RiverBabe's Baby Biotechs

[riverbabe]

Hi River
Any thoughts on the recent move here? Thanks for what you bring here!

Hi Toxo,

I don't see any news-driven trading here, with the possible exceptions of the July 12,2010 announcement of the next (huge market potential) active product candidate Staccato Nicotine http://nocache-phx.corporate-ir.net/...ews&id=1446346 and the July 6 SEC filing re. the amended manufacturing agreement with Autoliv. http://biz.yahoo.com/e/100706/alxa8-k.html
The latter agreement suggests that when and if they get FDA approval on or before October 11, 2010 they will be ready to go to market immediately. That's a good sign.

The uptrending channel shown on the weekly below makes me think buyers are getting into position to cash in on potential approval in Oct. and/or in anticipation of earnings report 8/5/2010. I don't see any other reasons except the above. BTW, thanks for asking! It forces me do my homework!

http://img85.imageshack.us/img85/8148/alxaweeklyannotated.png

[dmk112]

ARNA looks interesting, VVUS got dumped today. Trade any of those River?

[Peter Hansen]

Bvf

River check out BVF ......Vector Vest says it is UNDERVALUED and should be worth about 24 bucks. BVF also pays an annual dividend of $1.40 Per share ......and the chart is popping!

[riverbabe]

dmk ARNA + VVUS

ARNA looks interesting, VVUS got dumped today. Trade any of those River?

Haven't traded these, but followed the news yesterday that Vivus' obesity drug was denied approval for sale by FDA committee. http://www.xconomy.com/san-francisco...in-close-vote/

Just goes to show 'ya, good data doesn't necessarily mean approval. They were denied because of side effects and long term safety data. (Disclosure: one of the ingredients is topiramate, which I am extremely allergic to. Yuk) But is this an excuse because of FDA "bias?" (see below).

For further amusement, check this out: http://www.thestreet.com/story/10806...ory-panel.html

Vivus doesn't have much of anything else in the pipeline except a phase 3 clinical trial of an oral ED drug, with results expected in late 2010. I don't put too much faith in a competitor for the little blue pill and the other one either. Stockcharts shows how much Vivus dropped after the announcement. Ouch. I wouldn't touch it here.

The announcement obviously has an effect on Arena Pharm also, since they have submitted their obesity drug lorcaserin phase 3 clinical data for approval, on or before October 22, 2010. It doesn't look good for this one either unless the FDA changes their bias for exercise instead of drugs. http://blogs.wsj.com/health/2010/07/.../?mod=yahoo_hs

But, Arena's works as a serotonin inhibitor, like many other drugs. Maybe there won't be a problem.

A little too much risk for my tolerance, altho buying it if it pulls back Mon+ on the news, and selling on a run up before the Oct. announcement would be a possibility. A really low-ball bid I think, around $3-3.50, or raise it slightly if it starts to look better on volume. I wouldn't bet the farm. Good luck dmk. And thanks for bringing these here.

[riverbabe]

Pete - BVF

River check out BVF ......Vector Vest says it is UNDERVALUED and should be worth about 24 bucks. BVF also pays an annual dividend of $1.40 Per share ......and the chart is popping!

Funny you should ask. Biovail is a partner of ALXA (I have a stake in ALXA). I don't know whether to laugh or cry about this company. I have a long memory. The stock is on a tear after its (many) Valeant merger announcement(s). http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/22/business/22drug.html
But-----

http://www.prlog.org/10764365-valeant-pharmaceuticals-international-investors-file-lawsuit-against-biovail-takeover.html

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/08/24/biovails-short-selling-lawsuit-dismissed/

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/05/20/biovail-another-naked-short-selling-poster-child-exposed-as-an/

http://www.news-medical.net/news/20090824/Biovails-patent-infringement-lawsuit-against-Cary-Pharma-may-affect-IntelGenx-revenues.aspx

As a matter of principle, I dislike companies that keep suing other companies or keep getting sued. My eye is jaundiced, sorry. I won't be investing in it. And I won't be reviewing it further. It might be okay now. But take it with a grain of salt.

[Peter Hansen]

Cypb

River CYPB is running nice ....check it out!

[TheRelapse]

Whats your thoughts on pbth now. I bought it at 6.30, sold at 8.30, then i bought again at 6.65 and it ran up to about 7.35 and now its back at 6.70. Not sure what to do here, i think the company has good long term potential though and i would like to stay with it.

[riverbabe]

Pbth

Whats your thoughts on pbth now. I bought it at 6.30, sold at 8.30, then i bought again at 6.65 and it ran up to about 7.35 and now its back at 6.70. Not sure what to do here, i think the company has good long term potential though and i would like to stay with it.

I think you should stay with it. It is consolidating after the recent run-up, similar to what it did before (circles). Also it has support at 6.50-ish (pardon my not-so-straight support line). If the market keeps going up, it should move with it.



Watch the narrowing Bollinger Bands on the daily, indicating low volatility. It will move one way or the other dramatically very soon (walk down the lower, or walk up the upper). All the other indicators are moving sideways on low volume, indicating consolidation. Stoch beginning upturn from oversold.



