Technical Trades Anyone

[BlueWolf]

Anybody interested in shorter to mid term swing plays based on charting technicals?

[BlueWolf]

Ttd

I should have posted this sooner, but it may still be valid for an entry. Take a look at TTD. It did a gap fill then overextended and reversed yesterday (that was the buy signal). Still looks like an island bottom to me. There is some resistance above, especially at 58, but that’s still enough to give a nice 10% to 15% bounce. It was worth a play and might still be with a trailing stop above 10% with a conservative stop below today’s low and a more liberal stop somewhere around 45 (this makes risk/reward closer to 1:1). If you’re super conservative, you could sit it out and take the chance that this will fill today’s gap and look for an entry then (I always wait for a reversal before entering). No doubt yesterday was the time to enter, but the gap up today made the possibility of a sustained reversal look even better so I thought I’d post it for what it’s worth. I’d post the chart if I could figure out how to upload a picture from iOS. If these kinds of trades interest you, let me know, and I will share more ideas. I am watching or have entered several now.

[Louetta]

I should have posted this sooner, but it may still be valid for an entry. Take a look at TTD. It did a gap fill then overextended and reversed yesterday (that was the buy signal). Still looks like an island bottom to me. There is some resistance above, especially at 58, but that’s still enough to give a nice 10% to 15% bounce. It was worth a play and might still be with a trailing stop above 10% with a conservative stop below today’s low and a more liberal stop somewhere around 45 (this makes risk/reward closer to 1:1). If you’re super conservative, you could sit it out and take the chance that this will fill today’s gap and look for an entry then (I always wait for a reversal before entering). No doubt yesterday was the time to enter, but the gap up today made the possibility of a sustained reversal look even better so I thought I’d post it for what it’s worth. I’d post the chart if I could figure out how to upload a picture from iOS. If these kinds of trades interest you, let me know, and I will share more ideas. I am watching or have entered several now.

Sounds interesting, like to see more. Nice to see original work.

[BlueWolf]

Thanks. I wouldn’t enter it now. It did fill Thursday’s gap, as I suspected it might. If it reverses from here, however, I think it’s a good entry. You could stop out just under Wednesday’s low for a good risk/reward ratio (about 4:1 with a conservative $56 target). It’s also cheap enough to where you could hedge it with some covered calls or a put. Just an idea for technical traders. Also, the financial outlook going forward is not bad, or I wouldn’t trade it long. I’m hesitant to see it as a long term hold until it clears out the overhead resistance around 58 to 60. The nice thing about an entry here, however, is that you could be sitting on a 15% gain as it heads into resistence, giving you a cushion if you do want to chance a longer term hold. Their last quarter and guidance were very good. Gotta wait for the reversal confirmation now, though. I love these kinds of setups when they happen.

[Louetta]

Good thorough analysis.

[sekto]

Arriving a bit late to this one... Looks like it's retraced back to the price range before the gap up, closing at 47.68 on Friday - How does that change the play here?

[BlueWolf]

This is looking like an entry here. You could wait for the bar to finish today to make sure it is signaling a reversal, but an aggressive trader could enter now especially given that it gapped up at the open today. You could stop below the prior pivot around 45.77 (always give some room), or, if you are more patient and willing to take a lower risk/reward, you could stop below the Feb pivot at 40.7.

[BlueWolf]

I have another one I’m watching here, ICPT. It’s a pharmaceutical, so technical training is always more risky because they are so news driven. What interests me is the huge buying that went on two days ago and the fact that it looks like it’s starting to base sideways near the high of that big bar up. I think I’m going to watch it to see if it bases a little more, but there’s very little resistance above this so it could pop suddenly if there’s another wave of buying.

[BlueWolf]

Ooh. Bearish engulfing bar developing on ICPT. Definitely a warning to sit on the sidelines for now.

[BlueWolf]

It was a little aggressive, but I took a 1/2 position in ICPT this morning. The bearish engulfing bar from yesterday gave me pause, but the gap up today was a good sign and the spread on this thing is huge, so you have to be a little careful when interpreting the close. If it moves in my favor, I may add another 1/2 position. If it break below the base, I’m out. This market is very whippy and news driven. That’s why it’s important to be disciplined on technical trades.

