Not asking for much in 2012, help wanted

[billyjoe]

Here's a chart comparing many of the picks. Notice how Phoenix' SXL(red line) takes off around Aug. 1st just when many others tank. Also SXL and TNH hold steady last 4 months as others fall.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=hhs#symbol=hhs;range=1y;compare=sxl+bpt+aixg+tnk+tnh;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

--------------------billy

[mimo_100]

First of all, thanks billy for taking on the recording secretary duties of this contest - it is/was a lot of work and I join with others in thanking you.

Congratulations to everyone for having the guts to enter, no matter where you finished in the standings.

I would love to see a contest where we pick two stocks to double in 2013 - If there is enough interest I would track them with quarterly, maybe monthly updates - Starting deadline Sunday January 13 at noon - duplicates allowed - I will start a new thread " Twenty Thirteen Two Baggers" if anyone is interested.

Tim

[billyjoe]

new way of figuring results

I recently looked at a vectorvest video that experimented with various stops over the last 11 years. In up and down trends from 2002 to the present time they said the best combination consistently was to sell at 30% gains or stop at 15% loss whichever came first. I checked on our dividend stocks from Jan 2012 to Dec. 31st and the results were surprising. At least 2 of the stocks would have been sold at 30% gain instead of ending the year with big losses (TNK, AIXG). Two stocks would have sold at 15% loss instead of ending the year with > 30% losses (HHS,BPT).

Only 3 stocks ended the year with gains >30% SCCO, TNH, SXL but with a sell at 30%, 10 stocks would have made the 30%, TNH,TNK,SXL,VZ,AIXG,AI,MBT,AGNC,T,SCCO and MO just missed it by a few cents.

This is how the stocks ended our contest:

1.Phoenix-------TNH 170.45-214.09 +16.86 div+35.49%*
2.Phoenix-------SXL 38.46-49.73+1.32 div.-----+32.74 **
3.TraderPlayer-SCCO 31.57-37.86 +3.71 div.---+31.68 ***
4.Peanuts-------MBT 15.06-18.65 +.76 div.-----+28.88
5.em26jamie--AGNC 28.33-28.90 +5.00 div.---+19.66

6.Riverbabe-----FSC 9.73-10.42 +1.15 div.-----+18.91%
7.Wooish--------VZ 38.54-43.27 +2.02 div.-----+17.51
8.Jiesen---------AI 20.71-20.77 +3.50 div.------+17.19
9.Louetta--------T 30.46-33.71 +1.76 div.------+16.45
10.Skiracer-----MO 28.65-31.44 +1.70 div.-----+15.67

11.Billy---------IDE 15.73-16.39 +1.71 div.------+15.07%
12.Mr.Market--MLU 63.32-44.47+28.02 div.&dist+14.48
13.Mimo--------PM 77.65-83.64+3.28 div.-------+11.94
14.Louetta----UVV 46.68-49.91+1.96 div.-------+11.12
15.Mimo-------NCV 9.09-8.69 +1.08 div.---------+7.48

16.Wooish----NYCB 13.30-13.10+1.00 div.------+6.02%
17.Skiracer----DUK 66.33-63.80+3.03 div.-------+.75
18.Riverbabe---KMP 84.48-79.79 +4.85 div.------+.19
19.Deaddog---NLY 16.10-14.04 +2.05 div.------- -.06
20.IIC-----------HE 26.79-25.14 +1.24 div.------ -1.53

21.Billy---------SO 45.87-42.81+1.94 div.------- -2.44%
22.Peanuts----BWP 28.77-24.90+2.13 div.------ -6.05
23.IIC-----------ED 62.10-55.54 +2.42 div.----- -6.67
24.Hags-------ETR 71.92-63.75 +3.32 div.----- -6.74
25.Deaddog---AIXG 13.81-11.95 +.47 div.----- -10.07

26.TraderPlayer-TNK 3.73-2.90 +.40 div.------ -11.53%
27.Hags---------APL 38.91-31.57 +2.24 div.-- -13.11
28.em26jamie--WPZ 62.77-48.66 +3.14 div.- -17.48
29.Jiesen--------HHS 9.11-5.90 +.43 div.----- -30.52
30.Mr.Market---BPT 115.95-68.54 +9.29 div. -32.88

This is how it could have been. A much better scenario.

1. Phoenix-----------TNH +30%
2. Phoenix-----------SXL-+30%
3. TraderPlayer-----SCCO+30%
4. Peanuts-----------MBT +30%
5. em26jamie------AGNC+30%
6. TraderPlayer------TNK +30%
7. Wooish------------VZ-+30%
8. Deaddog---------AIXG+30%
9. Jiesen--------------AI-+30%
10. Louetta------------T-+30%
11. Riverbabe--------FSC+18.91%
12. Skiracer-----------MO+15.67
13. Billy---------------IDE +15.07
14. Mr.Market--------MLU+14.48
15. Mimo--------------PM-+11.94
16. Louetta-----------UVV+11.12
17. Mimo-------------NCV-+7.48
18. Wooish----------NYCB-+6.02
19. Skiracer-----------DUK +.75
20. Riverbabe-------- KMP +.19
21. Deaddog----------NLY -.06%
22. IIC-----------------HE -1.53
23. Billy----------------SO-2.44
24. Peanuts----------BWP-6.05
25. IIC-----------------ED-6.67
26. Hags--------------ETR-6.74
27. Hags---------------APL-15.00%
28. em26jamie-------WPZ-15.00
29. Jiesen-------------HHS-15.00
30. Mr.Market--------BPT -15.00

Phoenix would lose 8.23% of his gains since both of his picks finished above +30% and Hags would lose 1.89% since APL dropped below -15% but finished -13.11%. Mimo,River,Ski,Billy,IIC remain the same. The other 8 increase their gains or decrease their losses.

