The Babe's Trades

[riverbabe]

billy, check this out! vringo.freeforums.net. Started by Stevekimlaw. Way better than YMB!

[billyjoe]

River, Do you have any insider info on JAZZ ? Will report earnings on 2/26, if it beats it's off to the races. At least 70% of their revenue is from Xyrem, a narcolepsy drug that dominates the market. Volume is drying up, price is above 20,50,200 dma, ROE is #1 of 413 biotechs, 7th of 413 in earnings growth, PEG ratio .90, 1.40 brokers rec., EPS next 5 yr. 27%, 4 weeks of consolidation. Consensus earnings 1.27, but can they beat it?

Lazard Capital says consensus is too low especially with price increase in Xyrem. Their target is 87. Here's chart 6 months. What do you think?

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=jazz&insttype=&freq=1&show=True&time=7

----------------billy

[riverbabe]

River, Do you have any insider info on JAZZ ? Will report earnings on 2/26, if it beats it's off to the races. At least 70% of their revenue is from Xyrem, a narcolepsy drug that dominates the market. Volume is drying up, price is above 20,50,200 dma, ROE is #1 of 413 biotechs, 7th of 413 in earnings growth, PEG ratio .90, 1.40 brokers rec., EPS next 5 yr. 27%, 4 weeks of consolidation. Consensus earnings 1.27, but can they beat it?

Lazard Capital says consensus is too low especially with price increase in Xyrem. Their target is 87. Here's chart 6 months. What do you think?

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=jazz&insttype=&freq=1&show=True&time=7

----------------billy

Billy, I NEVER have insider info! I know you didn't mean that. I haven't found anything significant on the boards I follow. I find the SEC filings of 1/21/13; 12/12/12; 12/10/12; 11/12/12 and 9/17/12 significantly interesting for future catalyst opportunity. (Patent infringement suit? Generic competition? Positive Markham hearing on patent claims?) I know you have financial info, so won't go into that here. I suspect the price rise now may be a run-up to potential earnings surprise. (Lazard might just be right.) Good luck.

[billyjoe]

River, No I didn't mean "insider" in the usual way. I guess I meant inside smarts, knowledge through education and observation. I'd like to have a talk with my sleep disorder doctor to find out if JAZZ's narcolepsy drug is being prescribed more often as the number of baby boomers increases. Maybe a friendly pharmacist would be even better. These biotech stocks drive me crazy.

-------------billy

[tiedyed1]

Mdco?

Hi River;
I am wondering if you have any opinion on The Medicines Company, MDCO.

Their lock up period just ended and I hear of employees cashing in which is causing the dip today and considering an entry.

Any opinion is appreciated.
Thanks; -Adam
tiedyed1

[billyjoe]

tiedyed,

I don't have River's knowledge of medical stocks, but MDCO sure looks strong beating earnings and revenue estimates by quite a bit. The only explanation for this drop is either a negative outlook for the market as a whole or the fact that MDCO was up over 50% YTD even before the earnings report. Good eye, tiedyed !

---------------billy

[riverbabe]

Hi River;
I am wondering if you have any opinion on The Medicines Company, MDCO.

Their lock up period just ended and I hear of employees cashing in which is causing the dip today and considering an entry.

Any opinion is appreciated.
Thanks; -Adam
tiedyed1

I can't add anything to what billy said. A lot of insider selling this week. IBD seems to like it. Maybe look for a technical pullback to buy. Don't have any other info. Good luck.

[tiedyed1]

Billy & River, thanks for the opinions. I always appreciate them.

There are some employees cashing in after their lock up period (known 100% fact) and that is what I believe was Friday's dip. I like the entry for an addition to my longer look portfolio.

Thanks for your posts on this board. While I do not post much I am an avid and appreciative lurker

-Adam

[riverbabe]

Vrng

Billy, this one is for you. http://www.dilbert.com/

[billyjoe]

River, How did you get the sketches from the VRNG trial out of the courtroom?

----------------billy

[Deaddog]

River;
I’m sorry; I know I promised not to hassle you but curiosity got the best of me.

Are you still holding AMRN and VRNG?

They breaking down technically and are making new yearly lows. What’s the plan?

Don't see you posting much, I hope every thing is good in your world.

DD

[riverbabe]

River;
I’m sorry; I know I promised not to hassle you but curiosity got the best of me.

Are you still holding AMRN and VRNG?

They breaking down technically and are making new yearly lows. What’s the plan?

Don't see you posting much, I hope every thing is good in your world.

DD

Hello Dog. Sorry haven't answered sooner but suffering from a bit of computer-eye strain so haven't been posting or reading much. Patent & biotech plays are a different kind of play, sometimes requiring quick trading if a pop actually happens, sometimes investing with a lot of patience, till the big payday hits. They are speculative! AMRN & VRNG are good examples. They are breaking down technically right now, each for its own good reason.

