Karels Investopedia Portfolio

[Karel]

The week before last nothing much happened in my portfolio. This week something happened. AAOI lost quite a bit, 20% on Friday alone, and NVDA racked up another 5+% score.

The bookkeeping for the week ending Friday 10-13: my portfolio got hit by the AAOI trouble and stands at +15.8%, still beating SPY at +13.9% and IWM at +10.7% (+0.3%). QQQ is again safely in the lead at +21.3%

The stock with the earliest deadline (10-21) is AAOI. It needs to reach 101.47 to stay in. It stands at 47.01, a loss of 37% since it was bought. I don’t see it coming back the next 2 weeks.

As I said above, NVDA cleared its next 5% target with a lot of margin. Its new target is 204.32, almost double my buy price in this portfolio.

That’s all.

[Karel]

Did something happen this week in my portfolio? Yes, to wit:

The bookkeeping for the week ending Friday 10-20: my portfolio got lifted up by the general positive sentiment, even when AAOI dropped further. The portfolio is now +19.8% (+3.5% for the week), beating SPY at +14.9% (+0.9%) and IWM at +11.1% (+0.4%). QQQ is still in the lead at +21.6% (+0.3%)

The stock with the earliest deadline (10-21) is AAOI. It gets another week, as yesterday was not a trading day. It needs to reach 101.47 to stay in. It stands at 41.47, a loss of 45% since it was bought. Next weekend I will need to pick a replacement.

3 stocks cleared their next 5% target: LRCX (new target 215.61), CAI (new target 39.12), MU (new target 43.5.

That’s all.

[Karel]

So AAOI got sold today at 40.18, which means a loss of -46.4%. The average closed position is negative again at -4.9% for an average holding period of 5 months. It was replaced with MBUU, bought @ 31.50, first 5% step @ 33.08.

The bookkeeping for the week ending Friday 10-27: my portfolio is now +20.3% (+0.4% for the week), beating SPY at +15.1% (+0.2%) and IWM at +11.0% (-0.1%). QQQ has widened its lead a bit: +23.7% (+1.7%)

The next stock with the earliest deadline (November 12) is WLDN. WLDN needs to reach 36.45 to stay in. It stands at 29.15, a loss of 9% since it was bought.

No stocks cleared their next 5% target.

That’s all.

[Karel]

The bookkeeping for the week ending Friday 11-3: my portfolio lost a bit this week and is at +19.5% (+0.7% for the week), SPY is +15.5% (+0.3%) and IWM +10.1% (-0.8%). QQQ is trucking on: +25.3% (+1.3%)

The next stock with the earliest deadline (November 12) is WLDN. WLDN needs to reach 36.45 to stay in. It stands at 26.12, a loss of 16% since it was bought.

Three stocks cleared their next 5% target: NVDA (new target 219.12), ANET (211,56) and MU (45,90)

That’s all.

[Karel]

Last Monday, November 20, WLDN got sold at 25.14, which means a loss of -19.1%. The average closed position is negative at -7.2% for an average holding period of 5.5 months. It was replaced with CTRL, bought @ 33.48, first 5% step @ 35.23.

The bookkeeping for the week ending Friday 11-24: my portfolio is now +23.5%, beating SPY (16.3%) and IWM (11.9%). QQQ is still in the lead at +27.8%.

The next stock with the earliest deadline (December 29) is FOXF. FOXF needs to reach 45.26 to stay in. It stands at 38.05, a gain of 14.8% since it was bought.

Several stocks cleared their next 5% target, some more than once. One week ago ANET, next target 245.51, and 3 stocks this week: LRCX (new target 227.67), MU (52,16) and CTRL (37,55)


That’s all.

[Karel]

2017 went out on a whimper. My fund closed at a gain of 13.1%, a shade better than IWM (+13%), but SPY (+19.2%) and QQQ (+27.4) handily beat it. Let’s just say: a new year, with new opportunities.

Today FOXF got sold at 39.30, or a gain of 18.6% in a bit over 7 months. The average closed position is still negative at -3.6% for an average holding period of 5.7 months. FOXF was replaced with CNC, bought @ 105.40, first 5% step @ 110.67.

The bookkeeping for the week ending Friday 1/5: my portfolio is +4.7% for the (new) year, beating IWM (1.5%), SPY (2.4%) and QQQ 4.0%. A nice start.

