The Babe's Trades

[riverbabe]

Just took another 8.83% out of NEON. Bot 5.099, Sold 5.55.

[riverbabe]

neon

Just took another 8.21% out of NEON in one day. (Bot 5.24, sld 5.66 av).

[riverbabe]

Thanks, antioch6.

[antioch6]

Yes!!!

Actually, you don't and this was publically published this AM.

James Altucher: Why The Stock Market Is A Sucker's Game Right Now (And What Stocks I Own)
Apr 30 2013, 11:53 | 148 comments | includes: CGIX.OB, CRRS.OB, NEON, PTRC.OB, TROV, VRNG
Disclosure: I am long CRRS.OB, PTRC.OB, VRNG, NEON, CGIX.OB, TROV. (More...)

People have called me a "perma-bull" forever. Mish Shedlock called me a "wacko." Zerohedge has called me insane. Nouriel Roubini has laughed in my face. My daughters still quote Don Luskin when he was on CNBC shaking his head and saying, "James, James, James..." while laughing after I said the market was going to hit new highs.

Well, the market has hit new highs. That's ok for those guys. I'm sure they all do well on their newsletters. I have no newsletter. I only invest with my own money. I live and die in the markets and I don't depend on anyone else.

Is there a reason to change my mind? Not really. Eventually, the market will be higher than it is now.

But for the first time in a long time, I'm not a super bull on the overall market (although I like certain smaller stocks, see below).

The overall market (let's say, the S&P 500) price is a function of supply and demand. I know people know this from Economics 101 and they view this as a micro-economic principle but it's also macro-economic. It's not only the price of Oranges determined by supply and demand, the aggregated price of every company in the world is also determined by this.

So what is "Supply" in terms of the stock market? Answer: It's the total number of shares outstanding.

What is "Demand"? It's the appetite to buy shares.

Supply is going down. This is both a good thing and a bad thing.

The good: Companies have enormous profit margins and are using their excess cash to buy back shares. This, of course, reduces shares outstanding. When companies with $100 billion in cash like Apple buy back shares, this reduces supply for the big mutual funds, etc.

Also good: When supply goes down, price goes up. This is why the stock market right now is at all-time highs.

But then there is the BAD: I am seeing first hand within the private companies that I am invested in: nobody wants to go public. How come? Private markets are valuing companies higher than the public is.

That's really funny: the PUBLIC is actually smarter than the supposed smart money. Look at Facebook (FB), Groupon, and Zynga (ZNGA) for examples.

And even the companies that want to go public: it's pretty damn hard. I can't quote you statistics. I only see this because I'm getting all the calls from brokers. If a broker is calling me to dump their little shitty IPO, it means they can't get institutions in.

How come?

Demand: Everyone is still pretty nervous.

Someone asked me the other day: when will this recession be over?

Guess what? It's been over for four years.

But people don't seem to know that?

How come? Because they feel like shit. Because people are getting jobs less than what their skillset suggests they should get. Because people are taking jobs for pay that doesn't match what they would've gotten ten years ago. Underemployment, as this is called, is supposedly around 20% but my guess is it's more like 30-40%.

Things feel like they suck.

Nobody feels like the stock market is back. Or that housing is starting to creep up. Or that America is starting to insource manufacturing again because globalization has crept up prices worldwide.

People look at their crappy jobs and salaries and say, "I don't feel so good". And so they get a scarcity mentality and don't want to buy shares.

I don't blame them.

Meanwhile, supply is going to flatten out. There's only so much stock that people can buy.

So Demand will probably remain the same, but now Supply will stop going down.

What happens then? Stocks go down. Or struggle to stay afloat.

My solution: I am buying smaller stocks where I am not competing for information against massive hedge funds and mutual funds that do everything they can to cheat the system (insider trading, manipulative trading, high frequency trading, special access to secondaries, etc).

I also invest in long-term demographic trends that I believe in. These companies will do well regardless of the overall stock market. It's why microcaps always outperform large caps in the long run.

So I'm invested in

Petro River (PTRC.OB) - America is the new Middle East in terms of oil. All of the oil that we stopped drilling for in 1971 because the technology was not there, we are now drilling for. Fracking is here to stay and will drill up the several billion barrels of oil underneath the Mississippi Lime.

Corporate Resources (CRRS.OB) - I'm on the Board of Directors so can't say much. Needless to say, no company wants to deal with the red tape of Obamacare. It's a nightmare. Even Democrats now admit it. Google it. I'm not political. I haven't voted since 1991. But a total of zero companies want to deal with Obamacare. So what do they do? They fire everyone and outsource to temp staffing companies. That's why I like being on the board. So I can see first-hand what is happening in this industry.

