RiverBabe's Baby Biotechs

[riverbabe]

See I toll you I didn't know nothin. Thats the trouble when you dealin with farm boys.
One thing bothered me with the valuation though; They were using 4 times sales (the industry average) to get their price target. The guys that can afford to buy them all seem to have P/S ratios of less than 3. Go figure.

I'm always suspicious of a brokerage giving an estimate of future price, If they were at all confident of that price wouldn't they shut up and buy all they could at the lower price? Could it be thay have an inventory of stock they want to peddle to some unsuspecting farmer?

How long will you hold on if nothing happens? Got any kind of exit strategy besides being bought out?

Good points! 1) Only explanation I can think of for the 4X sales is that it's going to be a blockbuster drug (think Lipitor on steroids). 2) baby bios always seem to do a price stall when everybody has their fill. This stock has been stalled for ages. Very few more buyers here. So my worry is more along the lines of how successful the negotiations will be vis-a-vis price. 3) Re. Lovaza, the COO who launched it is now the CEO of AMRN. (I have to check if this is correct for sure.) 4) The company has said all along there are 3 choices: a buy-out, a partner, a self-launch, with preferences in that order. In the latest cc, they mentioned an exciting 60-90 days upcoming. So my time frame is give them till the middle of Oct. If they don't announce a buyer by then, I'm out, because the other 2 choices will kill the pps.

[Deaddog]

Here's a valuation analysis:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/8641...n?source=yahoo

See I toll you I didn't know nothin. Thats the trouble when you dealin with farm boys.
One thing bothered me with the valuation though; They were using 4 times sales (the industry average) to get their price target. The guys that can afford to buy them all seem to have P/S ratios of less than 3. Go figure.

I'm always suspicious of a brokerage giving an estimate of future price, If they were at all confident of that price wouldn't they shut up and buy all they could at the lower price? Could it be thay have an inventory of stock they want to peddle to some unsuspecting farmer?

How long will you hold on if nothing happens? Got any kind of exit strategy besides being bought out?

[riverbabe]

Wow Babe: Betting the farm? What a good idea! I’ve met quite a few farmers in my travels, and they all claim that you can’t make any money farming. How they afford the ½ million-dollar motor homes to winter in Arizona is still a mystery to me. Must be the Government subsidies.

You would think that if everyone knows there is going to be a buy out that the price would be higher. I know squat about biotecks (your area of experetise) but consider the following.

Possible sales of 500K if they get ½ of the market. That’s just over $3 per share in sales. The big boys have a price/sales ratio of less than 3 so that values the company at about 9 bucks.

Keep an eye on what the insiders are doing. They will have a better handle on what going on than anyone else. The info I get off yahoo show that they are selling more than buying. Go figure.

Anyhow good luck. Hope you get to keep your farm. Hate to think about the sayonara part.

Here's a valuation analysis:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/864191-amarin-is-still-a-buy-despite-nce-indecision?source=yahoo

[Deaddog]

Wow Babe: Betting the farm? What a good idea! I’ve met quite a few farmers in my travels, and they all claim that you can’t make any money farming. How they afford the ½ million-dollar motor homes to winter in Arizona is still a mystery to me. Must be the Government subsidies.

You would think that if everyone knows there is going to be a buy out that the price would be higher. I know squat about biotecks (your area of experetise) but consider the following.

Possible sales of 500K if they get ½ of the market. That’s just over $3 per share in sales. The big boys have a price/sales ratio of less than 3 so that values the company at about 9 bucks.

Keep an eye on what the insiders are doing. They will have a better handle on what going on than anyone else. The info I get off yahoo show that they are selling more than buying. Go figure.

Anyhow good luck. Hope you get to keep your farm. Hate to think about the sayonara part.

[riverbabe]

Amarin

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/09/20/could-amarin-be-an-acquisition-target.aspx

In @ 13.79, looking for 22-26+.

Waiting and waiting and waiting and waiting.... At this point there is a self-imposed news blackout at AMRN, cancelled latest presentation at biotech conference. Looks promising but who knows for sure? Betting the farm on this buyout. Otherwise sayonara. (Do as I say, not as I do...)

[riverbabe]

Dvax

I am in this one for a few $$ @ 4.23. VERY speculative. Looking for a run-up in pps going into FDA panel meeting Nov. 14-15. That's the only reason at this point. PDUFA in Feb. 2013, pretty far out for spec. on that. Not risking the farm here! Read all about it on Yahoo Finance. Both Mark Messier & Cramer like it, but remember they both work for thestreet.com. Another coin toss and extreme volatility. Will NOT be holding thru the panel meeting. Just hopefully taking a few $$ during the possible run-up ahead of it. No oinks. http://www.thestreet.com/story/11693...o&cm_ven=YAHOO

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000115978&__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7Cquote%7Cvideo%7C&par=yahoo

[billyjoe]

F:
Buy @ 9.30....order filled
Stop @ $8.80

hags

Hags, I don't see F going much lower. You'll probably get a nice profit in the long run.

-----------billy

[hags]

I was hoping to buy your shares of F....I'm asking $9.30....guess you sold to someone else....

hags

F:
Buy @ 9.30....order filled
Stop @ $8.80

hags

[hags]

River, I'm deep in biotech now. Sold F. Bought IBB and PCYC.


---------------billy

I was hoping to buy your shares of F....I'm asking $9.30....guess you sold to someone else....

hags

[billyjoe]

River, I'm deep in biotech now. Sold F. Bought IBB and PCYC.


---------------billy

[billyjoe]

River, I've also got to free some $$. Maybe get rid of F after all these years. I think I could do better with the $$ than F is doing. Not a cuss word in this instance.

-------------billy

[riverbabe]

River,
I can't find any comment of yours concerning PCYC. With a market cap of 4 billion it's not a Baby Biotech but Phoenix has got me very interested in it . Morpheus rates it at #2 in relative strength and the chart looks as if it's ready to bust out. Now a site called squeezetrigger.com says it's ripe for a 19% gain in the next 4 weeks. I value your opinion.

---------------billy

billy, as you know, this stock has been on a tear this year. The chart looks great for a possible breakout. I haven't been following it because my $$$ have been tied up in AMRN. Looks to have a deep pipeline. Low volume today. Search twitter.com and/or stocktwits.com using $PCYC. Earnings 9/12. What's not to like for short term? GLTY! Wish I could trade it too.

[billyjoe]

River,
I can't find any comment of yours concerning PCYC. With a market cap of 4 billion it's not a Baby Biotech but Phoenix has got me very interested in it . Morpheus rates it at #2 in relative strength and the chart looks as if it's ready to bust out. Now a site called squeezetrigger.com says it's ripe for a 19% gain in the next 4 weeks. I value your opinion.

---------------billy

[riverbabe]

7:36 AM today: Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) and AstraZeneca (AZN) win the battle for Amylin (AMLN), agreeing to buy the diabetes drug maker for $31/share (10% premium to Friday's close). The total size of the deal is $7B, and includes about $3.4B from AZN which will expand its diabetes collaboration with Bristol. (from Seeking Alpha).

I have a GTC bid in now for sell @ 30.99. We'll see how that goes... Billy, time to sell!

Sld AMLN 30.72, +14%.

[riverbabe]

Happy!

Happy Independence Day!!
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