I can be Huge too

[Louetta]

...... big snip ......

My plan is to trade half of PATH and keep the other half as a long term investment. If we start breaking below lows and panic selling begins, I'll sell half.

I have some LEAPS (calls, Jan. 2025) in PATH. Might roll them further out when the new series come out on (I think it's) the 12th. 11th, actually, a Monday of course.

[antioch6]

I closed my TREE sell and opened buy PATH. This stock caught my attention on the front page of news today, and I've heard Cathie Wood talking about it. It seems like a cool stock that can make money and be higher higher in a year from now. I know louetta liked the momentum in the market last week and the stability after Federal Reserve day. I would take it one step further, and say the market has been strong from October to January, and we've been sideways since. Now the Fed is almost done with rate increases, and it looks like we might have a recession. Well, to me the long term is clear - we are going higher. My friend with the $3 million dollars is scared of a recession, but he says it's hard to time it. I have to say it is almost impossible to convince him to buy stock. Stocks are already down big from August, and most stocks are still near their October - November prices. I don't think the market is high (too high); just because a.i.and technology are higher doesn't mean the market will crash on something that isn't here yet. And by now everyone knows the government is going to send more money when the recession starts, so why sell before a recession, unless you are only trying to take advantage of other people?

My plan is to trade half of PATH and keep the other half as a long term investment. If we start breaking below lows and panic selling begins, I'll sell half.

[antioch6]

I'm looking for a solid buy to balance out my risk. Everything I've found is not incredibly strong, but instead more short term = oriented and risky. I'll keep looking; hopefully I'll find one before the end of the day.

[antioch6]

i'm looking for the perfect short. I think I know what's happening.

i tried selling BYND but the charge to borrow was 25%+. I kept down the list and I'm selling TREE at 17.38. My thinking is people might not be able to pay off their loans, and this would force TREE to take huge losses. They are already losing money and have 40% of their value in debt. Their price is breaking below 17.60 lows from December and May. I'm waiting for risk buyers to enter and start buying s&p, nasdaq, and stuff like BYND or TREE. Besides that, I expect prices to continue steadily falling.

[jiesen]

URA is a good one, and I've been holding this for a while now, for exposure to Uranium if and when it explodes like a bomb!

[antioch6]

Well, I decided to keep this thread going. There was really no reason to close it.

I think we are in a stock picker's market, meaning good stocks will go up, and bad stocks will go down. I get these feelings from watching bad stocks in my other thread go up last week, then fall back down this week. The ideal strategy here is selling one company and buying another.

At the moment we are in two different markets, with weak companies losing in August and strong companies moving sideways. These weak companies are at support, so they could crash here but they could also hold and have large gains from short-covering or just risky buyers. On the stronger side, good companies might see large gains as risky buyers enter. So with weak companies at support and strong companies going flat, the momentum is down. The contrary point is these risky buyers usually start buying when prices are down, like we saw last week. The regional banks were starting to fall on low volume, then buyers came in and squeezed the stocks higher for a week. They did the same in housing stocks. So as they move around every couple weeks, they have a chance to hit an actual strong, risky company. These are the companies I want to buy now, as they're flat.

On the other side, I want to trade the weak companies as they fall below support. I want the companies I know are bad and will go much lower to eventual bankruptcy months and years into the future.

Instead of screens for the week, i'm moving to active screens for the day. Here is the screen for the day:

It looks like I only got one stock for today and it was a uranium stock. I looked more into it and I found Uranium and Nuclear ETFs are developing momentum. These might be the risky buyers looking for something hot. The charts look just like the Japanese hedged etf. I looked into the top holdings, and I feel it is a good representation of Japan as a whole. I included the 3 etfs in the screen. URA NLR DXJ

Here is the sell screen for the day:

BIG AAP BYND FL DG TREE

So most of these sells are at support and so far they're holding. My emotions are telling me the buyers will save these weak stocks for the short term, and they will buy these uranium and japan areas with momentum. I feel greedy wanting to buy the screen, and I also feel scared enough to not do anything. With these ideas in mind, I think I'll play the momentum and if support breaks and momentum ends, I'll switch to sell. I did this back in January and the momentum died back then. Somehow, nuclear energy and japan value stocks sound more exciting than u.s. homebuilders. I guess you need real excitement and something new to create momentum.

[antioch6]

I knew there was no reason to buy the market. The ideas popping up in my scan/screen weren't that good, and suddenly there were tons of good sells showing up. I've been watching while daytrading some futures and got curious how a portfolio full of both the buys and sells would do. The results for the buys were good; Asc and Stng went up while Tkc was sidways. I checked the sells and they were good too; all were down.

I bought some stock screening software and tested it out; owning the top buys and selling the top sells. Well, the results for the first week are in and the numbers are outstanding. Everyday was a winning day 0.10% - 0.40% between. That averages to around 50% a year. The results are so good I'm going to post updates and expect something good to happen. I'm gunna close this thread, and start a new one to discuss the top buys and sells.

[antioch6]

If this is the big bear market I've been waiting for the past 4 years, I'll have plenty of opportunities.

Here is the screen for the week:

There were no stocks.

Here is the short screen for the week:

Pton W Snap Roku Shop Dash Coin Mtch Zm Ua Meta Pins Run Baba

Now that the market is falling, I can look for the weakest charts with the greatest market cap, and the most negative income. Pton has a useless product. W is the weakest. Snap is useless. Roku is a bad product. Shop isn't fun anymore. Dash might do good. Coin is making less money. Mtch might do good. I like Zm. Ua is not good. Meta is useless. Pins is a waste of time. Run might get help from the government. Baba is not good.

Without a government program, with negative earnings, and negative momentum, the market looks like it will keep falling. These stocks will fall worse so I will be shorting some in the next few days.

