RiverBabe's Baby Biotechs

[riverbabe]

tiedyed

Hi River;

VPHM came up on Pete's list years ago and has recently made Mr. Markets data dump numerous times this year.

This stock looks like it is starting to make a move and may be worth looking at and I would appreciate any opinion you may have on this one.

Thanks so much; -Adam
tiedyed1

Adam, I'll try to get to this before the open tomorrow. I took a quick look and love what they do. River

[riverbabe]

dndn -case in point

Here we go again with Dendreon as a learning tool. Astra-Zeneca's prostate drug has failed, now benefitting Dendreon's Provenge. DNDN up another 1% or so this AM on the news.

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10871543/1/astrazeneca-prostate-cancer-drug-fails.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

[dmk112]

Bought a small position of ARNA today @ 1.72... looks like it bottomed. Also scaled in AVNR.

AVNR up & ARNA down. AVNR is sure looking good... I can't imagine ARNA moving much further down (stops @ 1.50)

[dmk112]

AVNR nice day today, I hope to get a p/b to add shares. PDUFA is coming up in October. thanks for all the notes river.

[tiedyed1]

Vphm?

Hi River;

VPHM came up on Pete's list years ago and has recently made Mr. Markets data dump numerous times this year.

This stock looks like it is starting to make a move and may be worth looking at and I would appreciate any opinion you may have on this one.

Thanks so much; -Adam
tiedyed1

[riverbabe]

Fda Advisory Committees 2010 calendar

http://www.fda.gov/AdvisoryCommittees/Calendar/default.htm

These committees recommend to the FDA. A negative recommendation is not good.

Below: who met with whom calendar. Note second one lists a meeting between DCTH CEO and FDA official.

http://www.fda.gov/NewsEvents/MeetingsConferencesWorkshops/PastMeetingsWithFDAOfficials/2010PublicCalendars/default.htm

http://www.fda.gov/NewsEvents/MeetingsConferencesWorkshops/PastMeetingsWithFDAOfficials/2010PublicCalendars/ucm226533.htm

[riverbabe]

I'm getting into this lol.. Do you have PDUFA date calendar by any chance?

A few I found that are interesting with PDUFA dates coming up in the next few months along with some bottoming patters:

CPIX MNKD

I posted about MNKD below. Will look at CPIX a little later, busy right now (real work, 'ya know?).

[riverbabe]

Fda/pdufa

I'm getting into this lol.. Do you have PDUFA date calendar by any chance?

A few I found that are interesting with PDUFA dates coming up in the next few months along with some bottoming patters:

CPIX MNKD

This is an interesting link for those who are not aware, to "what is a PDUFA?"

http://www.eyeonfda.com/eye_on_fda/pdufa/

The FDA does not publish a calendar because the info. is proprietary to each company. But there are blogs and web sites out there that put together calendars. There is one on you friend welsh's twitter, but it is not very complete. Adam Feurerstein puts together an abbreviated calendar for what he considers the ones he's interested in. I don't invest in each and every one, so I just find calendars as they become available on the web, not very methodically.

[riverbabe]

Cool.. what is your strategy on buying these? Buy a few months before the event, hold, and sell before the decision?

Buy not before 6 months ahead. I usually average in, usually down. Keep track of whether they are "fast track" at FDA, meaning they have constant dialogue with FDA before decision so that they can correct problems ahead of time. Watch rivals with parallel technology with FDA decision ahead of yours. Sell on any spike before decision only if you're unsure because of rival decisions. Keep up with the news, email alerts, web site. Watch the pundits for their views on it's chances. Again, sell on spike only if you get cold feet and are well into the green.

But if you are nimble and quick you can catch the decision immediately when it's made only by watching the stock price, because the actual news lags by too long. If it leaps up, it's positive. If it plummets, get the he$$ out STAT.

Plummet -- quick but tough decision, market or limit. It's going to blow through a regular stop sell and it will become market. Limit? it might not hit twice. Panic? market STAT and thank god you got out with a sizable piece of your shirt intact.

[dmk112]

Bought a small position of ARNA today @ 1.72... looks like it bottomed. Also scaled in AVNR.

[dmk112]

I'm getting into this lol.. Do you have PDUFA date calendar by any chance?

A few I found that are interesting with PDUFA dates coming up in the next few months along with some bottoming patters:

CPIX MNKD

[dmk112]

Yea! A job at DNDN, go for it if there's something you would be interested in! They just inked a deal with Glaxco Smith Klein for manufacture of the antigen. I think they're an up and coming takeover candidate maybe.

I locked in a good profit in DNDN and am waiting for another pull back to re-enter. I have ALXA (imminent FDA decision) and BMRN (possible TO candidate). And sitting on some DCTH (red) waiting for filing of an FDA application -- looking for lots of good news in third or fourth quarter.

I'll look at johnw. Thanks.

Cool.. what is your strategy on buying these? Buy a few months before the event, hold, and sell before the decision?

[riverbabe]

Dndn

River, besides DNDN - which one of these are you holding? They have a place close to my house in Morris Plains, maybe I should apply for a job there....ha! Also, I recommend checking out johnwelshphd on twitter, he trades biotech very often and has been very profitable doing so.

Yea! A job at DNDN, go for it if there's something you would be interested in! They just inked a deal with Glaxco Smith Klein for manufacture of the antigen. I think they're an up and coming takeover candidate maybe.

I locked in a good profit in DNDN and am waiting for another pull back to re-enter. I have ALXA (imminent FDA decision) and BMRN (possible TO candidate). And sitting on some DCTH (red) waiting for filing of an FDA application -- looking for lots of good news in third or fourth quarter.

I'll look at johnw. Thanks.

[riverbabe]

Vvus

been watching VVUS... bought it the other day, got stopped out, and of course today it soars

River, what are your latest thoughts on this one?

One positive follow-up study doth not an FDA approval guarantee. Reading further about both VVUS and ARNA gave me goose bumps. Both of these are way too volatile for my comfort zone.

[dmk112]

River, besides DNDN - which one of these are you holding? They have a place close to my house in Morris Plains, maybe I should apply for a job there....ha! Also, I recommend checking out johnwelshphd on twitter, he trades biotech very often and has been very profitable doing so.