Trovagene (TROV) and Cancer Genetics (CGIX.OB) - We all know three things about healthcare over the next 10-30 years:

- taxes are going up on medical devices. So this will be detrimental to the 77 million aging baby boomers who have just started retiring.

- "prevention is the cure." People have ignored this for the past century but they can't anymore. Lifespans have gone up. People need good diagnostics to prevent cancer and other diseases that are common killers. I can go into details on why these two are the best and I will at some point (I already have repeatedly on TROV when it was half the price it is now).

- Lifespans are going up. The average lifespan was 61 60 years ago. Now it's 79 and going higher. So people will need medical care. Since people can no longer afford medical care, they will need prevention. The FDA, drug companies, insurance companies, and the government, have made medical care too expensive. So diagnostics, which are easier to get approval for, are the answer.

Vringo (VRNG), Neonode (NEON) - I own these for the patent plans which I've described in multiple articles.

And that's it. My wife owns a handful of other big cap stocks but in small amounts.

What I don't do: I never daytrade. I used to and I used to make a good living at it. But in the link above I describe why I don't.

And I will not own the broader market here. It's a criminal enterprise. That's a sucker's game at this point.

Additional disclosure: I have no intention of selling any of these stocks any time soon.

(This is the link to "It's a criminal..." http://www.jamesaltucher.com/2012/03...n-wall-street/)

Agree with this post all the way!

[Deaddog]

Thanks RB.

[riverbabe]

Gotta register to read the whole thing.
Too Bad!!!

Actually, you don't and this was publically published this AM.

James Altucher: Why The Stock Market Is A Sucker's Game Right Now (And What Stocks I Own)
Apr 30 2013, 11:53 | 148 comments | includes: CGIX.OB, CRRS.OB, NEON, PTRC.OB, TROV, VRNG
Disclosure: I am long CRRS.OB, PTRC.OB, VRNG, NEON, CGIX.OB, TROV. (More...)

People have called me a "perma-bull" forever. Mish Shedlock called me a "wacko." Zerohedge has called me insane. Nouriel Roubini has laughed in my face. My daughters still quote Don Luskin when he was on CNBC shaking his head and saying, "James, James, James..." while laughing after I said the market was going to hit new highs.

Well, the market has hit new highs. That's ok for those guys. I'm sure they all do well on their newsletters. I have no newsletter. I only invest with my own money. I live and die in the markets and I don't depend on anyone else.

Is there a reason to change my mind? Not really. Eventually, the market will be higher than it is now.

But for the first time in a long time, I'm not a super bull on the overall market (although I like certain smaller stocks, see below).

The overall market (let's say, the S&P 500) price is a function of supply and demand. I know people know this from Economics 101 and they view this as a micro-economic principle but it's also macro-economic. It's not only the price of Oranges determined by supply and demand, the aggregated price of every company in the world is also determined by this.

So what is "Supply" in terms of the stock market? Answer: It's the total number of shares outstanding.

What is "Demand"? It's the appetite to buy shares.

Supply is going down. This is both a good thing and a bad thing.

The good: Companies have enormous profit margins and are using their excess cash to buy back shares. This, of course, reduces shares outstanding. When companies with $100 billion in cash like Apple buy back shares, this reduces supply for the big mutual funds, etc.

Also good: When supply goes down, price goes up. This is why the stock market right now is at all-time highs.

But then there is the BAD: I am seeing first hand within the private companies that I am invested in: nobody wants to go public. How come? Private markets are valuing companies higher than the public is.

That's really funny: the PUBLIC is actually smarter than the supposed smart money. Look at Facebook (FB), Groupon, and Zynga (ZNGA) for examples.

And even the companies that want to go public: it's pretty damn hard. I can't quote you statistics. I only see this because I'm getting all the calls from brokers. If a broker is calling me to dump their little shitty IPO, it means they can't get institutions in.

How come?

Demand: Everyone is still pretty nervous.

Someone asked me the other day: when will this recession be over?

Guess what? It's been over for four years.

But people don't seem to know that?

How come? Because they feel like shit. Because people are getting jobs less than what their skillset suggests they should get. Because people are taking jobs for pay that doesn't match what they would've gotten ten years ago. Underemployment, as this is called, is supposedly around 20% but my guess is it's more like 30-40%.

Things feel like they suck.

Nobody feels like the stock market is back. Or that housing is starting to creep up. Or that America is starting to insource manufacturing again because globalization has crept up prices worldwide.