In AMRN, because there are a lot of early unknowable unknowns re. the success of its go-it-alone commercialization of Vascepa in Feb, its potential NCE status, etc. It will be bought out either sooner or later. I waited 5 years for AZ to buy out MEDI (after it commercialized the nasal flu vaccine), with a huge payday for my grandkids' college fund. I'll give AMRN one more quarter at least for solid results but will bail if it doesn't look good enough.

In VRNG because of Judge Jackson's (aka JJ) snail's pace in ruling on the post trial motions v. GOOG. But VRNG v. MSFT are negotiating a settlement prior to another trial. News of that bumped up the pps this week alone. This one (VRNG) is going to be another big payday and long term hold, in between averaging down and day trading the blips. (That's what I'm doing now, with trepidation because don't want to get caught with too few shares on the big announcement days). For a good read from one of the sane guys on VRNG, http://seekingalpha.com/article/1309..._article_title. Also, I know this guy from vringo.freeforums.net which is the best VRNG board around.

So, while these are trades turned into investments right now, I can be very patient when I want to be.

In the meantime, am taking good profits on my retirement divi stocks (bigger cap gains than divis) and will buy back when the market finally dips. (And it will).

Thanks for asking, but "Don't cry for me, Vancouver..." Who wants to trade this crazy volatility right now anyway?

[riverbabe]

Thank you netprf

A big thankyou to netprf (a Vringo Starr) at vringo.freeforums.net

Market Maker Surveillance Report.
PAMT & VRNG, Winning Stocks With Lowest Price Friction For Thursday, March 28th 2013

http://www.buyins.net/releases/index.php?sym=VRNG&id=357573

http://www.buyins.net/tools/symbol_stats.php?sym=VRNG

BUYINS.NET / www.buyins.net, announced today its proprietary Market Maker Friction Factor Report for Thursday. Since October 2008 market makers are now required to be on the bid as much as they are on the offer and for like amounts of stock. This Fair Market Making Requirement is designed to prevent market makers from manipulating stock prices. On Thursday there were 3917 companies with "abnormal" market making, 3145 companies with positive Friction Factors and 2279 companies with negative Friction Factors. Here is a list of the top companies with the largest percentage gain per share Thursday and low price friction (bullish). This means that there was more buying than selling in the stocks and their stock prices rose faster with less Friction.
Parametric Sound Corp (NASDAQ:PAMT), Vringo Inc (AMEX:VRNG).

Market Maker Friction Factor is shown in the chart below:

Symbol Change Percent Buy Volume Buy %% Sell Volume Sell %% Net Volume Friction

PAMT $3.170 18.78% 438,252 54.56% 350,871 43.69% 87,381 276

VRNG $0.440 16.00% 3,479,357 39.47% 3,026,036 34.33% 453,321 10,303

Analysis of the Friction Factor chart above shows that each of thestocks mentioned above have high net buy volumes (buy volume, sell volume) and low price friction in their stocks. The Friction Factor displays how many more shares of buying than selling are required to move a stock higher by one cent or how many more shares of selling than buying moves a stock lower by 1 cent.

For example, the chart above shows PAMT with a dollar gain Thursday of $3.17000 and a Friction Factor of 276 shares. That means that it only took 276 more shares of buying than selling to move PAMT higher by one penny. The Market Makers are currently allowing the stock to rise quickly (low friction). The combination of low friction and positive market direction can drive prices higher much faster than normal.

To access Friction Factor, Naked Short Data and SqueezeTrigger Prices on all stocks please visit http://www.buyins.net .

Read more: http://vringo.freeforums.net/index.c...#ixzz2P1nYQzvT

[riverbabe]

Why

I haven't been trading very much for the last year. One of my reasons is that I have been deeply distrustful of the new market dynamics. Today, in my inbox, came an article by James Altucher that hit just about every nail on the head of how I've been feeling. So, if you're interested, read on.
PS, I took a 24% gain out of NEON a few weeks ago and am almost ready to get back in.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1384441-james-altucher-why-the-stock-market-is-a-sucker-s-game-right-now-and-what-stocks-i-own

[Deaddog]

I haven't been trading very much for the last year. One of my reasons is that I have been deeply distrustful of the new market dynamics. Today, in my inbox, came an article by James Altucher that hit just about every nail on the head of how I've been feeling. So, if you're interested, read on.
PS, I took a 24% gain out of NEON a few weeks ago and am almost ready to get back in.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1384...t-stocks-i-own

Gotta register to read the whole thing.
Too Bad!!!