I can be Huge too

[antioch6]

Looks like I was wrong on selling the Russell. Hate to see all my profit disappear but maybe there is more money out there than I thought. I can't believe housing stocks went up the way they did. It was almost obvious but it's still hard to believe when you see it in person.

I did my scan and am thinking both longs and shorts are working. Instead of trying to time the market, I should of just held Sony and Grbk while holding Hyfm short. The market is sort of higher but not crazy high. The P/e ratio is high but earnings haven't gotten weaker. Everyone was saying earnings would be weaker by the end of this year, and I was almost counting on it besides housing. I can't deny there is a lot of money out there, but am unsure about my ability to find the stocks it might go into. Stocks don't make much practical sense to me anymore, but they are there and I'll play the game. I started this thread picking a great stock and saying I wouldn't time the market, but some lessons from my dad's sources are stuck on me like canslim, cutting losses, waiting for a market direction, and watching the charts like the 50 day and the 200 day. Everything looks positive to me going out 20 years, but it's always looked like this since the world is always a happy and positive place in my mind.

I think I'll start over today like I always do and start picking stocks. Running my screen and updating my holdings once a month make sense. The biggest problem for me has been deciding how much to buy, and waiting for an inevitable bear market. Why does Mr.Market wait for a large rally to start buying? Why doesn't he just buy and hold if the market is going higher over the long run? Maybe he does but in other parts of his portfolio. I've never been so disappointed waiting for a bear market. First it was the debt and the european crisis, then it was china and the housing market. I should of bought during the corona virus but I was away. Then trying to decided if it was too late back in 2020 in August and December. It seems no matter how hard I try, it always looks too late to buy stocks if you look back. 2021 I was trying to buy in January and July. I was away at the start of 2022, But it was a good trading year. 2023 was almost good. I bought a new Car with my profits from last year, but lost the rest of my gains trading futures. I guess I could sell my car, but then there would of been no point in trading in the first place. The problem is I don't have much money left to trade, so I will have to start over and watch my losses again. My dad was moved to an assisted living facility that costs $5,000 a month, so he is not giving me any money anymore. I'm eating good and driving around in my Jeep, but I miss trading bigger amounts of money.

So, my initial feelings are kind of confusion. All my good long picks went up alot, and my good short picks went down alot. What could possibly be left to happen? Starting over, here are the stocks on my screen:

Nothing. I couldn't find one single stock that was growing at a good value. Does this mean it's time to switch and look for stocks to sell? I don't know. I wouldn't mind sitting out the next 6 months and seeing what happens. I feel satisfied with watching Hyfm fall from 5.81 to $1.00. Doing the short screen was too much work and I just ate some spaghetti and had a brownie.

[jiesen]

I sold Sony and Grbk when my market timing service went a sell. Wish I had held. I'm selling the russell 2000 now and playing snake.io

I like slither.io better... they don't surround the board with ads on that one. I have to use Firefox to play it, though. It doesn't play well with Chrome.

[antioch6]

I sold Sony and Grbk when my market timing service went a sell. Wish I had held. I'm selling the russell 2000 now and playing snake.io

[antioch6]

I sold Hyfm today, to balance out the buys. Got an average price of 2.01. My guess is this thing will go to zero or at least $1.00 this year. Most of the last move was a short squeeze attempt. I feel like the only thing holding this market up is manipulation to suck people in. I've been fooled twice now, and it looks like that's the way it's gunna be from now on. So I'm trying the other side, and selling some. I wanted to sell GRPN CVNA and COIN, but couldn't get shares.

I forgot about my market timing service. If it goes to a sell, I'll sell Sony and Greenbrick.

[jiesen]

I bought Sony and Grbk. Leaving them there for a year.

Good luck with the GRBK! Looks like a pretty good growth play, from the revenue numbers...

[antioch6]

I bought Sony and Grbk. Leaving them there for a year.

[jiesen]

Good thing we have some housing stocks, eh?

[antioch6]

So I got stopped out and thought about buying. The housing stocks look good; and so does steel. I didn't buy until now because I can't see this move going higher without momentum. There is momentum now, so I'm buying Russell 2000 futures until they reverse back below 1900.

[antioch6]

Wow, I reversed to Buy as we were heading higher, only to stop out and reverse back to a sell. I'm widening my stop back to the high of the day and crossing my fingers.

[antioch6]

Things like on the verge of breaking down. The last month there's been a up move from here everytime. So this is it. Could we go sideways until the Fed meeting? I'm betting we go back to the lows with a tight stop.

[antioch6]

Wow, so I was selling the Russell 2000 and it was down. I couldn't believe it would move back higher a fourth day after I tried selling. Now things are going higher, but this can't last forever. I've been planning to wait until the end of January and sell again. This was a nice move but it was light holiday trading and we are at resistance. Technically we are at a point of breakout, but the only thing I can imagine that will take us past here is a Fed announcing a rate cut and more rate cuts going forward. Along with high p/e ratios, the lack of a Fed stimulus is going to prevent stocks from going higher mostly. I also don't think anyone is left to buy out there, as many investors are skeptical from the fall in 2022. There is no doubt in my mind 2021 was the psychological high where people thought the market was going up forever. Now that's gone and so are the chances to bring that emotion back. It takes time because everyone is sitting with losses, and they aren't going to send their money out again.