People look at their crappy jobs and salaries and say, "I don't feel so good". And so they get a scarcity mentality and don't want to buy shares.

I don't blame them.

Meanwhile, supply is going to flatten out. There's only so much stock that people can buy.

So Demand will probably remain the same, but now Supply will stop going down.

What happens then? Stocks go down. Or struggle to stay afloat.

My solution: I am buying smaller stocks where I am not competing for information against massive hedge funds and mutual funds that do everything they can to cheat the system (insider trading, manipulative trading, high frequency trading, special access to secondaries, etc).

I also invest in long-term demographic trends that I believe in. These companies will do well regardless of the overall stock market. It's why microcaps always outperform large caps in the long run.

So I'm invested in

Petro River (PTRC.OB) - America is the new Middle East in terms of oil. All of the oil that we stopped drilling for in 1971 because the technology was not there, we are now drilling for. Fracking is here to stay and will drill up the several billion barrels of oil underneath the Mississippi Lime.

Corporate Resources (CRRS.OB) - I'm on the Board of Directors so can't say much. Needless to say, no company wants to deal with the red tape of Obamacare. It's a nightmare. Even Democrats now admit it. Google it. I'm not political. I haven't voted since 1991. But a total of zero companies want to deal with Obamacare. So what do they do? They fire everyone and outsource to temp staffing companies. That's why I like being on the board. So I can see first-hand what is happening in this industry.

Trovagene (TROV) and Cancer Genetics (CGIX.OB) - We all know three things about healthcare over the next 10-30 years:

- taxes are going up on medical devices. So this will be detrimental to the 77 million aging baby boomers who have just started retiring.

- "prevention is the cure." People have ignored this for the past century but they can't anymore. Lifespans have gone up. People need good diagnostics to prevent cancer and other diseases that are common killers. I can go into details on why these two are the best and I will at some point (I already have repeatedly on TROV when it was half the price it is now).

- Lifespans are going up. The average lifespan was 61 60 years ago. Now it's 79 and going higher. So people will need medical care. Since people can no longer afford medical care, they will need prevention. The FDA, drug companies, insurance companies, and the government, have made medical care too expensive. So diagnostics, which are easier to get approval for, are the answer.

Vringo (VRNG), Neonode (NEON) - I own these for the patent plans which I've described in multiple articles.

And that's it. My wife owns a handful of other big cap stocks but in small amounts.

What I don't do: I never daytrade. I used to and I used to make a good living at it. But in the link above I describe why I don't.

And I will not own the broader market here. It's a criminal enterprise. That's a sucker's game at this point.

Additional disclosure: I have no intention of selling any of these stocks any time soon.

(This is the link to "It's a criminal..." http://www.jamesaltucher.com/2012/03...n-wall-street/)

[Deaddog]

I haven't been trading very much for the last year. One of my reasons is that I have been deeply distrustful of the new market dynamics. Today, in my inbox, came an article by James Altucher that hit just about every nail on the head of how I've been feeling. So, if you're interested, read on.
PS, I took a 24% gain out of NEON a few weeks ago and am almost ready to get back in.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1384...t-stocks-i-own

Gotta register to read the whole thing.
Too Bad!!!

[riverbabe]

Why

I haven't been trading very much for the last year. One of my reasons is that I have been deeply distrustful of the new market dynamics. Today, in my inbox, came an article by James Altucher that hit just about every nail on the head of how I've been feeling. So, if you're interested, read on.
PS, I took a 24% gain out of NEON a few weeks ago and am almost ready to get back in.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1384441-james-altucher-why-the-stock-market-is-a-sucker-s-game-right-now-and-what-stocks-i-own

[riverbabe]

Thank you netprf

A big thankyou to netprf (a Vringo Starr) at vringo.freeforums.net

Market Maker Surveillance Report.
PAMT & VRNG, Winning Stocks With Lowest Price Friction For Thursday, March 28th 2013

http://www.buyins.net/releases/index.php?sym=VRNG&id=357573

http://www.buyins.net/tools/symbol_stats.php?sym=VRNG

BUYINS.NET / www.buyins.net, announced today its proprietary Market Maker Friction Factor Report for Thursday. Since October 2008 market makers are now required to be on the bid as much as they are on the offer and for like amounts of stock. This Fair Market Making Requirement is designed to prevent market makers from manipulating stock prices. On Thursday there were 3917 companies with "abnormal" market making, 3145 companies with positive Friction Factors and 2279 companies with negative Friction Factors. Here is a list of the top companies with the largest percentage gain per share Thursday and low price friction (bullish). This means that there was more buying than selling in the stocks and their stock prices rose faster with less Friction.
Parametric Sound Corp (NASDAQ:PAMT), Vringo Inc (AMEX:VRNG).

