best available care. But one researcher said the system causes "a fair amount of toxicity" and would need to be used only at centers with expertise in monitoring patients.

Is this that unusual? I would think that any kind of treatment like this would have serious toxicity where it would require monitoring, wouldn't it?

Stock back down to $11. Is this a buying opportunity or a hold and watch?
You thoughts?

Thanks again. I really appreciate your information and feedback!

-Adam

The negative comments at the meeting weren't about the toxicity, although the problem was severe neutropenia and infection because there was leakage from the device into the blood stream/bone marrow. Instead, the comments were that there are only about 1000 patients in the USA that could even use the treatment. The rebuttal was that there is a tremendous market in Asia.

There was some discussion in the media about it possibly being overpriced at the present level. The investors are mostly retail, not institutional. They call us the "Delcathians." Because of the potential market and pricing discussion, I expected it to go down today. I am planning on averaging down soon. Maybe not today...wait to see the dust clear a little. Better buying opportunity soon I think.

[tiedyed1]

re: Delcath and ASCO

Hi River;

It appears there are some negative news at ASCO re: Delcath.

Delcath's drug delivery system helped melanoma patients whose cancer had spread to their liver, live more than three times as long as patients treated with best available care. But one researcher said the system causes "a fair amount of toxicity" and would need to be used only at centers with expertise in monitoring patients.

Is this that unusual? I would think that any kind of treatment like this would have serious toxicity where it would require monitoring, wouldn't it?

Stock back down to $11. Is this a buying opportunity or a hold and watch?
You thoughts?

Thanks again. I really appreciate your information and feedback!

-Adam

[Peter Hansen]

River Thanx

This Israeli company Prolor is pretty impressive. The CTP technology makes scientific sense (it was developed at Washington University, St. Louis), there is a great potential market for the eventual products, Merck has taken one of Prolor's licensed products through Phase III clinical trials and has received marketing approval from the EC (European) for marketing in Europe. They (Prolor) have other products in the pipeline, although none currently in Phase III; but the list of uses for this CTP technology (adding a very small protein to the end of a therapeutic protein to extend its half-life in the body) seems endless. They are currently seeking other partners.

The company is covered currently by two analysts. They completed a stock offering of $24.4M in March 2010. And, the Chairman of the Board is the Vice-Chairman of the Board of Governors of AMEX!!! (jeepers)

They are presenting at the 2010 Jeffries Global Life Sciences conference on June 8, 2010 at 11:30 AM. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/PROLOR....html?x=0&.v=1

They rang the opening bell at NYSE/AMEX on June 3rd. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Spence....html?x=0&.v=1

Okay, I can stop now with the FA attempt. Let's go to the TA:

The hype associated with the presenting and ringing above must be giving the stock a boost.

Pete, I'm not going to post the charts here because you can read them as well as me. The stock gapped up (daily) on June 1st and continued up June 2nd on above average volume, probably in anticipation of the bell ringing. Then it hit the resistance (6.32) that first became apparent on 5/12 (6.34). Double top. Wonder if the buyers of the March stock offering decided it was time to take profits. Since then, more profit-taking on above average down volume.

That was a lot of stock they offered in March. It may take a while for this profit-taking to work itself through. Also, on the weekly 6.34 looks like the end of the 5 up Elliott wave, and may be going into an abc correction.
Can only speculate if the pps will get a boost from the Tuesday June 8th presentation. If it does, I would look for more profit-taking.

This is a great company Pete with a whole lot of great connections, money, and a business plan. Any announcement about a potential new partnership, etc. would surely give it a boost. But, in the meantime IMHO, it needs to work thru the resistance. If it breaks it decisively on big volume, with an announcement impetus, I'd get in. Good luck, and thanks for bringing it here.

River thanx for such a great analysis , I have not bought it yet but seriously looking.

[riverbabe]

Pbth

River, Bio Tech Stock analyst extraordinaire, do ya have any info on PBTH. It appears to have a great chart?

This Israeli company Prolor is pretty impressive. The CTP technology makes scientific sense (it was developed at Washington University, St. Louis), there is a great potential market for the eventual products, Merck has taken one of Prolor's licensed products through Phase III clinical trials and has received marketing approval from the EC (European) for marketing in Europe. They (Prolor) have other products in the pipeline, although none currently in Phase III; but the list of uses for this CTP technology (adding a very small protein to the end of a therapeutic protein to extend its half-life in the body) seems endless. They are currently seeking other partners.

The company is covered currently by two analysts. They completed a stock offering of $24.4M in March 2010. And, the Chairman of the Board is the Vice-Chairman of the Board of Governors of AMEX!!! (jeepers)

They are presenting at the 2010 Jeffries Global Life Sciences conference on June 8, 2010 at 11:30 AM. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/PROLOR....html?x=0&.v=1

They rang the opening bell at NYSE/AMEX on June 3rd. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Spence....html?x=0&.v=1

Okay, I can stop now with the FA attempt. Let's go to the TA:

The hype associated with the presenting and ringing above must be giving the stock a boost.

Pete, I'm not going to post the charts here because you can read them as well as me. The stock gapped up (daily) on June 1st and continued up June 2nd on above average volume, probably in anticipation of the bell ringing. Then it hit the resistance (6.32) that first became apparent on 5/12 (6.34). Double top. Wonder if the buyers of the March stock offering decided it was time to take profits. Since then, more profit-taking on above average down volume.