I sold HYfm at 1.7901. I'll use today's highs in the Russell 2000 or the recent highs in hyfm as a stop.

[antioch6]

I sold again yesterday, and couldn't believe the market was going higher - three days in a row after early selling; but it went higher and I bought during the day. I sold at the end, even though I'm feeling greedy enough to buy Apple, Sony, Greenbrick. When I looked for something to sell, I found Colgate-Palmolive. These products are inferior and they won't have any market in the future. The p/e ratio is over 30, earnings are flat, and the stock is trending lower on all time frames.

I also have to say the market looks tempting here on an emotional basis. The p/e is 20, so sort of high. The earnings are good, but they probably will decrease in a recession later this year. Maybe the momentum is not good. We have been sideways the past 6 months, and everyone is getting excited now to buy before any breakouts and further momentum. This has been hard for me, as there is no reason to buy besides the same reasons that there were since the beginning of the move. Sentiment was negative, we were on low volume holiday trading going sideways, and suddenly there was some momentum. Nothing else changed, so we are still going higher. Some people sold at the top of the move because we were at the highs of November and December. The story is the same, but the sentiment is not as bad. So we are trading sentiment - how far can it swing to the extreme? Who is left to buy, and how risky are they willing to go? Most people I know were buying in June and October, and were fearful of everything going lower. Now who is buying? Does anyone know? Where is this money coming from?

I follow a few newsletters and money managers. They are recommending to buy here but they are usually wrong at key times. Maybe we will go higher until some people return that were in cash and waiting for the end of the bear market. I have a hard time buying now, because I feel like someone is after my buying; everytime I go to buy, the market falls 1 or 2%. Then when I sell, it goes back up and higher where it looks good to buy on strength again. So I'm sticking with index futures, where I can act quickly and decide if the short term momentum is higher or lower. I'm using stocks as a gauge to where the indices are going. Like looking back, STLD has been a great buy everytime my market service has been on Buy. So buying is working if you are in the right stocks. Selling isn't working because the stocks down the most, losing the most money, are going up the most on Fed-pivot buying. What might work, is selling the stocks going sideways with high p/e ratios and flat earnings. So there is still hope for my timing strategy. I might of only got frustrated with it because it looked so obvious the trend was up before they switched. Maybe I should of tried, but the only things on my screen were failed breakouts. Earnings are having the most effect on stock prices, so I shouldn't hang myself over a few days of losses.

Currently I am selling Russell 2k futures. I have a stop loss just above the highs of today. I don't want to buy the housing stocks, as I don't consider their earnings steady. STLD looks high now, which is sad because it was really the only perfect stock. Their earnings are cyclical too, so other than that, there is Sony. They are going to develop cars and video games that will probably be the best in the world. The p/e is not high, but not low. The earnings are growing steadily, but I think it will take a long time for the big earnings to come in. Uri is a nice hot stock. I believe in the construction theme, and they make alot of money renting out equipment in the area. It was up 10% yesterday, so again it all depends on the market and what kind of people are going to buy. These companies should continue to outperform, and I have my timing service, so it comes down to a question of selling early, or staying with the trend and selling on weakness. I've always made more money selling early, but that means there's nothing to do.

So it's time to start over. I've just come back to the market, and things look good. Earnings are heading lower, and p/e ratios are sort of high. We're on momentum, so that should be the trick to trade this market. In the back of my head, the selling could start any moment. Maybe what we saw at the end of the day is the start of something more significant. I've been a stubborn market trader since 2015, thinking we are going to see a large crash from the debt of 2008 still defaulting. But what could cause this? We haven't seen anything besides the corona virus and the fed raising interest rates. Maybe inflation will force the fed to let the economy go and reset the debt.

Anyways, I'm keeping my dad's money in cash until that happens, and I'm trying to figure out how to enjoy my time. It seems almost I don't want to say random but a trick for how the market has been rising. Looking back, I want to own the best stocks and feel good about the gains I've waited to earn. More realistically, I make the most money from short term trading, picking spots and using stop losses. I don't need the money, but it feels good to place trades and play the game. The one thing I've learned that I could say goes for everyone, is manage your risk. It all comes down to how much leverage you have if you're out for money. If you're not out for money, lower your risk. And if you're bored, limit your losses to a $ amount, like going to the casino.

[antioch6]

So I sold qqq because the sentiment feels the same as the last time it fell. There are breakouts but no one is left to buy. The only thing that could save this market is reckless buying; and we are on the verge of careless. So I'm monitoring the momentum and will decide to jump in with the buying or sell because the market is weak.

[antioch6]

The only explanation i have for this os the government is maskingevär the market go higher. The have unlimited funds bott was, so ill stick with the trend. Market is going up, so im buying. Bought qqq and sold grbk.

[antioch6]

My trading feels all over the place. The market was up when I bought, and down when I sold. I was waiting for my timing service to confirm the market was going up. I waited all day and decided at the end to buy again. Covered my nasdaq futures contract and bought one. I also decided Grbk is the strongest stock in the market, and went in at 29.23. This is definitely a stock pickers' market, as the housing stocks are getting pumped along with the nasdaq. The question is when will people stop buying. I planned on using my timing service for sells, but maybe it is faster and more profitable to just time the individual stocks themselves and decide if the trend is up or down.