I'm short Dash. Maybe I'll get off margin and spread the risk. Food delivery sounds like a great idea for the future. W has more debt. I've been thinking about shorting it for a few days. Their earnings are more negative. The momentum is more negative. I've hesitated because buyers might send it up on hope. I've also needed to learn more about the company. Buyers could stop me out. It looks like most of them are done, and the market is genuinely weak. Dash is going down too. Maybe I shouldn't do anything.

So I was reading back on some posts and found I was buying near the lows back on October 20th. I was still crazy bearish on the 15th. There was nothing with earnings back then until the housing stocks started showing up in January. The point is, I was thinking now what should I of bought then.

I saw Jiesen went with VTI. I definitely should of just bought Berkshire Hathaway on the day of the low. I've been considering it since January of 2021, but have been nervous about P/e ratios and a bear market. Where are we now? P/e ratios are back high, and earnings are kind of weak overall. There is no great stock we can say is the next great buy like an Apple or Nvidia going forward. I'm saying starting today as they are already up alot. Momentum is still positive but starting to slow down on the Nasdaq and higher spec names like Tesla.

Housing still looks good but how can we time the top in housing? It's been good for the past 7 months. The stocks are up 50%-100%. My market timing service has been on a buy signal since May 27th. I was just thinking now might be a good time to short some companies that were weak back in October. These are almost all down 4%+ today, so there is some momentum picking up on the downside. Particularly DASH looked good since it had a little climax top after several months of steady gains.

The trick questions in my head is: should I try shorting the names that have had big gains, or short the ones that haven't even managed a rally. They both seem to make sense as long as the market is showing a top maybe on the weaker side of companies; a top in the weaker side of earnings is what I want to say.

So I guess I'm just starting to get greedy seeing all these stocks go to big losses today. I would just avoid the companies with the best earnings from my list. The best from today, I'd say UA, DASH, META, MTCH. That leaves 10 shortable names PTON W SNAP ROKU SHOP COIN ZM PINS RUN and BABA. As I look closer, I can eliminate more earnings and positive things like momentum or a better brand. This leaves me with PTON, SNAP, COIN, ZM, PINS, RUN. I think these are shortable here with a 10% stop on each of them. This could balance out any buying though I'm pressed to find anything besides housing stocks on my screen.

[antioch6]

I've been searching for the perfect list to buy from, but haven't posted anything because I'm a little uncomfortable where the market is. Today the list performed so good in a down market, I feel like I have to post it. If I remember, these compaies have growing earnings and sales, a reasonable p/e ratio, and price momentum stronger than the average company.

AESI, ALSN, BLX, CMI, DE, DXPE, FOR, HAYN, HCCI, HGV, KE, KNSA, KOP, MCHP, MRC, NEX, SANM, TOL, URI.

I meant to use the list as a dump, but didn't think much farther than that.

[antioch6]

With the strong market today, I got a top 3. The main reason I didn't want to keep buying this market is because it feels like a week rally short term. We saw a bad down day yesterday and now the market is back to looking strong today. So the top 3 are : Asc, Stng, Tkc.

I still think I'll get a better opportunity to buy in the next year or so, but the market looks strong again. The question is, should I start buying 3 at a time, or should I buy the top 9 from the past 3 weeks, or should I wait and watch this market go higher? I think I'll take this to the extremes and start over again with the top 3 for this week. The other 6 look good except ENIC, which dropped 10% on a moderate earnings miss. It wasn't that bad, and it has a 10% dividend to recover the loss, and a p/e of only 3. So I guess I could buy all 9 but I won't.

[mrmarket]

I liked ENIC for the dividend, by the way

[antioch6]

So I just can't hold for more than a few days. I sold all my positions as I don't see any other reason for the market to go higher from here. Everyone was buying last September and October because they thought the Fed was going to stimulate sometime this year. Well now a recession is coming and the Fed will probably have to stimulate before it gets bad. But everyone already bought last year. Who is left to buy? The news is all the same. So I am pulling out while the market is good. There's got to be another opportunity over the next year or two.

[antioch6]

I have a top 3 for this week: ARCT, PRIM, and GRVY. The top 3 from last week were ESTE, HCC, and ENIC. So i will give in this week and buy the top 3 from last week, and the top 3 from this week. I'll give the results when they get sold in 6 weeks.

[mrmarket]

I like ENIC

[antioch6]

I sold all my stocks today. It's hard for me to hold more than a day. After daytrading everyday, stocks are like watching paint dry. The only way I can think to hold longer is leave my companies there until the end of the year, then revisit them at that time. I said I wouldn't time the market, and I've looked for years to find how to get in without market risk. I guess there is just no way to avoid market downturns without trading on sentiment and a yearly timeframe.

I did my screen again, and all that came out were oils and banks. I'm desperate to get in, but there is nothing to buy. GRVY was showing up, but their video games aren't good and they trade kind of soft on volume. Should I just give in and buy banks and oils? My market timing service is on a buy signal because of the momentum. I have another market timing letter that is on a buy that works a little slower. How can I possibly buy banks? Locking my money up for 5 months in bank stocks does sound kind of classic. Then again, it's another week, so maybe I'll pick another 3 stocks.

Last week my top 3 were ENIC, ESTE, and HCC. This week I can only find more oil stocks. On the other hand, housing stocks have the best earnings. I have to state I think their massive rally is probably near an end, as the houses are being made and growth slows. The stocks all went from p/e's of 3-5 to 8-9, so they are no longer undervalued, and this doesn't include a possible setback of slowing houses. I mean they could get overvalued, and maybe go to p/e's of 10-12. I just don't see any difference in buying them week to week as the price goes higher.

So maybe it's finally time to sit out for a while. I've got my job at walmart starting tomorrow, so... maybe I'll find the next big stock while working