That was a lot of stock they offered in March. It may take a while for this profit-taking to work itself through. Also, on the weekly 6.34 looks like the end of the 5 up Elliott wave, and may be going into an abc correction.
Can only speculate if the pps will get a boost from the Tuesday June 8th presentation. If it does, I would look for more profit-taking.

This is a great company Pete with a whole lot of great connections, money, and a business plan. Any announcement about a potential new partnership, etc. would surely give it a boost. But, in the meantime IMHO, it needs to work thru the resistance. If it breaks it decisively on big volume, with an announcement impetus, I'd get in. Good luck, and thanks for bringing it here.

[riverbabe]

Sorry to keep harping on this, but thot the following was interesting:

[Comment From T.K. Horeis T.K. Horeis : ]
So what have been the most interesting or surprising results you've seen thus far? Saturday June 5, 2010 1:42 T.K. Horeis


1:44 adam feuerstein: Nothing surprising yet. And nothing dramatically great, either. Honestly, i think most of the institutional investors here are more worried about the state of the market than they are about cancer-focused biotech stocks. At dinner last night with some hedge fund friends, they're freaking out a bit about the market.


Saturday June 5, 2010 1:44 adam feuerstein

1:49 adam feuerstein: I said this yesterday on twitter but i'll repeat it here, i'm struck by how much Big Pharma is dominating the conversation at this year's ASCO meeting. Nearly all of the big data presentations highlighted by ASCO are coming out of Big Pharma. This shift in power from biotech to BIg Pharma is not new, but it's very pronounced this year.

This doesn't mean the ASCO meeting is a dud for biotech, just that the impact of this meeting for biotech, particularly small call biotech, might be muted.
Saturday June 5, 2010 1:49 adam feuerstein

1:51 adam feuerstein: But i know you guys understand (or you should) that the "ASCO trade" is already over. Selling in ASCO-related stocks has already started and don't be surprised to see it continue Monday. (The dismal direction of the overall market isn't helping matters, for sure.)

The silver lining, of course, is that selling does create buying opportunities.


Saturday June 5, 2010 1:51 adam feuerstein

2:05 adam feuerstein: I'm getting pitched on all sides by companies with GBM (brain tumor) drugs... weird. this was a clinical backwater for years, now, it's hot. -- Celldex, ImmunoCellular, Exelixis, Roche/Genentech. I just heard another pitch from a privately held Israeli company, Novocure, with a GBM device that apparently posted positive phase III data.
Saturday June 5, 2010 2:05 adam feuerstein

AND

4:04 adam feuerstein: I have my seat for the DCTH presentation. I had to walk to Indiana to get here.
Saturday June 5, 2010 4:04 adam feuerstein

4:06 adam feuerstein: I ventured outside on my way over here, passing a gaggle of cancer docs smoking. i see this at every ASCO, still makes me laugh.
Saturday June 5, 2010 4:06 adam feuerstein

[riverbabe]

Pbth

River, Bio Tech Stock analyst extraordinaire, do ya have any info on PBTH. It appears to have a great chart?

Pete, I'll get back to you tomorrow on this.

[riverbabe]

Curis, for Tiedyed1

Thanks for the feedback on CRIS. Those poster presentations must be very tedious and I guess part of the game. I know some people trading it and now I can better understand why. It will sit in the trading range it has been in for years forward. I was and still am curious why it was added to the Nasdaq Biotech Index with so much in question looking ahead; but i guess that is just the prominent nature of most biotechs?

I appreciate you sharing your criteria and am rooting for your DelCath to hit a payday more sooner than later!

Thanks again; Adam
tiedyed1

This is the latest on the live blog (see below) on CRIS! Sounds goods!
adam feuerstein: last presentation on GDC-0449 from Curis. (hey! it's a small cap bio, so pay attention!!!)
Saturday June 5, 2010 10:50 adam feuerstein

10:51 adam feuerstein: first report on activity of GDC-0449 in patients with medulloblastoma (the most common brain tumor in children)
Saturday June 5, 2010 10:51 adam feuerstein

10:51 adam feuerstein: about 400 kids in the U.S. are diagnosed iwth medulloblastoma each year
Saturday June 5, 2010 10:51 adam feuerstein

10:53 adam feuerstein: Small, phase I study show encouraging activity. 12/13 children with recurrent or drug-resistant medulloblastoma tolerated drug well without significant side effects. one patients remained on drug for more than a year without disease progression - very atypical in this disease.
Saturday June 5, 2010 10:53 adam feuerstein

10:55 adam feuerstein: Will be interesting to see if Curis sees some action monday based on these data. Recall, Curis is partnered with Roche/Genentech. GDC-0449 is also being studied in other tumor types.

[Peter Hansen]

Pbth

River, Bio Tech Stock analyst extraordinaire, do ya have any info on PBTH. It appears to have a great chart?

[riverbabe]

Live feed from ASCO re. DCTH & others

This link is to a live feed blog today by Adam Feuerstein from TheStreet.com at the meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology in Chicago.

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10773728/1/asco-live-blog-saturday.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Delcath (DCTH) presents at 3:30 PM. Up 39 cents in the AH market to 15.04. He is also reporting on other presentations, so if your favorite baby biotech or big pharma is presenting today, pay attention. Good luck to all. This is one of the "biggie" meetings.

Willing to answer any questions you have, if I can. River