-------------billy

[riverbabe]

Fascinating billy. I'll stop short of "too much time on your hands" because this kind of study is eye-opening and very instructive. Thank you! In contrast to so many on this forum, I have never liked that old 7-8% stop loss. So many stocks are news-driven as well as fundamentals- and chart-driven. A 15% stop is still protective but not so restrictive and can allow for a little leeway in actually ekeing out a gain instead of a loss. I know this is heresy to some but I still sleep well doing it this way. The 30% profit is optimistic but without oinking I would settle for locking in the HUGE ONE's 15% and buying again on a pull back. Good for vectorvest and many thanks to you.

[NCcoach]

I, too, appreciate the info you posted, Billy. That definitely had to take some time and it was very eye-opening. Thank you.

[billyjoe]

Forgot to mention, the 15% stop, 30% gain method is only for longer term holdings, not swing trading where gains of just a few percentage points are expected and targeted.

------------billy

[mimo_100]

I recently looked at a vectorvest video that experimented with various stops over the last 11 years. In up and down trends from 2002 to the present time they said the best combination consistently was to sell at 30% gains or stop at 15% loss whichever came first. I checked on our dividend stocks from Jan 2012 to Dec. 31st and the results were surprising. At least 2 of the stocks would have been sold at 30% gain instead of ending the year with big losses (TNK, AIXG). Two stocks would have sold at 15% loss instead of ending the year with > 30% losses (HHS,BPT).....

billy,

Thanks for bringing this study to our attention. A few years ago I did a study of MrMarket picks. I found out that the average stock actually lost 8% from the purchase price before turning around. I wonder how the Huge One's stocks would fare in your vectorvest-inspired study.

What software did you use to compile your results?

Tim

[mimo_100]

Here is a link to a revealing article from the Cleveland Federal Reserve. The phrase "Credit Easing" is used many times.

http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2009/0209/02monpol.cfm

[billyjoe]

billy,

Thanks for bringing this study to our attention. A few years ago I did a study of MrMarket picks. I found out that the average stock actually lost 8% from the purchase price before turning around. I wonder how the Huge One's stocks would fare in your vectorvest-inspired study.

What software did you use to compile your results?

Tim

Tim, I compiled the results manually using data from Big Charts Historical Quotes http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp for our picks over the last year and used Dividend Channel http://www.dividendchannel.com/history/?symbol=hql to match the price data with the dividend pay dates. As for the stops used by Vectorvest they did the calculations using 4000 historical portfolio scans in bull and bear markets to determine the 5 best performing then used 2000 stop combinations to determine the best for each scenario. I wasn't clear in explaining that the 30% gain 15% stop loss was the best just in the S&P500/RT portfolio and that was for closing prices only. Using intraday it was 35% gain 15% loss. Using lower priced more volatile Russell 2000 stocks the numbers changed to approx. 50% gain 10% stop loss. My picks would be a combo of small and large cap so I'd have to adjust the stops accordingly maybe on an individual basis. Another interesting detail was that they determined a 5 stock portfolio worked best with replacements being plugged in as stocks stopped out. This wasn't automatic as market conditions at the time dictated whether or not to buy at all.


----------------billy

[mimo_100]

Tim, I compiled the results manually using data from Big Charts Historical Quotes http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp for our picks over the last year and used Dividend Channel http://www.dividendchannel.com/history/?symbol=hql to match the price data with the dividend pay dates. As for the stops used by Vectorvest they did the calculations using 4000 historical portfolio scans in bull and bear markets to determine the 5 best performing then used 2000 stop combinations to determine the best for each scenario. I wasn't clear in explaining that the 30% gain 15% stop loss was the best just in the S&P500/RT portfolio and that was for closing prices only. Using intraday it was 35% gain 15% loss. Using lower priced more volatile Russell 2000 stocks the numbers changed to approx. 50% gain 10% stop loss. My picks would be a combo of small and large cap so I'd have to adjust the stops accordingly maybe on an individual basis. Another interesting detail was that they determined a 5 stock portfolio worked best with replacements being plugged in as stocks stopped out. This wasn't automatic as market conditions at the time dictated whether or not to buy at all.


----------------billy

billy,

If I understand you correctly, it sounds like picking stocks from the Russell 2000 would potentially yield the greatest return in this study. I am curious what the average time (in days) there was between the purchase and the sale ( I assume these were long transactions only.)

Here is a link to the MM study I did years ago.

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showthread.php?p=897&highlight=threw#post897

Thanks for the quote links.

[billyjoe]

billy,

If I understand you correctly, it sounds like picking stocks from the Russell 2000 would potentially yield the greatest return in this study. I am curious what the average time (in days) there was between the purchase and the sale ( I assume these were long transactions only.)

Here is a link to the MM study I did years ago.

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showthread.php?p=897&highlight=threw#post897

Thanks for the quote links.

Tim, You're right, the Russell 2000 portfolio produced the biggest gains and was much more volatile. Vectorvest says to allow an extra 5% for the stop if you can monitor intraday rather than setting automatic stops based on closing price. This 5% seems to be across the board for most portfolios intraday vs. end of day. The sell price remains the same percentage 50%/8% for end closing prices and 50% vs. 13% stop if you can monitor intraday prices. If I could run the back tester from 2005-2012 I could determine the average hold time. I don't know if they have calculated it or would tell me if I asked. I will ask! They gave me free access for 90 days.

---------------billy