The Babe's Trades

[billyjoe]

tiedyed,

I don't have River's knowledge of medical stocks, but MDCO sure looks strong beating earnings and revenue estimates by quite a bit. The only explanation for this drop is either a negative outlook for the market as a whole or the fact that MDCO was up over 50% YTD even before the earnings report. Good eye, tiedyed !

---------------billy

[tiedyed1]

Mdco?

Hi River;
I am wondering if you have any opinion on The Medicines Company, MDCO.

Their lock up period just ended and I hear of employees cashing in which is causing the dip today and considering an entry.

Any opinion is appreciated.
Thanks; -Adam
tiedyed1

[billyjoe]

River, No I didn't mean "insider" in the usual way. I guess I meant inside smarts, knowledge through education and observation. I'd like to have a talk with my sleep disorder doctor to find out if JAZZ's narcolepsy drug is being prescribed more often as the number of baby boomers increases. Maybe a friendly pharmacist would be even better. These biotech stocks drive me crazy.

-------------billy

[riverbabe]

River, Do you have any insider info on JAZZ ? Will report earnings on 2/26, if it beats it's off to the races. At least 70% of their revenue is from Xyrem, a narcolepsy drug that dominates the market. Volume is drying up, price is above 20,50,200 dma, ROE is #1 of 413 biotechs, 7th of 413 in earnings growth, PEG ratio .90, 1.40 brokers rec., EPS next 5 yr. 27%, 4 weeks of consolidation. Consensus earnings 1.27, but can they beat it?

Lazard Capital says consensus is too low especially with price increase in Xyrem. Their target is 87. Here's chart 6 months. What do you think?

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=jazz&insttype=&freq=1&show=True&time=7

----------------billy

Billy, I NEVER have insider info! I know you didn't mean that. I haven't found anything significant on the boards I follow. I find the SEC filings of 1/21/13; 12/12/12; 12/10/12; 11/12/12 and 9/17/12 significantly interesting for future catalyst opportunity. (Patent infringement suit? Generic competition? Positive Markham hearing on patent claims?) I know you have financial info, so won't go into that here. I suspect the price rise now may be a run-up to potential earnings surprise. (Lazard might just be right.) Good luck.

[billyjoe]

River, Do you have any insider info on JAZZ ? Will report earnings on 2/26, if it beats it's off to the races. At least 70% of their revenue is from Xyrem, a narcolepsy drug that dominates the market. Volume is drying up, price is above 20,50,200 dma, ROE is #1 of 413 biotechs, 7th of 413 in earnings growth, PEG ratio .90, 1.40 brokers rec., EPS next 5 yr. 27%, 4 weeks of consolidation. Consensus earnings 1.27, but can they beat it?

Lazard Capital says consensus is too low especially with price increase in Xyrem. Their target is 87. Here's chart 6 months. What do you think?

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=jazz&insttype=&freq=1&show=True&time=7

----------------billy

[riverbabe]

billy, check this out! vringo.freeforums.net. Started by Stevekimlaw. Way better than YMB!

[tiedyed1]

I'm still in ARNA and holding a bit longer. (As previously mentioned if I had my full position i would have sold off half already; but my sights are on $11.40.) Many biotechs showed super strength today (i.e. look at VPHM which I mentioned earlier, up 8% today).

billy, I have owned MTZ for a while. Got in at 22 and just like the chart and trend for that company.

-Adam

1/18 update: grabbed the profit and got out of ARNA at 10.62. (I saw 11 in sight and got greedy but stopped out and happy it did.) I am decent at spotting breakouts but knowing when to get out is always the toughest for me.

[billyjoe]

mimo, Sold ARNA today for 17% in 8 days, sold MTZ for 7.9% in 20 days. Both Morpheus setups although they sold MTZ for no gain. I held since I may have been using unsettled funds and didn't want to be banned from trading. Luckily it went up from the low that day, Dec. 31st.

--------------------billy

[mimo_100]

If I had my full position I would be taking some off around 10.20 and letting the rest run; however, based on not going in as much as normal and based on todays HUGE volume and pop, I am thinking let it ride to $11.40 area.
Just my .02

Wish all my entries were like this one....

Another one I have brought up in this thread is VPHM, which I still really like and has been showing some nice rise this past week.

Not sure if you still own this, but it closed at 10.81 on a volume of 27,914,979, twice the normal 10-day average volume.

[riverbabe]

River, I really like DHR. Didn't realize they bought out BEC . Unfortunately I hesitated too long and never bought BEC so here's another chance with DHR. Market cap over 40 bil. they are a dominant company in lab equipment manufacturing as well as dental products and water treatment analysis, diagnostic instruments for several fields. They're divided into 5 segments: Life Sciences, Diagnostics, Industrial Tech, Test & Measurement, and Environmental Analysis. They are so diversified one wonders how they can keep all divisions running smoothly.


Within .50 of an all time high with lots of cash I'm buying shortly. Danaher is a name that isn't mentioned so often here but has appeared in several of Mr. Market's dumps.

---------------billy

Sorry billy, didn't see your post till now. The JPM conference swarms with investors. The presentor stocks usually get a boost, witness ARNA and DHR. Rosy pictures for both. I too like DHR. Will put on my watch list. Thanks!

[billyjoe]

River, I really like DHR. Didn't realize they bought out BEC . Unfortunately I hesitated too long and never bought BEC so here's another chance with DHR. Market cap over 40 bil. they are a dominant company in lab equipment manufacturing as well as dental products and water treatment analysis, diagnostic instruments for several fields. They're divided into 5 segments: Life Sciences, Diagnostics, Industrial Tech, Test & Measurement, and Environmental Analysis. They are so diversified one wonders how they can keep all divisions running smoothly.


Within .50 of an all time high with lots of cash I'm buying shortly. Danaher is a name that isn't mentioned so often here but has appeared in several of Mr. Market's dumps.

---------------billy

[mimo_100]

Mimo, I had a heads up from Morpheus for an entry at 9.28 , but it never reached that number until a blip at about 3:45PM Monday. You can see it on this 2 day chart. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/qui...ow=True&time=2

It went to 9.28 or so for a minute then dropped back to 9.19 and I just happened to check the price at that minute and put in my order before the close. Just dumb luck. The volume today was higher than I expected.

-----------------billy

Great story, Billy. Luck is a large part of success.

[billyjoe]

Mimo, I had a heads up from Morpheus for an entry at 9.28 , but it never reached that number until a blip at about 3:45PM Monday. You can see it on this 2 day chart. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/qui...ow=True&time=2

It went to 9.28 or so for a minute then dropped back to 9.19 and I just happened to check the price at that minute and put in my order before the close. Just dumb luck. The volume today was higher than I expected.

-----------------billy

[mimo_100]

tiedyed,

ARNA is one sweet stock. Normal volume 8 mil. I was hoping for a breakout with 12 mil. and gained 9.6% with 30.5 mil traded. Sure glad I checked the computer to get the entry at 9.19. If the market would cooperate we could get a string of these.

-------------------billy

What computer did you check, billy?

[billyjoe]

tiedyed,

ARNA is one sweet stock. Normal volume 8 mil. I was hoping for a breakout with 12 mil. and gained 9.6% with 30.5 mil traded. Sure glad I checked the computer to get the entry at 9.19. If the market would cooperate we could get a string of these.

-------------------billy