RiverBabe's Baby Biotechs

[dmk112]

Take-over chatter was buzzing regarding Mankind today (MNKD)... I was eyeing this one the other day to start scaling in but missed this 9% move!

Shares of MannKind Corporation (MNKD) have rallied more than 9% so far today, with the stock beating a steady path higher throughout the session. No news in particular seems to be driving MNKD higher -- although Tiernan Ray of Barron's reports that unsubstantiated buyout rumors could be the source of today's positive momentum.

However, the stock hasn't yet rallied high enough to challenge resistance at its 10-month moving average. This stubborn trendline ceiling has held MNKD in check since March, ushering the shares to a year-to-date deficit of more than 30%.

Nevertheless, call players have flocked to MNKD today. Call volume has surged to nine times the norm, with roughly 26,000 contracts changing hands. Most active are the equity's February 2011 10-strike call, with 4,395 contracts trading, and the October 7 call, where 4,379 contracts have been exchanged. With MNKD hovering near $6.70 at last look, both of these popular calls are out of the money.

Given the equity's breakout rally today, it's entirely possible that short sellers are the driving force behind this ramped-up call volume. With nearly 21% of the stock's float sold short, there are plenty of bearish bettors who might be looking to hedge against a continued climb by MNKD.

[dmk112]

Yahoo message boards are not raving about ALXA. Just picked up this link over there. http://www.gekkowire.com/?p=5004

This is the (to gekko) offending passage on page 2: (of course he doesn't mention that the studies were in patients who already had COPD or asthma).

"AZ-004 (Staccato loxapine). Alexza is developing AZ-004 for the acute treatment of agitation in patients with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder. During the third quarter, Alexza completed the enrollment and data analysis of the two remaining AZ-004 non-pivotal safety and NDA-supporting studies. These studies were a pulmonary safety study in subjects with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or COPD and a pulmonary safety study in subjects with asthma.
Alexza completed a Phase 1 placebo-controlled study in 53 subjects with predominantly moderate-to-severe COPD and a Phase 1 placebo-controlled study in 52 subjects with mild-to-moderate persistent asthma, to assess the pulmonary safety of AZ-004 in these populations. The studies employed double-blind, parallel-group designs. In each study, subjects were given two doses of Staccato placebo or 10 mg AZ-004, ten hours apart. Spirometry testing and other safety assessments were performed at several time points up to 24 hours after the second dose. The primary safety measure was FEV1 (forced expiratory volume in one second), a standard test of lung function. Decreases in FEV1 versus baseline, respiratory symptoms, and use of a quick-relief bronchodilator occurred in both treatment groups, but were more frequent in each study after treatment with AZ-004. There were no serious or severe respiratory adverse events. All respiratory symptoms developing after treatment were either self-limiting or readily managed with the inhaled bronchodilator. " http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/da...999exv99w1.htm

I'm bidding 2.85 - 3.00 on this one..

[riverbabe]

More on ALXA

Yahoo message boards are not raving about ALXA. Just picked up this link over there. http://www.gekkowire.com/?p=5004

This is the (to gekko) offending passage on page 2: (of course he doesn't mention that the studies were in patients who already had COPD or asthma).

"AZ-004 (Staccato loxapine). Alexza is developing AZ-004 for the acute treatment of agitation in patients with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder. During the third quarter, Alexza completed the enrollment and data analysis of the two remaining AZ-004 non-pivotal safety and NDA-supporting studies. These studies were a pulmonary safety study in subjects with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or COPD and a pulmonary safety study in subjects with asthma.
Alexza completed a Phase 1 placebo-controlled study in 53 subjects with predominantly moderate-to-severe COPD and a Phase 1 placebo-controlled study in 52 subjects with mild-to-moderate persistent asthma, to assess the pulmonary safety of AZ-004 in these populations. The studies employed double-blind, parallel-group designs. In each study, subjects were given two doses of Staccato placebo or 10 mg AZ-004, ten hours apart. Spirometry testing and other safety assessments were performed at several time points up to 24 hours after the second dose. The primary safety measure was FEV1 (forced expiratory volume in one second), a standard test of lung function. Decreases in FEV1 versus baseline, respiratory symptoms, and use of a quick-relief bronchodilator occurred in both treatment groups, but were more frequent in each study after treatment with AZ-004. There were no serious or severe respiratory adverse events. All respiratory symptoms developing after treatment were either self-limiting or readily managed with the inhaled bronchodilator. " http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/da...999exv99w1.htm

[riverbabe]

Biotech calendar

Just found Adam Feuerstein's new October Biotech Calendar.

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10874282/1/biotech-calendar-key-dates-for-october.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

[riverbabe]

Hi River,
Just wondering what your thoughts are on ALXA these days. I have some but it's in a negative position right now. Could be some manipulation before a good run up or could be those in the know selling off Any info?

I'm red too. But intend to hold on until the last minute. It's been up a little, down a little for a long time now. There should be some interest and action beginning the first of the week IMHO. There were some big lots bot and sold yesterday. Could just be institutional end of quarter window dressing. Or, heaven forbid, somebody knows something. In that case, we might see more selling if it goes up. If it's big selling, well, we need to be vigilant...

Short interest has been climbing since June. Now 8.8% of the float (as of 9/15). Rose 14.97% since 8/31 (Barron's). Gonna' be a heck of a short squeeze if the news is positive. http://www.dailyfinance.com/company/...short-interest

[edward]

Hi River,
Just wondering what your thoughts are on ALXA these days. I have some but it's in a negative position right now. Could be some manipulation before a good run up or could be those in the know selling off Any info?

