RiverBabe's Baby Biotechs

[skiracer]

Thanks a lot for the recommendation of PBTH, I bought yesterday near the low, after it broke through the ~$6.30 resistance level, and it's up a nice 20% or so already.

I'm interested in what you guys think is a good target price. I'm thinking somewhere around $9 for the short term, is that too optimistic? I'm basing this on the huge momentum and the steadily increase in volume. Longterm, the fact that TEVA paid $400 million for a technology that is very similar to what Prolor is developing makes me think this company could reach a 1 billion market cap early into next year.

I am really clueless when it comes to biotech, but Riverbabe said the technology was solid and I know all the technicals are pointing up. Riverbabe since you really seem to understand all this medical stuff, how similar are the HGH trials that Cogenesys(the company teva bought) was performing to the ones being run by PBTH. Also, how much of Cogenyses' value was viewed as being in those trials? I feel this is a big key in evaluating PBTH. 1 last question, since this company seems to be in development stages of a bunch of drugs and treatments, how high risk is this company and is it a good takeover candidate?

Summary: I bought PBTH knowing it would be great short-term and am now thinking it may be really good long term.

I decided to start posting instead of just reading because I read some complaints of the low number of posts lately on the forum by some of the regulars. I'm 21 years old and have been investing for 5 years. I have a lot to learn but I hope I can bring something to the table.

I know I type too much.

I couldn't get my avatar to work either.

it's always better to get your thoughts out there in the open. the interaction will also make you better at this in the long run. another thought is that you reap what you sow. if you have friends that are lurking tell them to post their thoughts or questions. the more the better will end up growing and producing a much better forum. thanks for taking the leap.

[riverbabe]

Hello TheRelapse!

Welcome to the forum! Sorry it took me so long to get back to you. I composed a neat message to you with charts and all, then promptly lost it while searching PBTH. Anyway, your first post was a good one. Looks like you know a lot about what you are doing! Look up "JohnHenry" in the Community. He is also young and good! To upload your avatar, go to User CP, avatar, click Custom and upload one of two ways. Also can do a Profile Picture by clicking on left menu appropriately. If you need help uploading charts to this forum, just ask us.

PBTH has broken out! Fantastic volume for last few days, and very bullish long-tailed hammer on the close. This is the daily, for anyone interested. They got a tremendous boost, probably due to a favorable report at the Jeffries Conference. I couldn't find it, but somebody knows something.


I was checking out the TEVA acquisition of Cogenesys from HGS when I lost this. Looks like the major technology is similar to Prolor's, adding a protein (albumin, a really HUGE protein compared to CTP, and potential immune response, BAD, if it's not human albumin) to the end of a drug to increase half-life in the body (i.e., a once-a-week dose instead of once-a-day, etc. http://blogs.wsj.com/health/2008/01/...bumin-rolling/ This link says this technology has changed hands (HGS to Novartis to Teva) a few times. Don't know much about it, but it appears TEVA wants to go generic with it eventually, so they are a PBTH competitor.

Honestly, I am not a fundamental analysis person. My eyes glaze over. So, I really can't answer the question about how this affects Teva's bottom line. Or Prolor's. I can say that if Prolor finds another partner like Merck, their pipeline will be well funded for adding their CTP to other drugs, and the list of possibilities is extensive. For now, it is still "development stage." Long term all of these stocks are high risk, but approval for sale product in Europe means the US probably won't be far behind. And, any partnership announcement will give another short term boost. 9? Can't say, but what the heck. Play a few sheckels and take your chances! Only IMHO of course. But this boost might only because of the Jeffries report. Don't let your short term profits now get away from you. This market is way too unpredictable. Take it, run, get back in on a pull back. I have seen too many of my profits dissolve in this market.

Takeover candidate? Maybe. A long wait? Possibly. Worth holding long for that purpose if you have those sheckels to spare for long term. You might be handsomely rewarded. (geez, I'm no help at all today.) River

[TheRelapse]

Thanks a lot for the well researched reply.

I read that the teva acquisition of cogenyses would supplement teva's pipeline with some perscription drugs and not continue to limit them to generics. I don't think the fact that teva acquired the HGH from cogenyses necessarily means they will make it a generic.

I'm holding pbth into the open tomorrow and will make a decision to hold or sell when I see the trend at the open. This seems to be a good company and I will definitely be trying to buy again on a dip.

