RiverBabe's Baby Biotechs

[steelman]

lol, oh, good point. Well, in that case $5 December calls look pretty good for ALXA. Why not pick some up, at .43 they seem like a bargain.

[riverbabe]

In your opinion, do you think RNN is worth holding long term at this price level?

Depends on how long you're willing to wait, Wooish. It will be years before they finally get to Phase III clinical study results for submission of a NDA to the FDA. I never do it. It's dead money for much much too long for me.

Their pipeline does not show anything further along than the iffy Phase IIa completed clinical trial http://www.rexahn.com/cms/index.php/portfolio/, and a couple submitted to the FDA for approval of Phase IIb studies. http://www.rexahn.com/cms/index.php/...otocol-to-fda/ Potential results are all a toss-up right now. (read big RISK).

But, as I mentioned last week about DNDN, there were some investors on the zoo board that claimed to have been in for several years when it was a 2-4 dollar stock. They are reaping returns big time. (See the through-the-wringer weekly chart of DNDN I mentioned last week). Depends how much spare change you're willing to risk for a really really long haul.

[riverbabe]

lol, oh, good point. Well, in that case $5 December calls look pretty good for ALXA. Why not pick some up, at .43 they seem like a bargain.

If the FDA approves the NDA on or before Oct. 11th, the Dec. calls could be a bonanza! But, keep in mind, it's all a big gamble on a coin toss which could go either way. At least with calls, you're not risking as much!

(I have a hole in my brain when it comes to options, regardless of all those seminars and courses, as I found out the hard way. I have the utmost respect for you and Ski and others on this Forum who have the know-how to do it right.)

[riverbabe]

What Phase X Studies?

These are a couple of links to what is meant by the Phase I, IIa, IIb, III, IV clinical studies I am talking about, to help clarify:

http://www.cancer.gov/clinicaltrials/learning/what-is-a-clinical-trial

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clinical_trial (click on each of the "Phase" links for good info.)

River

[dredre609]

What do you think about VITA?

[steelman]

If the FDA approves the NDA on or before Oct. 11th, the Dec. calls could be a bonanza! But, keep in mind, it's all a big gamble on a coin toss which could go either way. At least with calls, you're not risking as much!

(I have a hole in my brain when it comes to options, regardless of all those seminars and courses, as I found out the hard way. I have the utmost respect for you and Ski and others on this Forum who have the know-how to do it right.)

River,
I am still learning but I did pay a decent amount of money for a year long online class for beginning options. I am 3 months into it. Only have been buying calls and puts so far. In a few months I will be learning the spreads, straddles, verticals, condors, etc. Well, so far so good. I really like options but the key is to find great companies/stocks because the option is only as good as the underlying stock.

[riverbabe]

What do you think about VITA?

I see they are releasing earnings today. It's already almost 3 PM EDT. I see there is now a large share buy going on. Maybe somebody knows something... I really hate to advise this close to earnings. I'll be happy to analyze the CC afterward if you wish.

What gives me pause, initially, are statements like these from their web site on April 22nd that are bound to show up in the CC for better or worse depending on whether they are already priced in:

"...product sales for the first quarter of 2010 were $24.1 million, an 11% increase over product sales of $21.7 million in the first quarter of 2009. Product sales for the quarter ended March 31, 2010 included $1.1 million from the sale of Vitomatrix™, a bone graft material used in dental products, and $900,000 from U.S. sales of Cortoss™, the Company’s novel synthetic biomaterial that was cleared by the FDA in June 2009 for the treatment of vertebral compression fractures, and Aliquot™, the Company’s Cortoss delivery device. There were no Vitomatrix or U.S. Cortoss sales in the first quarter of 2009. The $1.1 million in Vitomatrix sales occurred in March 2010 as part of an agreement to terminate our supply agreement for this product. "

"...While we are gratified that the realignment of our Cortoss marketing strategy was successful in generating higher Cortoss growth at the end of the quarter, implementing this strategy reduced the amount of time our sales representatives could spend in the operating room on bone graft cases. As a result, our Vitoss™ sales, excluding the Vitomatrix sale, declined slightly in the first quarter of 2010 compared to the first quarter of 2009. However, we anticipate that the realignment of our Cortoss pricing strategy will reduce the time needed to obtain hospital approvals for Cortoss, freeing up our sales representatives’ time to refocus their efforts on our Vitoss products, and we expect that sales of our Vitoss products will increase in the coming quarters.”