Market Maker Friction Factor is shown in the chart below:

Symbol Change Percent Buy Volume Buy %% Sell Volume Sell %% Net Volume Friction

PAMT $3.170 18.78% 438,252 54.56% 350,871 43.69% 87,381 276

VRNG $0.440 16.00% 3,479,357 39.47% 3,026,036 34.33% 453,321 10,303

Analysis of the Friction Factor chart above shows that each of thestocks mentioned above have high net buy volumes (buy volume, sell volume) and low price friction in their stocks. The Friction Factor displays how many more shares of buying than selling are required to move a stock higher by one cent or how many more shares of selling than buying moves a stock lower by 1 cent.

For example, the chart above shows PAMT with a dollar gain Thursday of $3.17000 and a Friction Factor of 276 shares. That means that it only took 276 more shares of buying than selling to move PAMT higher by one penny. The Market Makers are currently allowing the stock to rise quickly (low friction). The combination of low friction and positive market direction can drive prices higher much faster than normal.

To access Friction Factor, Naked Short Data and SqueezeTrigger Prices on all stocks please visit http://www.buyins.net .

Read more: http://vringo.freeforums.net/index.c...#ixzz2P1nYQzvT

[riverbabe]

River;
I’m sorry; I know I promised not to hassle you but curiosity got the best of me.

Are you still holding AMRN and VRNG?

They breaking down technically and are making new yearly lows. What’s the plan?

Don't see you posting much, I hope every thing is good in your world.

DD

Hello Dog. Sorry haven't answered sooner but suffering from a bit of computer-eye strain so haven't been posting or reading much. Patent & biotech plays are a different kind of play, sometimes requiring quick trading if a pop actually happens, sometimes investing with a lot of patience, till the big payday hits. They are speculative! AMRN & VRNG are good examples. They are breaking down technically right now, each for its own good reason.

In AMRN, because there are a lot of early unknowable unknowns re. the success of its go-it-alone commercialization of Vascepa in Feb, its potential NCE status, etc. It will be bought out either sooner or later. I waited 5 years for AZ to buy out MEDI (after it commercialized the nasal flu vaccine), with a huge payday for my grandkids' college fund. I'll give AMRN one more quarter at least for solid results but will bail if it doesn't look good enough.

In VRNG because of Judge Jackson's (aka JJ) snail's pace in ruling on the post trial motions v. GOOG. But VRNG v. MSFT are negotiating a settlement prior to another trial. News of that bumped up the pps this week alone. This one (VRNG) is going to be another big payday and long term hold, in between averaging down and day trading the blips. (That's what I'm doing now, with trepidation because don't want to get caught with too few shares on the big announcement days). For a good read from one of the sane guys on VRNG, http://seekingalpha.com/article/1309..._article_title. Also, I know this guy from vringo.freeforums.net which is the best VRNG board around.

So, while these are trades turned into investments right now, I can be very patient when I want to be.

In the meantime, am taking good profits on my retirement divi stocks (bigger cap gains than divis) and will buy back when the market finally dips. (And it will).

Thanks for asking, but "Don't cry for me, Vancouver..." Who wants to trade this crazy volatility right now anyway?

[Deaddog]

River;
I’m sorry; I know I promised not to hassle you but curiosity got the best of me.

Are you still holding AMRN and VRNG?

They breaking down technically and are making new yearly lows. What’s the plan?

Don't see you posting much, I hope every thing is good in your world.

DD

[billyjoe]

River, How did you get the sketches from the VRNG trial out of the courtroom?

----------------billy

[riverbabe]

Vrng

Billy, this one is for you. http://www.dilbert.com/

[tiedyed1]

Billy & River, thanks for the opinions. I always appreciate them.

There are some employees cashing in after their lock up period (known 100% fact) and that is what I believe was Friday's dip. I like the entry for an addition to my longer look portfolio.

Thanks for your posts on this board. While I do not post much I am an avid and appreciative lurker

-Adam

[riverbabe]

Hi River;
I am wondering if you have any opinion on The Medicines Company, MDCO.

Their lock up period just ended and I hear of employees cashing in which is causing the dip today and considering an entry.

Any opinion is appreciated.
Thanks; -Adam
tiedyed1

I can't add anything to what billy said. A lot of insider selling this week. IBD seems to like it. Maybe look for a technical pullback to buy. Don't have any other info. Good luck.