[riverbabe]

Relapse - PBTH

Relapse, looks like PBTH hit a triple top @ 8.34 in last two days. More resistance here. If it breaks it later, go for the ride. We're supposed to get a short term (be nimble) boost in the next few days, according to my favorite guru. But IMHO, I would take your short term gains now and buy again on the inevitable pull-back. This could be just the "Jeffries" blip.

[TheRelapse]

PBTH just went positive for the day and broke through the $8.34 resistance. Are you viewing this as a very positive sign heading into next week or do you still think a pullback is in order. I'm sure there will be a pullback, but after todays action I think it will be a bit higher. I may take profits at the close, not sure yet, still trying to analyze what today meant for this stock.

[TheRelapse]

I sold at $8.32 on monday, since then its down around 10%, I'm looking to get back in this stock longterm if it drops under $7 again. It's currently at $7.62.

[peanuts]

I'm really enjoying this thread, River. Technically, DNDN looks good right here at $40.59... I'd like to see it keep its head above the $40 marker

[riverbabe]

I'm really enjoying this thread, River. Technically, DNDN looks good right here at $40.59... I'd like to see it keep its head above the $40 marker

I'm watching this one like a hawk. I like less than 39, which is where I first had it and sold at about 52. I held off when it was there last week because am thinking the market is still going down and it will go with the flow.

They keep filing SEC form 4s, I think the options holders among the insiders are cashing in. This keeps supply up and pps down. They have filed about 30 of these or more since the good news. (I get email notification). I'm waiting for that supply to slow down before the price heads higher.

http://investor.dendreon.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=120739&p=irol-sec

[billyjoe]

River,
Have I got a stock for you! Not a biotech but just as good, deals in patents. This one has been popping up on my radar for months and I may have to buy it now. It is..............you ready? Uptrender ACTG. You'll like what you see with this one.

------------billy

[riverbabe]

River,
Have I got a stock for you! Not a biotech but just as good, deals in patents. This one has been popping up on my radar for months and I may have to buy it now. It is..............you ready? Uptrender ACTG. You'll like what you see with this one.

------------billy

billy, just want you to know, I'm not ignoring you. Spent all day yesterday driving, today at a funeral, tomorrow driving again. Have a good idea what this company does. Will respond ASAP. River

[billyjoe]

River,
Call me crazy but I just bought 500 ACTG @14.73. The optimist in me will do me in yet.

-----------billy

[riverbabe]

River,
Call me crazy but I just bought 500 ACTG @14.73. The optimist in me will do me in yet.

-----------billy

The chart is really interesting. Looks like you got in on an upswing. Great. Just for fun checked it with Pete's "Fox" analysis -- has a 60% up chance. (Am looking at the co. etc. now so will get back to you today.)

[riverbabe]

Actg

Acacia Research Corporation (ACTG): Billy, looks like you have found a potential big winner here (but see BUT below). It is one cash cow company. Their officers make $324K-$474K per year plus stock options and bonuses, although that might only just cover what it costs to live in Newport Beach, CA.

These are their rather formidable profiles: http://people.forbes.com/profile/paul-r-ryan/641; http://people.forbes.com/profile/robert-l-harris/642; http://people.forbes.com/profile/clayton-j-haynes/634;
(This is the head patent guy, Dooyong Lee)http://www.law.northwestern.edu/news...m?eventid=1693
(This is the other patent guy, Edward J. Treska

http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/people/person.asp?personId=33455570&ticker=ACTG:US

BUT
Now, here is the bad part: They apparently have a subsidiary called "Global Patent Holdings" that is not-affectionately called a "patent troll". http://ipbiz.blogspot.com/2004/12/ac...of-global.html To tell more of their story, this link is to an exemplary experience with a particular patent (you have to scroll all the way down to the comments, and the last comment says it's "dead" -- finally). http://patentfizz.com/fizzdisplay.php?patno=5253341.

For a shorter version of this same story, see http://www.techdirt.com/blog.php?com...atent+holdings. (Disclosure: I know Greg Aharonian. He's the good guy who got sued for speaking his mind.)

Is this a good investment? Like I said, it is a cash cow and it takes risks post-patent that the inventors wouldn't be able to afford. When they win, they win big. When they lose, that's show-biz folks. See any and all the recent headlines at yahoo finance: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=ACTG+Headlines

Swallow hard, close at least one eye, and go for it billy!

[billyjoe]

River,
Now you've got me scared. Maybe I'll take a .25 gain and bail...................just kidding.

---------billy

[toxo]

alxa

Hi River
Any thoughts on the recent move here? Thanks for what you bring here!