Okay, these are some strange backward and forward-looking statements that I would be very wary of, unless I could be assured that they were priced in. Maybe there has been a leak to cause the big buy going on. Can't advise you at this point. Really too close to earnings release.

[riverbabe]

River,
I am still learning but I did pay a decent amount of money for a year long online class for beginning options. I am 3 months into it. Only have been buying calls and puts so far. In a few months I will be learning the spreads, straddles, verticals, condors, etc. Well, so far so good. I really like options but the key is to find great companies/stocks because the option is only as good as the underlying stock.

Been there, done that. When they got into the Iron Condors, my eyes glazed over and visions of the roulette table came into focus. Seriously, when it comes to physics things like optics and electrical, I have the same hole in my brain, so I know when to quit while I'm ahead. heh

[Peter Hansen]

River

River have ya ever been to a job interview like this LOL!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HTG3B8jf5w

[riverbabe]

River have ya ever been to a job interview like this LOL!http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HTG3B8jf5w

Dream on, Pete! Stereotypic "women as sex objects." Ain't me, sorry. And I didn't rise to the top by using sex. Didn't need to. They fell at my feet in awe anyway! hee

But have to admit Benny Hill is absolutely one of my favorites of all time, regardless. (Although if you ever suggest anything of this kind to me again, I may have to kill you. He%%, I WILL KILL YOU!)

[Peter Hansen]

River

Dream on, Pete! Stereotypic "women as sex objects." Ain't me, sorry. And I didn't rise to the top by using sex. Didn't need to. They fell at my feet in awe anyway! hee

But have to admit Benny Hill is absolutely one of my favorites of all time, regardless. (Although if you ever suggest anything of this kind to me again, I may have to kill you. He%%, I WILL KILL YOU!)

River yes you are a brilliant woman ......but that Benny Hill sure does have a different spin on things LOL

[mrmarket]

I am afraid of biotechs because once the drugs get approved, you are late to the party. As a result, it seems like the only people who can make big money on these companies are the insiders.

[riverbabe]

I am afraid of biotechs because once the drugs get approved, you are late to the party. As a result, it seems like the only people who can make big money on these companies are the insiders.

Ernie, it seems that way. But one trick is, ahead of time and with a big salt shaker, to interpret the results of the Phase III clinical studies (as publicized by the company) that they are submitting for new drug approval. In some cases these are pretty detailed. But ya gotta know what you are looking for.

But it's still a crap shoot any way you look at it. That's why I don't usually invest in biotechs either. It's either a bonanza or a huge hit to the pocket book on the day of reckoning. There's no middle ground. I hate being in that situation.

In the case of DNDN, it was their second time at bat. They had fixed the problems the FDA had targeted at their first denial. The data really looked good now. That's why I took the chance.

All I'm trying to do with this thread is to enlighten the uninitiated a little about the true nature of these babies, where they actually stand in the approval timetable, what they are actually trying to develop, what to expect (if anything) and when possibly to expect it, do they have big pockets supporting them(?) (i.e.,showing some kind of faith in them). Often as not, the partners drop out if the company isn't performing well. Are they possibly takeover candidates? (not usually, unless they have a huge approved product and a solid pipeline.)

If I can use my background and knowledge to help save people a lot of money and grief when they are willing to bet on the absolutely wrong stock because they really don't understand the entire picture, that's what I am trying to do. Just some education from someone who's been there, done that, won some (luckily), lost some, learned from the experiences.

[billyjoe]

River,
I'm still watching MNKD although the govt. delayed approval of afrezza, inhalable insulin. The wife says it's a bust regardless. The big pharmas tried and failed but I'm not so sure it won't be a big deal. The owner Al Mann has put his reputation and 100's of millions of his money behind the product.

-------------billy

[riverbabe]

River,
I'm still watching MNKD although the govt. delayed approval of afrezza, inhalable insulin. The wife says it's a bust regardless. The big pharmas tried and failed but I'm not so sure it won't be a big deal. The owner Al Mann has put his reputation and 100's of millions of his money behind the product.

-------------billy

billy, I'm still watching MNKD too. Nothing in it yet but watching.

http://www.fiercebiotech.com/story/mannkinds-inhaled-insulin-drug-afrezza-delayed/2010-03-15

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/MannKi....html?x=0&.v=1 Says more talks with FDA soon. But they pared their losses by cutting research expense. Hmm...

I kind of hope for Al Mann's dreams to finally come true too. But hope isn't enough to justify my investment right now. Watch and wait...I think.