[Louetta]

Good stuff. Stop me if I'm becoming redundant.

[BlueWolf]

Good stuff. Stop me if I'm becoming redundant.

Thank you, Louetta. The way my life has been going the last several years, I doubt that nice comments will ever become redundant.

[BlueWolf]

Well, yesterday I was feeling good about my ICPT entry, but it retraced today. I think it’s still basing sideways, but I also still think it will break out. In any event, I’m glad I took a half position because I’m notoriously impatient about my swing trades. At least I’ve got a good tight area around which to put a stop (below Friday’s low of 68.5). I won’t trust it if it break that sideways band by much. TTD is doing better today. Gotta keep that momentum going, though.

[BlueWolf]

If you are not already in it, one of Mr. Market’s picks, NVR, is worth watching here. I like the way NVR is consolidating sideways. Since early February, it’s been trading in a range between about 3250 and 2800. The nice thing about trading range bound stocks, is that it’s fairly obvious where you want to put your stop. That makes the risk reward easy to determine. Let’s say I decided buy here around 3100 (BTW, I would never buy here because a bearish engulfing bar is forming, although you always need to wait until the end of day when you’re looking at a daily chart). A reasonable target would be a gap fill around 3570. Hence the risk reward would be 3570-3100/3100-2800 or about 1.6:1. Not the greatest risk reward, to be honest. If you traded that risk reward, you need to ensure that slightly more than two out of every three trades go your way. The way to play range bound stocks, is to try and get an entry near the bottom of the range, i.e. closer to 2800. Let’s say you got an entry around 2850. Now your RR is 14:1, i.e. you only have to be right on about one out of 15 trades to basically breakeven. OK, but here’s the rub. This stock looks like it is now basing sideways. It could retrace back to 2800 or thereabouts, but it could also just continue basing sideways and then break out to the upside. This basing started around April 5. If you base your play on that, the stop would be below 3075. Using the same target, if you bought at the top of the base, 3224, your RR is about 2.3:1. If you buy near the bottom of the base, say 3100, the RR becomes 18.8:1. So what’s the play? Here’s the way I would play it. I would wait for a bounce off the bottom of the base and then buy on a green bar, i.e. a reversal, coming off that bottom. If it does rise all the way to 3570, you can always sell off some of the position and hold the rest hoping for the 15% gain that Mr. market is so good at finding. His target is 4036.

Hope you don’t mind the long winded post, but I enjoy sharing my thoughts on trades. Years ago I was a fairly active day trader, something I was forced into because of my health. I didn’t have a lot of capital to invest though, so it was hard to generate sufficient revenue. To make a long story short, I went back into the software business working out of my home and did very well. Now I am semi retired and starting to get back into trading. I kind of prefer swing trading and long-term holds these days. I hope these analyses help and give you some ideas. Can’t promise how long I’ll be posting, but for now, I’m happy to share. Of course, if all my trades go against me, I won’t be as inclined to share. 🙂 good luck in your trading adventures.

P.S. I love Mr. Market’s picks. His system is top notch. The only thing I do differently sometimes is wait for an entry if I don’t think the technicals look good at the time he makes a recommendation. I’ve missed out on a couple of his trades because of that, but I am cautious with my capital, so I gotta be me.

[tiedyed1]

BlueWolf; I am chiming in to reiterate how much I appreciate you sharing your technical take and knowledge. For me your recent posts have added a fresh additional dimension to the community here that I value and am enjoying.

Your NVR post supports the much less technical plays i have been enjoying with NVR. (I have had a few NVR trades over the past few months and when it dips to the 2900 level (setting alerts <3000 as it can move fast) I have been buying as I am confident in the rebound back to the 3100-3200. I thank Mr. Market for the pick as it is indeed top notch; and while I usually buy and hold Mr. Market picks, NVR has been range bound and I have been enjoying trading that range.

Keep up the great technical work. It is truly appreciated by many here.
-Adam
Old Hippy & Mortgage Pro