The Babe's Trades

[billyjoe]

River, How about SSH, Sunshine Heart? I may just buy it for the name alone!

--------------billy

[jiesen]

LOL billy. The predictability is really true. It's not like being married to them (so I'm not cheating,) it's knowing when and how to trade 'em. I'll take that fortune any way I can get it.

yes, exactly. making a fortune is not boring, by any means! and doing it this way is definitely not cheating. make a buck where you can when you can, I say...

[riverbabe]

River, Your comment on trading GMCR for years struck a note with me. Have you ever thought of just trading 4 or 5 stocks, the same 4 or 5 stocks forever? Some stocks are very predictable in their behaviour. There are a couple I've traded for a few years and almost can tell what's going to happen next, but then wouldn't making a fortune with this method be boring and feel a bit like cheating?

------------------billy

LOL billy. The predictability is really true. It's not like being married to them (so I'm not cheating,) it's knowing when and how to trade 'em. I'll take that fortune any way I can get it.

[billyjoe]

River, Your comment on trading GMCR for years struck a note with me. Have you ever thought of just trading 4 or 5 stocks, the same 4 or 5 stocks forever? Some stocks are very predictable in their behaviour. There are a couple I've traded for a few years and almost can tell what's going to happen next, but then wouldn't making a fortune with this method be boring and feel a bit like cheating?

------------------billy

[billyjoe]

Mimo, I had been visiting sites that used the DMA and then switched to VV and assumed they were using the DMA istead of a MA. I think they used DMA in the past so it was confusing. With all these proprietary indicators nobody wants to use an indicator easily duplicated, then there'd be no point in paying a fee.

-------------------billy

[mimo_100]

mimo, The RT is a proprietary number ranging on a 1-2 scale from VV that measures timing. I was mistaken, the DMA is actually a simple MA based on the stop price that is continually raised as the stock's price increases.

----------------billy

Here is what I thought you were talking about:

Displaced Moving Average Definition


The displaced moving average (DMA) is created by shifting the moving averages forward or backwards in time by a specific time interval. The displaced moving average is used for two primary reasons:


Shift the moving average backwards to contain the trend bettter, in order to stay in long-term positions


Shift moving average forward in order to become a leading indicator, to get out of positions once counter rallies develop.

http://tradingsim.com/blog/displaced-moving-average/

[billyjoe]

mimo, The RT is a proprietary number ranging on a 1-2 scale from VV that measures timing. I was mistaken, the DMA is actually a simple MA based on the stop price that is continually raised as the stock's price increases.

----------------billy

[mimo_100]

mimo, I've got to keep better records as to what strategy was used to find these stocks. When a stock is touted by anyone ....e that's why she is within $100 of her all time high and I'm a few thousand away from my high of May 22nd.

-------------------billy

billy,
I have the same record-keeping dilemma that you have. I recently purchased a pocket-sized spiral notebook from the Dollar Store (where everything is a dollar). I date and record prospective stocks and where they came from, along with the current price. It is kind of working. I like reading the Morpheus thread here. Their explanations are simple and thorough.


I will look at the screens. What is RT? I assume you look at a negative DMA, correct?

Tim

[billyjoe]

