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noshady you be so nice! Backatcha.Just took my 18% profit from ELN and will look for the 'c' completion entry...it doesn't look like it's near done yet.
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I see today's action of ELN shows another -4% from my exit....And I've just done the weekly chart and it whispers a 'c' drop to 12.90ish, perhaps a fresh weekly channel.....who knows, maybe 'a' will hold.... but I doubt it since the SHS target is under price support (that 1st chart is a 15 day 90min).
I'm looking for a further 11% drop from current levels, which will be a very attractive support area.
This move now is corrective, and wisdom says stand aside and stalk another entry. Mildred ain't happy, but at least that 18% will buy her some new shoes
hehe
15-day 90 min chart
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I sold the position off yesterday at $14.52. I had it at $15.95 and must be a chumperino to let it go that far without bailing. Just gave back nearly $3000. That's more than I made on the trade. The same old hope in one hand and shit in the other. See which one fills up first. I can't believe that I let 1.43 points get away from me at this stage in my developement. Spike an uppercut please. No make that a double with a goji backup. If it goes below $14 and farther it will make for another beautiful entry. My actions on this trade are a prime example of what not to do when you have the gains in your hand. I've been the biggest advocate of taking them off the table when you have them and then I go and do this. An I have no justification for staying in the trade to this point other than thinking that it was going to turn. Webs and Lye I called you guys on this before so please give me your best uppercut.THE SKIRACER'S EDGE: MAKE THE EDGE IN YOUR FAVOR
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Ski, do you not have faith for March 7th? I am in at 10.90 and really want to hold till the MS drug is on the market. I saw my Doc yesterday and he let me know that when its back on the market he wants me on it. I will have MRI's done today for another Base line. My Doc is over the MS clinic at John Hopkins. He has much faith in the drug for those who can not take Avonex. I bet there are at least 5 to 5 thousand of us who go to his clinic. '
Oh, I forgot your a pure chartist, right?Comment
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5 to 6 thousand, I meanComment
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Dena,Originally posted by sisterwin2
I basically trade on the technical side using charts as my primary tool. I try to hit the peaks and valleys when the chart indicates it. Sometimes I outsmart myself and sometimes I'm downright stupid as with this last position in ELN. I give advice and then don't practice what I preach sometimes. I really do hope that the drug makes it back on to the market for people like yourself. Other than that I'm could care less about the stock or the company. It's just another trade. In this last case I let it get away from me which was pure unadulterated stupidity on my part. Instead of taking advantage of an opportunity to take $4000 off the table I end up with $1340.00. I sincerely hope that the drug gets the required approvals for your sake. I'll be watching it closely for another entry opportunity.THE SKIRACER'S EDGE: MAKE THE EDGE IN YOUR FAVOR
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Elan (Buy, Closing Price $14.40)
European rights to Prialt sold for a good price.
Analyst: Ian Hunter
Elan this morning announced that it has sold its rights to Prialt in Europe to the Japanese pharmaceutical company Eisai. The drug, which was launched in the US market in early 2006, is used for the treatment of severe, chronic pain and is administered by intrathecal pump. Elan is retaining the product rights in the US. Under the terms of the deal, Elan will receive $50m in cash on the closing of the deal and a further $10m in two years time or earlier if Prialt is launched in key European markets prior to early 2008. The deal also included a further $40m payable to Elan, contingent on Prialt achieving revenue related milestones in Europe. We see this as very good deal for Elan, given that it is receiving $50m up front for a product that only sold $6.3m in its initial year in the US market and for which we were forecasting sales of $7.2m in FY06. Our current value for the drug on a DCF basis is in the $25.5m to $31.3m range and with the US rights retained, more than half of this value remains with Elan.Comment
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This statment is enough to make me stay in...Originally posted by skiracer
Any hey, when I clear 1000$ best believe you will read it hereComment
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I will be selling either on March 7th or the week before, depending on the share price.
You can pretty much figure that Tysabri IS coming back ,which in my Vulcan opinion, means that the share will already have Tysabri's return priced in. After I sell, I will watch the share price for a while for an entry at a lower price.
If the Alzheimers thing works out ELN will be very huge, but that should take a bit longer.
These all all just a Vulcan opinion though...Comment
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UPDATE 2-US FDA allows limited Tysabri study use
Wed Feb 15, 2006 3:46 PM ET
(Recasts; adds additional FDA comments, analyst quotes)
By Lisa Richwine
WASHINGTON, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Biogen Idec <BIIB.O> and Elan Corp. <ELN.I> <ELN.N> can resume use of their multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri in patients who had been taking it as part of a study, U.S. regulators said on Wednesday.
The Food and Drug Administration said it "remains very concerned" that patients who take Tysabri may develop a rare, potentially fatal brain infection. Officials will decide in late March if widespread sales may begin again.
The companies voluntarily pulled Tysabri from the market in February 2005 after a small number of patients developed a brain and spinal cord infection known as progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, or PML. Two patients with PML died.
