Okay, took a look at Keryx Pharmaceuticals (KERX). They essentially have two products. One is in Phase 2 clinical trials (long time away). The other is in Phase 3 clinical trials under FDA study guidelines (this is good).
BUT, although part one of the Phase 3 trial (a short term study) is expected to complete in 4Q 2010, the part two long term study will take much much longer -- "Patient enrollment is expected to take approximately 6 to 9 months." and it is a "... 58-week long-term safety and efficacy study initiated today" ("today" was September 29, 2010). It's not clear whether the enrollment period is part of the 58-week study, but I suspect it's not.
So, bottom line is 6-9 months plus 58 weeks = approx. 1-1/2 to 2 years AND, although the early studies look promising, there is no telling what the long term study results will be. Then they will have some kind of data to submit to the FDA, looking at another maybe 9 months for approval (if granted) of the possible new drug application.
Anyway you look at it, this is a long term investment. If you really want to play it short term, maybe put in a little coin now-ish on a bet and get out with a quickie profit if the results of the short term study are positive in the 4Q. Otherwise, the next little pops could occur if they report positive study results at various biotech conferences, so watch the conference schedule news on their web site. Any major pops are a long way off around FDA decision. ...all JMHO of course...
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