mimo, I've got to keep better records as to what strategy was used to find these stocks. When a stock is touted by anyone I look at the chart and the fundies and usually don't buy. I bought a years membership in Morpheus Trading, a year of premium research from Zacks ($199), and month to month from Vectorvest ($59/month). FINVIZ, Dividend Channel, and BigCharts are my favorite free sites. MX was mentioned by Morpheus as a possible set up in early May. They never bought it. I really liked the chart and fundies. Bought May 15th at 16, now 22.86. BWEN was also mentioned by Morpheus. I don't know if they bought it since it's not on current holdings and not far enough back to show up in their archives. I bought 8/7 at 4.80 now 7.69. BLOX was sent to me in an e-mail during a free trial at Zacks. Then I also found it at Vectorvest but I didn't keep track of the screen they were using at the time. Bought BLOX 7/16 at 30.20 now 44.49. One of my favorite current screens is for DMA above 10 day and 65 day with uptrending earnings at 9 month high as well as RT at 9 month high. Being in the top 3 in industry group also helps.
Also I try to keep stops no higher than 8%. With a basket of stocks there's usually something to dump but not much lately. Sometimes I'll sell a laggard just to get $$ to buy a hot prospect.
Have only sold 4 stocks in last 2 months and hold 52 positions in 33 stocks with 44 positive and 8 negative. Around 30 positions are in high div. payers that are long term holdings. Most of the shorter term trades are in my wife's account. Maybe that's why she is within $100 of her all time high and I'm a few thousand away from my high of May 22nd.

-------------------billy

[mimo_100]

River, I always read "The Babe's Trades" at least I thought I did. I missed the NEON posts. Glad you are doing well. I buy a basket of stocks and really can never predict which ones will do the best. Maybe it's those with the least hoopla. My 3 latest dandies BWEN +59.85%, BLOX +47.01%, and MX +42.83%. Someone mentioned them, I researched, bought them, and got lucky. Really didn't have great hopes for any of these just wanted a gain.

--------------------billy

Billy,

You wrote ... "Someone mentioned them" ...

Too bad you didn't record who it was - I would love to track their current/future picks.

[billyjoe]

River, I always read "The Babe's Trades" at least I thought I did. I missed the NEON posts. Glad you are doing well. I buy a basket of stocks and really can never predict which ones will do the best. Maybe it's those with the least hoopla. My 3 latest dandies BWEN +59.85%, BLOX +47.01%, and MX +42.83%. Someone mentioned them, I researched, bought them, and got lucky. Really didn't have great hopes for any of these just wanted a gain.

--------------------billy

[riverbabe]

tiedyed, completely missed your post on VPHM. Really sorry. But big congrats on today's HUGE GAIN!

[tiedyed1]

Vphm

River, take a good look at VPHM. I have owned this for quite some time and continue to accumulate it. Big pop on big pharma eyeing an acquisition, but I see a significant upside without a buyout (and would actually prefer to keep holding it for another 10 years).

VPHM is not a speculative one hit wonder and has a numerous money makers just starting to be recognized.

-Adam

ViroPharma Said to Hire Goldman Amid Interest From Sanofi
ViroPharma full value up to $52 per share in right situation, says Deutsche Bank

Well it looks like Big Pharma is now in play and probably going to buy VPHM. This was not my preference but am not complaining!

-Adam
tiedyed1

[riverbabe]

Took another 12+% out of NEON yesterday in one day. Still swing trading it. Bot @ 7.10 this AM. Now at 7.39. Early HOD @ 7.73. Volatile but not boring.

[tiedyed1]

look at VPHM

I'm still in ARNA and holding a bit longer. (As previously mentioned if I had my full position i would have sold off half already; but my sights are on $11.40.) Many biotechs showed super strength today (i.e. look at VPHM which I mentioned earlier, up 8% today).

-Adam

1/18 update: grabbed the profit and got out of ARNA at 10.62. (I saw 11 in sight and got greedy but stopped out and happy it did.) I am decent at spotting breakouts but knowing when to get out is always the toughest for me.

River, take a good look at VPHM. I have owned this for quite some time and continue to accumulate it. Big pop on big pharma eyeing an acquisition, but I see a significant upside without a buyout (and would actually prefer to keep holding it for another 10 years).

VPHM is not a speculative one hit wonder and has a numerous money makers just starting to be recognized.

-Adam

p.s. on a whole separate topic, anyone looking to get back into ARNA at these (<$7.50) levels? I do not see the Consumer Report article holding that much weight (pun intended) when it comes down to the consumer who will want BELVIQ. Thoughts?