RiverBabe's Baby Biotechs

[riverbabe]

dmk ARNA + VVUS

ARNA looks interesting, VVUS got dumped today. Trade any of those River?

Haven't traded these, but followed the news yesterday that Vivus' obesity drug was denied approval for sale by FDA committee. http://www.xconomy.com/san-francisco...in-close-vote/

Just goes to show 'ya, good data doesn't necessarily mean approval. They were denied because of side effects and long term safety data. (Disclosure: one of the ingredients is topiramate, which I am extremely allergic to. Yuk) But is this an excuse because of FDA "bias?" (see below).

For further amusement, check this out: http://www.thestreet.com/story/10806...ory-panel.html

Vivus doesn't have much of anything else in the pipeline except a phase 3 clinical trial of an oral ED drug, with results expected in late 2010. I don't put too much faith in a competitor for the little blue pill and the other one either. Stockcharts shows how much Vivus dropped after the announcement. Ouch. I wouldn't touch it here.

The announcement obviously has an effect on Arena Pharm also, since they have submitted their obesity drug lorcaserin phase 3 clinical data for approval, on or before October 22, 2010. It doesn't look good for this one either unless the FDA changes their bias for exercise instead of drugs. http://blogs.wsj.com/health/2010/07/.../?mod=yahoo_hs

But, Arena's works as a serotonin inhibitor, like many other drugs. Maybe there won't be a problem.

A little too much risk for my tolerance, altho buying it if it pulls back Mon+ on the news, and selling on a run up before the Oct. announcement would be a possibility. A really low-ball bid I think, around $3-3.50, or raise it slightly if it starts to look better on volume. I wouldn't bet the farm. Good luck dmk. And thanks for bringing these here.

[Peter Hansen]

Bvf

River check out BVF ......Vector Vest says it is UNDERVALUED and should be worth about 24 bucks. BVF also pays an annual dividend of $1.40 Per share ......and the chart is popping!

[dmk112]

ARNA looks interesting, VVUS got dumped today. Trade any of those River?

[riverbabe]

Hi River
Any thoughts on the recent move here? Thanks for what you bring here!

Hi Toxo,

I don't see any news-driven trading here, with the possible exceptions of the July 12,2010 announcement of the next (huge market potential) active product candidate Staccato Nicotine http://nocache-phx.corporate-ir.net/...ews&id=1446346 and the July 6 SEC filing re. the amended manufacturing agreement with Autoliv. http://biz.yahoo.com/e/100706/alxa8-k.html
The latter agreement suggests that when and if they get FDA approval on or before October 11, 2010 they will be ready to go to market immediately. That's a good sign.

The uptrending channel shown on the weekly below makes me think buyers are getting into position to cash in on potential approval in Oct. and/or in anticipation of earnings report 8/5/2010. I don't see any other reasons except the above. BTW, thanks for asking! It forces me do my homework!

http://img85.imageshack.us/img85/8148/alxaweeklyannotated.png

[toxo]

alxa

Hi River
Any thoughts on the recent move here? Thanks for what you bring here!

[billyjoe]

River,
Now you've got me scared. Maybe I'll take a .25 gain and bail...................just kidding.

---------billy

[riverbabe]

Actg

Acacia Research Corporation (ACTG): Billy, looks like you have found a potential big winner here (but see BUT below). It is one cash cow company. Their officers make $324K-$474K per year plus stock options and bonuses, although that might only just cover what it costs to live in Newport Beach, CA.

These are their rather formidable profiles: http://people.forbes.com/profile/paul-r-ryan/641; http://people.forbes.com/profile/robert-l-harris/642; http://people.forbes.com/profile/clayton-j-haynes/634;
(This is the head patent guy, Dooyong Lee)http://www.law.northwestern.edu/news...m?eventid=1693
(This is the other patent guy, Edward J. Treska

http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/people/person.asp?personId=33455570&ticker=ACTG:US

BUT
Now, here is the bad part: They apparently have a subsidiary called "Global Patent Holdings" that is not-affectionately called a "patent troll". http://ipbiz.blogspot.com/2004/12/ac...of-global.html To tell more of their story, this link is to an exemplary experience with a particular patent (you have to scroll all the way down to the comments, and the last comment says it's "dead" -- finally). http://patentfizz.com/fizzdisplay.php?patno=5253341.

For a shorter version of this same story, see http://www.techdirt.com/blog.php?com...atent+holdings. (Disclosure: I know Greg Aharonian. He's the good guy who got sued for speaking his mind.)

Is this a good investment? Like I said, it is a cash cow and it takes risks post-patent that the inventors wouldn't be able to afford. When they win, they win big. When they lose, that's show-biz folks. See any and all the recent headlines at yahoo finance: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=ACTG+Headlines

Swallow hard, close at least one eye, and go for it billy!

[riverbabe]

River,
Call me crazy but I just bought 500 ACTG @14.73. The optimist in me will do me in yet.

-----------billy

The chart is really interesting. Looks like you got in on an upswing. Great. Just for fun checked it with Pete's "Fox" analysis -- has a 60% up chance. (Am looking at the co. etc. now so will get back to you today.)

[billyjoe]

River,
Call me crazy but I just bought 500 ACTG @14.73. The optimist in me will do me in yet.

-----------billy

[riverbabe]

River,
Have I got a stock for you! Not a biotech but just as good, deals in patents. This one has been popping up on my radar for months and I may have to buy it now. It is..............you ready? Uptrender ACTG. You'll like what you see with this one.

------------billy

billy, just want you to know, I'm not ignoring you. Spent all day yesterday driving, today at a funeral, tomorrow driving again. Have a good idea what this company does. Will respond ASAP. River

[billyjoe]

River,
Have I got a stock for you! Not a biotech but just as good, deals in patents. This one has been popping up on my radar for months and I may have to buy it now. It is..............you ready? Uptrender ACTG. You'll like what you see with this one.

------------billy

[riverbabe]

I'm really enjoying this thread, River. Technically, DNDN looks good right here at $40.59... I'd like to see it keep its head above the $40 marker

I'm watching this one like a hawk. I like less than 39, which is where I first had it and sold at about 52. I held off when it was there last week because am thinking the market is still going down and it will go with the flow.

They keep filing SEC form 4s, I think the options holders among the insiders are cashing in. This keeps supply up and pps down. They have filed about 30 of these or more since the good news. (I get email notification). I'm waiting for that supply to slow down before the price heads higher.

http://investor.dendreon.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=120739&p=irol-sec

[peanuts]

I'm really enjoying this thread, River. Technically, DNDN looks good right here at $40.59... I'd like to see it keep its head above the $40 marker

[TheRelapse]

I sold at $8.32 on monday, since then its down around 10%, I'm looking to get back in this stock longterm if it drops under $7 again. It's currently at $7.62.

[TheRelapse]

PBTH just went positive for the day and broke through the $8.34 resistance. Are you viewing this as a very positive sign heading into next week or do you still think a pullback is in order. I'm sure there will be a pullback, but after todays action I think it will be a bit higher. I may take profits at the close, not sure yet, still trying to analyze what today meant for this stock.