RiverBabe's Baby Biotechs

[riverbabe]

Riverbabe -
I was wondering what your outlook is for NVS Novaritis AG. They have 12 new filings slated for the 2014 clinical pipeline where this year they only had 5.

I came across this article in some research that I found quite interesting as well.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/12/07/health/cohen-cancer-study/index.html?eref=rss_mostpopular&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_mostpopular+%28RSS%3A+Most+Popular%29

Curious on what your 6-18 month outllook would be on NVS.

Hello tall guy. Although I try to analyze only "baby biotechs," I can tell you that NVS is one of my favorite big pharmas and I have been in and out of it many times over the years. ( have also worked with them in the distant past on patent matters.) They are solid! And there have been a lot of reported success stories in the last few weeks+. The divi is now at 3.2%, not bad. IMHO they aren't going away and are a safe bet 6-18 months out.

Technically, on the weekly chart, looks like it has completed an Elliot wave 1/2/3/4/5 pattern and may be going into an a/b/c pullback. But it has steadily been climbing the upper Bollinger band. IMHO this is a company I would have no hesitation in buying on a pullback to the 20 dma, (or even the 50 dma except that in the current strong market it might not get there.) Good luck. (Disclaimer, I am not giving you advice as to what to do here. It's all just MHO.)

[sixfeetfour]

Riverbabe -
I was wondering what your outlook is for NVS Novaritis AG. They have 12 new filings slated for the 2014 clinical pipeline where this year they only had 5.

I came across this article in some research that I found quite interesting as well.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/12/07/health/cohen-cancer-study/index.html?eref=rss_mostpopular&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_mostpopular+%28RSS%3A+Most+Popular%29

Curious on what your 6-18 month outllook would be on NVS.

[riverbabe]

River, Sold my TRIB yesterday for a 5% gain. Revisions to future earnings aren't good. Put the $$ back into KKR, not a biotech, but looking real good and about the same price as TRIB so easy to convert. DHR's future is very bright. Did you know that the buyer of Beckmann Coulter started as a REIT?

------------------billy

Learn something new every day. Happy for your TRIB gain. Love the KKR divi. I'm in 4 REITs now. Keeping fingers crossed rising interest rates won't hurt them.

[billyjoe]

River, Sold my TRIB yesterday for a 5% gain. Revisions to future earnings aren't good. Put the $$ back into KKR, not a biotech, but looking real good and about the same price as TRIB so easy to convert. DHR's future is very bright. Did you know that the buyer of Beckmann Coulter started as a REIT?

------------------billy

[riverbabe]

RB,

A person asked me over Thanksgiving dinner to provide an opinion on ALNY. It does appear they have some potentially promising candidates early in the pipeline.

I would appreciate any analysis you might offer.

Alnylam (al-NIGH-lam) is an orphan-drug biopharmaceutical company with headquarters in the constellation ORION (see home page, LOL). Headquarters is visible from planet Earth as the center star of Orion's belt! A subsidiary on the planet Earth in the Milky Way galaxy is located in Cambridge, Mass. The company's pipeline drugs are based on a new technology using RNAi (RNA interference). For those of you all who do not have an advanced degree in biochem or other biotech sciences, don't throw in the towel just yet. What is important here is that they have a good pipeline of products with some success in Phase 2 studies. They are currently enrolling at least one Phase 3 study. http://www.alnylam.com/Programs-and-Pipeline/index.php They have been presenting at various conferences and the latest Press Release is here: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix....479&highlight=

They have lots and lots of issued patents and pending patents all over the world: http://www.alnylam.com/Intellectual-...view/index.php and http://www.alnylam.com/Intellectual-...tate/index.php They are also well represented by major pharma as research and development partners.

In short, as Lou said, they are a promising early development baby biotech. They sort of remind me of BMRN and AMRN early on. And we all know that BMRN is doing well and AMRN just crashed and burned. So ya pays yer money and takes yer chances. OR you can bet the short term pops whenever they schedule another conference to report more good results. OR you can wait a few years for terrific results from the Phase 3 study and then bet on a run up to an FDA PDUFA date or European approval. OR big excited takeover rumors and another short term pop.

I wish I were 25 again with a load of money and a lifetime to wait. Not to mention could take the risks involved in any baby biotech's evolution. Also wish I could have a clearer view of Orion's belt to see what's in the stars for ALNY.

[Louetta]

RB,

A person asked me over Thanksgiving dinner to provide an opinion on ALNY. It does appear they have some potentially promising candidates early in the pipeline.

I would appreciate any analysis you might offer.

[Duniyo]

Thanks for the detailed analysis. I don't like holding to any biotech after FDA approval, many of them fail. SOMX, XNPT, AMRN, DNDN, HGSi , etc.

[riverbabe]

Riverbabe, what you think of KERX? I mention few years back, it looks promising company.

Hi Duniyo. Been away a few days, sorry. I don't follow $KERX, but there is mild (not major) interest on twitter, mainly because the pps has fallen back from a rise when the results of the Phase 3 trial of Zerenex came out around Nov. 6th. Differences of opinion on going long or short at this point. Major upcoming catalyst is an FDA PDUFA date of June 7, 2014, so you may see a speculative run-up ahead of that. (I forbid you to hold through that decision! )

Adam Feuerstein's last article (thestreet.com) does NOT support KERX. He was right all along on AMRN and I really got stung on that one.