"The currently available information (is) not adequate to clearly define the level of risk or the exact circumstances when this risk occurs," the FDA said on its Web site.
The agency noted that the injectable drug "is a very effective product" for MS, a progressive autoimmune disorder that can cause blurred vision, weakness, poor muscle coordination, and loss of memory and mental function.
The FDA said it was reasonable to resume clinical trials of Tysabri, with close monitoring for side effects, so researchers could gain information to better understand the risks.
The companies said they would resume trials of Tysabri as a stand-alone treatment within weeks.
"This is a positive signal the FDA is more comfortable with this drug than many people have thought," said Matt Stephani, a portfolio manager for Idex Great Companies.
Stephani said he still thought the drug had the potential for sales of more than $1 billion a year. If approved, he said Tysabri would most likely be cleared for use as a stand-alone medicine, rather than in combination with existing drugs such as Biogen's own Avonex. He said serious safety problems were seen in patients who took both drugs, not in those who took Tysabri alone.
Christopher Raymond, an analyst with Robert W. Baird & Co., said a mid-year relaunch of Tysabri already was factored into Biogen Idec's earnings guidance, so the resumption of use in trials was "probably not a surprise."
He forecast worldwide sales of $23 million this year, $120 million in 2007 and $175 million in 2008.
"From what we hear, patients are clamoring to get this drug back on market, but the willingness of neurologists to take this risk with their patients is harder to gauge," Raymond said.
An FDA advisory committee is scheduled to meet March 7 to discuss whether Tysabri should return to the U.S. market. The panel's opinion is important because the FDA usually follows recommendations from advisory committees.
Biogen shares rose as much as 4 percent on news that trials could soon resume. In late-afternoon trading, Biogen was up $1.33, or 3 percent, at $45.71. Elan shares rose as much as 8.2 percent and were up 57 cents, or 4 percent, at $14.66 on the New York Stock Exchange.Comment
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Ya know it's a bit concerning that the pop got sold hard...and after hours it traded down to 14.25.....
If it were genuine bullishness I would have expected it to close at it's highs, and trade up after hours, possibly gap up on volume tommorrow.....but instead it hits its head right on channel resistance, gives a channel short, and a wicked hourly candle that doesn't hint bull. If it loses 14.16 support I think it's in some trouble...
But I note that the 'c' was confirmed today by that pop. That means 'c' support is the low 4 days ago at 13.85. That's crucial support boys and girls. If that fails, ya got 'c' failure and potential for 10.00 in a hurry.
Gotta say; the chart action lately has sucked bilge water.
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im nor oworried about the phoney after hours hedge trading with elan you can see that all the time, i buy when these fools throw out free stock.
$30.00 plus by year end
from Davy:
Elan (ELN US)
FDA removes clinical hold on Tysabri—an incremental positive
Previous close: $14.54 Target: $18.00 (31/01/06; previously $13.00, issued 09/08/05) Analyst: [email protected]
The FDA has finally lifted the clinical hold that was placed on Tysabri at the end of February last year. This now allows
Elan/Biogen Idec to resume dosing in the open-label safety trials which had commenced and were part of the original
submission for the product. Though this is a separate FDA decision to a commercial re-launch, it is nonetheless an
incremental positive for the product as the advisory committee meeting approaches.
That the FDA could lift the clinical hold ahead of any decision on re-launch is understandable, given that clinical trials are a
much lower-risk and controlled way of exposing patients to drug treatment. Patients who enrolled in the Phase III MS
programme and participated in the safety evaluation are eligible for the study—this could be up to 2,000 patients. We would
anticipate a high percentage will enrol.
One should also note that the advisory committee meeting is likely to extend into March 8th, due to the large number of
patients planning to speak in the public forum.
Meanwhile, Biogen Idec has reported its results. Avonex revenues grew by 12% in Q4, to $413m. Full-year Avonex sales
increased 9% to $1.54bn. In 2005, US sales were $939m (flattish) and international sales increased 22% to $604mComment
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lol that "after-hours phoney hedge trading" almost a year ago wasn't too phoney; overnight smash of -67%. I find it difficult to believe you could ever dream to say that afterhours price movement is phoney. Dude!Originally posted by kingofthehill
The way I'm seeing it is bulls have a hoop to jump through today. The r/r sits in favor of bears from these levels. Just took some short 14.65 with 1% risk to target 31%. r/r is 31!!! Shoo.
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That's a very risky short dude...jejejeOriginally posted by spikefaderlol that "after-hours phoney hedge trading" almost a year ago wasn't too phoney; overnight smash of -67%. I find it difficult to believe you could ever dream to say that afterhours price movement is phoney. Dude!
The way I'm seeing it is bulls have a hoop to jump through today. The r/r sits in favor of bears from these levels. Just took some short 14.65 with 1% risk to target 31%. r/r is 31!!! Shoo.
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