[riverbabe]

River, THANK YOU for taking the time to research this one.

I got in early last week plus also have Nov 12.50 call options so I am a happy camper at this time.

I was surprised at the recent pop and also worried about the toppiness, but the volume that drove that pop was serious too. Maybe it was anticipation of Maribavir, which is in Phase III clinical development stage for the prevention and treatment of cytomegalovirus infections related to transplants?

I am glad I brought it to your attention and always appreciate your biotech feedback! Hope we all make some money on VPHM!
-Adam
tiedyed1

Great call Adam!
Nice calls Adam!
Thank you for bringing it here!

[tiedyed1]

River, THANK YOU for taking the time to research this one.

I got in early last week plus also have Nov 12.50 call options so I am a happy camper at this time.

I was surprised at the recent pop and also worried about the toppiness, but the volume that drove that pop was serious too. Maybe it was anticipation of Maribavir, which is in Phase III clinical development stage for the prevention and treatment of cytomegalovirus infections related to transplants?

I am glad I brought it to your attention and always appreciate your biotech feedback! Hope we all make some money on VPHM!
-Adam
tiedyed1

[riverbabe]

tiedyed VPHM

Hi River;

VPHM came up on Pete's list years ago and has recently made Mr. Markets data dump numerous times this year.

This stock looks like it is starting to make a move and may be worth looking at and I would appreciate any opinion you may have on this one.

Thanks so much; -Adam
tiedyed1

I like everything about this stock. Great fundamentals. Basically they have two products, both making good money for them. One is Vancocin (a well known "last resort" antibiotic, vancomycin) used to treat C. difficile infections. I personally have know several people, friends, who have died of this horrible disease. Viropharma has just shown that treating people with Vancocin to wipe out both normal bowel flora and toxin-producing C. difficile and then giving them non-toxin-producing C. difficile works to repopulate the bowel with the good one and keep out the bad one.

Only problem is that vancomycin doesn't have any non-expired patents so the generic companies are trying to pounce. Viropharma has filed a petition with the FDA to try to keep the generics out. http://www.thecre.com/quality/2006/2...b_quality.html and http://biz.yahoo.com/e/100910/vphm8-k.html and http://www.reuters.com/article/idCNS...0100910?rpc=44
But this eventually could become a problem.

In the meantime, their second product, is also doing well and producing $$.

Their C1 esterase inhibitor (human) is given to people who genetically lack or have a reduced amount and have hereditary angioedema. This condition can be fatal. I once had "acquired" angioedema from taking an antibiotic long term. It is scary. All of a sudden, for no apparent reason, different parts of your body swell up. Like, my eyes would be swollen shut in the morning. Or, I'd be in a meeting and, for no reason at all, my lower lip would swell almost to the breaking point. Or my upper lip. Or both. Just think what will happen when your larynx or trachea swell. Oops, can't swallow or can't breathe. Like I said, scary and can be fatal.

So they are not only approved for this for adults but are also testing for pediatric use. They are also testing this for two different uses for donor organ (kidney) preservation in transplants to try to prevent or reduce rejection. I LOVE THIS COMPANY.

So, the technicals. Is now the time to buy? Or wait for a pullback? The market is toppy and VPHM has been on a roll. It just broke out of trading range on the daily and the 9 dma seems to be holding as support.

It currently is showing a double top in the weekly. But volume is good. It is walking up the 9 dma and there is support at the 50. The 50 just crossed above the 200 (the "golden cross"), although you shouldn't trade based only on this.

Stoch showing overbot both daily and weekly. Accumulation lessening. Could be a short term topping. For the long term, I think it's going up. For the short term, all the good news might be built into the price. Would like to see a pull back to the 50 dma, altho I don't think it'll get there. I'd personally like a beginning position at today's low (14.64) and then average in from there. Depends on what the market is going to do today. Wait and see...

[billyjoe]

Analysis in progress. But I like this stock at about 14.53 today for partial position. Didn't want to keep you waiting. I'm putting in a bid there also.

River,
I like the 14.53 bid for VPHM. It always surprises me how much lower a high flying stock will go on a fast dip especially if one buys it with a market order. Looking at VPHM's chart 14.30 looks very nice. Thanks for bringing it our attention.

----------billy

[riverbabe]

tiedyed - VPHM

Thanks River.
I appreciate you taking the time. In addition to Mr. Market's data dump, VPHM is also coming up on a pay service and hopefully a good one to share with this board!

Analysis in progress. But I like this stock at about 14.53 today for partial position. Didn't want to keep you waiting. I'm putting in a bid there also.

[billyjoe]

VPHM forecast earnings next 12 months +28%

sales +33%

--------billy

[tiedyed1]

Vphm

Adam, I'll try to get to this before the open tomorrow. I took a quick look and love what they do. River

Thanks River.
I appreciate you taking the time. In addition to Mr. Market's data dump, VPHM is also coming up on a pay service and hopefully a good one to share with this board!

[dmk112]

Great article on 10 bio plays for year end. http://seekingalpha.com/article/2271...-binary-events

[dmk112]

Here we go again with Dendreon as a learning tool. Astra-Zeneca's prostate drug has failed, now benefitting Dendreon's Provenge. DNDN up another 1% or so this AM on the news.

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/stor...FREE&cm_ite=NA

quick spike to 40ish today... looks like a shakeout to me.

Avanir continues it's rise!! Up another 4+%