The next stock with the earliest deadline (February 20) is CAI. It needs to reach 39.12 to stay in. It stands at 28.88, a whisker above its buy price.

No stocks cleared their next 5% target in December.


That’s all.

[Louetta]

Hope you're OK, my man. Sounds like tough weather over there. Made the news in the USA.

[Karel]

Hope you're OK, my man. Sounds like tough weather over there. Made the news in the USA.

Thank you, Louetta. I am well. I stayed at home and didn’t follow the news, so the storm largely passed me by. It was tough, but public life was back to normal already yesterday.

[Karel]

Today, January 31, CAI got sold at 29.03, a gain of 1.5%. Wow. The average closed position is still negative at -2.9% for an average holding period of almost 6 months. It was replaced with LGIH, bought @ 68.84, first 5% step @ 72.28.

The bookkeeping for the week ending Friday 1-26: my portfolio is now +11.3%, beating IWM (+4.7%), SPY (+7.4%) and QQQ (+9.7%).

There are 3 stocks with a deadline on 2-25: LRCX, MU and CTRL. I will trade one stock maximum each week, so I have time to consider what I will do when they cross that line together.

Several stocks cleared their next 5% target: one week ago CNC, next target 116.20, and 3 stocks this week: NVDA (new target 255.50), ANET (297.6 and MBUU (34.89)


That’s all.

[Louetta]

Hey, Karel, Dutch chicks are kicking butt in speedskating. Swept the 3000!

[Karel]

They did! And a nice 1500m too. With Wüst winning her 4th gold individual gold medal in four Olympic games!

[Karel]

My life is in a bit of a flux right now. Nothing bad, quite the contrary, but my portfolio is suffering. Her is an update:

As of 3-23, my portfolio is up 8.9% YTD, beating SPY (+2.2%), IWM (+3.7%) and QQQ (+7.6%). Well, it isn’t suffering too much, apparently. Perhaps I should stay away even more. 4 stocks have made new 5% or more higher highs (5HH) in the meantime: NVDA, ANET, MU and MBUU. The other 4 stocks haven’t made a new 5HH and haven’t done so for over 3 months, so they are due for replacement. They are LRCX, FOXF, CAI and CTRL. I will replace them one by one; oldest first. I am busy this week and the next, because of Easter, so that will have to wait.

That is all

[Karel]

Oops, for my last post I checked the one place that I had not yet updated with the latest replacements. Only LRCX and CTRL were up for replacement, the other two already were gone. Anyway, when I ran the screens too few stocks came up for a new round, so I will just report the result at the close of last week, Friday 6. My portfolio is still up for the year, at +5.4%, and it still beats QQQ (+0.9%), IWM (-0.8%) and SPY (-1.7%).

And LGIH hit the 5% barrier and now has a target of 76.76.

That is all

[Karel]

The previous post was almost a year ago. In the meantime, a lot of things have happened on a personal level and I just couldn’t get my head wrapped around my stocks. And I got sidetracked by mining for alt coins. I even made a little profit. But now I have returned to my stocks, as mining promises to be unprofitable for the time being, and I had to decide what to do with my old, old stocks. I could have had them all marked for replacement, but instead I looked at the most recent low (about December 21, 201 and used those prices as new reference prices. This means that all stocks have done really well since 12/21 and there is no hurry to replace any stocks. Replacements will be due in April at the earliest.

How did the neglected portfolio do? Curently it stands at +16% since January 2017, about 7.3% annually. It could have been worse.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

With the reset the portfolio gets a new baseline, for the year at least. The value of the portfolio as of Friday, March 1 is 1,153,012. SPY, QQQ and IWM get a reset. The portfolio currently holds (Ticker, Value, (Step, Deadline)):

NVDA 156.45 (164.78, 4-1
LRCX 176.75 (184.07, 5-
ANET 286.54 (300.87, 6-1)*
MU 41.58 (41.99, 5-15)
MBUU 46.46 (46.67, 5-
CTRL 17.92 (21.02, 4-11)
CNC 61.34 (66.48, 4-1
LGIH 68.84 (72.28, 6-1)*

* ANET and LGIH reached their step value last Friday. When a stock reaches its step value, it gets a new step value (current value + 5%) and a new deadline (3 months away). When a stock doesn’t reach its step value before the deadline, it will get replaced.