News on re. new Phase II clinical trial with Human Growth Hormone, July 21st.http://www.prolor-biotech.com/_Uploa...lOfhGH-CTP.pdf

[riverbabe]

Dndn

Back in Dendreon. Blow-out sales of Provenge. Av. 36.93. Wow.

http://investor.dendreon.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=120739&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1455982&highlight=

[billyjoe]

River,
How about ENDP? Just signed an agreement to buy out PPCO at $5/share and it looks good to me.

------------billy

[riverbabe]

River,
How about ENDP? Just signed an agreement to buy out PPCO at $5/share and it looks good to me.

------------billy

Endo Pharmaceuticals is a great established pharma. Their move on Monday to buy out Penwest to reduce their royaltay payments and add to their pipeline is a smart move IMHO. So, the question becomes, when is the best time to buy?

The price got a nice boost on the news Monday and hit its 52-week high (26.05) from Dec. 2009 on Tues. But it couldn't hold it because of market conditions yesterday. It pulled back to another resistance point that should act as support now (around 24.96-25.00). (stockcharts is acting squirrely this morning, so I'll try to post an annotated chart. But if I can't, look at the weekly in particular.)

I think the news is priced in now, and from here it will move with the d$%@ market. Keep an eye on the 200. If it breaks it, it should fall dramatically. I'd try for a low-ball bid here. JMHO.

[billyjoe]

Soon, but not yet, the winter chill will be upon us and we'll gather around the wood burner to warm our hands and talk about upcoming biotechs. Louey Navallier sent me a list of biotechs to buy. I didn't ask for the list so it must be free for me to talk about. These biotechs are mostly in the $1.50-$2.50 range. Here they are with recommendations from another source that will not be named.

ATHX-hold, CPRX-hold, CYCC-hold, AVII-hold, DUSA-hold

RNN-sell, INHX-sell, LUNA-sell, CUR-sell

They can't all be stinkers. What do Mr.Market members think?

------------billy

[billyjoe]

River,
Do you see ALXA and MNKD being in the same boat as far as FDA approval/disapproval on the horizon? Mr.Mann has put over 1 billion of his own fortune on the line. Quite a show of confidence in the inhalable insulin product.


---------------billy

[riverbabe]

River,
Do you see ALXA and MNKD being in the same boat as far as FDA approval/disapproval on the horizon? Mr.Mann has put over 1 billion of his own fortune on the line. Quite a show of confidence in the inhalable insulin product.
---------------billy

billy, Mannkind got a shock when Afreeza was not approved by the FDA in March 2010. They are now doing another Phase 3 clinical study:

"Evaluate Safety of T/I on Diabetic Subjects With Mild Obstructive Pulmonary Disease
This study is currently recruiting participants.
Verified by Mannkind Corporation, August 2010
First Received: March 21, 2008 Last Updated: August 3, 2010" www.clinicaltrials.gov

But this article talks about another opportunity for FDA approval on or about December 29, 2010. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Good-N....html?x=0&.v=1

"MannKind Corporation (NasdaqGM: MNKD - News) received a boost when the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) accepted MannKind’s response to the complete response letter (CRL) issued by the agency on its inhaled insulin candidate, Afrezza. The candidate is being developed for treating type I and type II diabetes.
The agency informed the company that the resubmission will be treated as a class II review. Consequently, a decision from the FDA should be out within 6 months (target date: December 29, 2010). The resubmission included safety and efficacy data from recently completed studies on the candidate..."

This an interesting article about new financing obtained by Mannkind on Aug. 19th. http://www.fool.com/investing/value/...e-10-nice.aspx Hmm...

Mannkind does not have any partners in Afrezza development.

FDA approval for this type of deep lung inhalor will not be easy for MNKD. The company is hanging its hat on approval or it could possibly go bust, Mr. Mann's billions or not. IMHO it's still a crap shoot at this point.

ALXA also is seeking FDA approval for their first product delivered by a deep lung inhalor (on or about October 11, 2010). They have also recently acquired a partner (Cypress Bioscience) to do the R&D for their nicotine inhalor using the same technology.

Frankly, since there is a parallel technology to MNKD's, Alexza may also have trouble getting a yes from the FDA on the first try. At this point, I'm leaning toward selling on a run up prior to the FDA decision.

[riverbabe]

Soon, but not yet, the winter chill will be upon us and we'll gather around the wood burner to warm our hands and talk about upcoming biotechs. Louey Navallier sent me a list of biotechs to buy. I didn't ask for the list so it must be free for me to talk about. These biotechs are mostly in the $1.50-$2.50 range. Here they are with recommendations from another source that will not be named.

ATHX-hold, CPRX-hold, CYCC-hold, AVII-hold, DUSA-hold

RNN-sell, INHX-sell, LUNA-sell, CUR-sell

They can't all be stinkers. What do Mr.Market members think?

------------billy

Hope to get time to look at some of these today or tomorrow.