In response to a question "have you changed your mind about KERX now?", he wrote "No. I still believe investors are significantly under-estimating the risks involved with Keryx Pharmaceuticals (KERX_). I'm not surprised to see Keryx shares higher following the release of the Zerenex pre-dialysis kidney disease data this week. Keryx today is where Amarin (AMRN_) was 18 months ago before reality set in and the stock blew up. The two companies are very similar.

Keryx has weak intellectual property protection for Zerenex and isn't likely to receive the market exclusivity or patent term extensions it needs. These are important issues I wrote about last March and are still very much in play.

Keryx CEO Ron Bentsur has shifted his position and now insists he can market Zerenex on its own. What this tells me is partners are scared off by the patent and market exclusivity issues.

I told you, Keryx is Amarin redux.

Did you know Keryx isn't alone developing an iron-based phosphate binder?Vifor Pharma, a unit of Galenica Group, has already submitted its own iron-based phosphate binder PA21 for FDA approval. The expected approval decision date is Dec. 1.

PA21 was developed in partnership with Fresenius Medical Care, which controls about one-third of the kidney dialysis market. If PA21 is approved, Fresenius isn't likely to put its own iron-based phosphate binder on the shelf in favor of Zerenex. That leaves Keryx in the difficult position of negotiating with Davita (DVA_), the other large dialysis service provider without much leverage.

Another interesting wrinkle: PA21 was designed specifically so the iron is not absorbed by the body, which means there is no effect on iron stores, hemoglobin or anemia. This is not a bug, but a feature of PA21.

Keryx will have you believe dialysis providers are clamoring for Zerenex because its iron is absorbed by the body and therefore has positive effects on hemoglobin and anemia and reduces utilization of IV irons.

Yet Fresenius chose PA21, even though Zerenex has been around forever.

Lastly, there's this week's study results in which Keryx re-packages Zerenex for kidney disease patients not yet on dialysis. [A much larger commercial market than kidney dialysis.] Now, Zerenex is no longer a phosphate binder, it's an alternative iron therapy! Why? Because FDA won't approve phosphate binders in non-dialysis kidney disease patients without positive outcomes data. Genzyme went down this route with its phosphate binder Renagel but failed. I see no reason to expect a better ending for Keryx and Zerenex."

Adam is not often wrong. Also see someone's trading plan (below).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Arsk0X_FNcSRdDgydVVUeDNXM0V0MUw0YUhvMDNLbXc&usp=drive_web#gid=116

[Duniyo]

Riverbabe, what you think of KERX? I mention few years back, it looks promising company.

[Louetta]

Wow. I don't see it either, Lou, in anything I have just read. It sounds very high risk. Could the financiers just be pumping it after the IPO? In that case there might be a short term pop. But, it's years from iffy FDA approval(?) and burning cash on what might be a pipe dream after 5 years of trying and even Pfizer backed away. If it were me, I'd wait for some kind of real scientific catalyst to push it higher. Keep an eye on it for "upcoming" announcements of potentially "good" trial results and sell on run up before actual results reported. But don't hold your breath.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1522512-esperion-therapeutics-another-ipo-after-pfizer-abandons-the-only-drug-in-its-pipeline?source=kizur

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1507...c?source=yahoo

Thank you. CADX is another I got from Longitude. Stock's been doing OK lately and tho they are still losing money they are doing better.

[riverbabe]

Wow. I don't see it either, Lou, in anything I have just read. It sounds very high risk. Could the financiers just be pumping it after the IPO? In that case there might be a short term pop. But, it's years from iffy FDA approval(?) and burning cash on what might be a pipe dream after 5 years of trying and even Pfizer backed away. If it were me, I'd wait for some kind of real scientific catalyst to push it higher. Keep an eye on it for "upcoming" announcements of potentially "good" trial results and sell on run up before actual results reported. But don't hold your breath.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1522512-esperion-therapeutics-another-ipo-after-pfizer-abandons-the-only-drug-in-its-pipeline?source=kizur

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1507212-ipo-review-esperion-therapeutics-inc?source=yahoo

[billyjoe]

Louetta, http://beta.fool.com/maholder/2013/0...gyholnk0000001

Maybe they're counting on an aging population with LDL cholesterol problems. Mrs. billy says LDL is the big thing doctors seem to be focusing on in heart health these days.

-------------------------billy

[Louetta]

R.B.: For many moons I have followed the picks of Longitude Capital (family connection). Got a few good picks (e.g. AMRN and JAZZ). Now I see they have a 13% stake in ESPR. I can't see it. Would be interested in any thoughts you may have on ESPR.

[riverbabe]

30% more drug approvals

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-food-drug-administration-approved-132000409.html

[riverbabe]

River, Amgen bought deCode. A friend of mine is a pilot out of Dallas. He married an Icelandic girl. Must have been quite a weather shock. She told me an Icelander is not allowed to take any possessions out of the country. This was 30 years ago. Also the Icelandic language is one of the most difficult to learn. Saw a story about a savant that learned the language in a week or less. Experts said it was impossible.

----------------billy

Another piece of trivia -- Iceland is a whole island of hot springs, geysirs, steamy landscape, perfect for the lichens that almost completely cover the volcanic rock. Iceland is actually GREEN. Greenland, on the other hand, is (was) completely covered with ice & snow year round. Who messed up the names of these countries? More trivia -- the best way to travel around there is by local bus. Being German, I could pass for a native Icelander. So, waiting at the bus stop, people would come up to me and ask me questions in Icelandic! I would stammer out "I'm sorry..." and they would profusely apologize in Icelandic. Unintelligible!