Tweet
Thank you tiedyed1.
-
-
-
-
Well here’s an example of waiting for a confirmation bar. NVR broke it’s sideways consolidation today, not to mention the bearish engulfing bar yesterday. No entry here. That sideways base is broken. Just have to wait and see what it does from here. Will it drop back to the bottom of the Feb trading range? Maybe. Once again, we’d have to wait for a reversal bar confirmation before entering. If it breaks that trading range there is literally no support beneath it, and if you’re in it at that point, I hate to say it, but you could be married to it for a long time. Man, this is a whippy market.Comment
-
ICPT is basing, so I am comfortable sitting in that, but TTD is hinting at a reversal right at the top of a regression channel, so I took 1/2 my position off the table today and locked in about 5% profit on that 1/2, i.e. 2.5% overall baring a gap down. I still think it has room to run and I like the fundamentals, so I’ll let the other half ride with a stop at my entry. This way, I’ve locked in a profitable trade although it won’t be at the 10-15% I hoped for. I wish I could figure out a way to post a chart so I could show you the regression channel I am worried about. If it is channel bound, it could drop all the way back to the 45-46 area. The best thing for it to do now is base sideways if it doesn’t resume moving upward. I have several other positions I am in and several I am looking at that I may post next week if there is any interest.Comment
-
Looks like TTD based sideways and has now broken the regression channel. I only have a half position because of my Uber caution, but it look good so i’m going to ride it. ICPT is also basing sideways, and looks good. Barring some even to tank the market, they should both move higher.
Other trades I’m Looking at include AMZN, CELG, CGNX, CLNE, DDD, GTLS (needs to retrace or base), NVR (still), PCG, and TWTR (missed the optimal entry). I am also managing a few other positions I was in. Most of these are short term technical, short term swing plays, but a few a fundamental plays in which I’m looking for a good technical entry.Comment
-
Hit my 10% first target on TTD, I just put a trail stop on it. That will lock in about a 7.5% profit on the overall trade. I like the long term story here, so I hope it rides, but if it doesn’t, I’ll sell and perhaps buy back in on another good technical pattern. It’s just the way I trade. I hate riding stocks through a draw down. I stopped out on my NUVA trade, a position i’ve been in since early March. Got about 15% on that one. I don’t know what’s going on with NUVA, but it’s selling off today. Not enough volume to look like institutional selling. I like the long-term outlook on this one too, so I may look for another pattern to re-enter.Comment
-
Wow, what a great entry for COHR today. Put a stop under the current base around 172.50 and there’s excellent risk reward, even with a modest short term target of 220. Since this is a Mr. Market pick, you could sell half at the near term target as a hedge and then let it right. Chart and fundamentals both say this could go a lot higher. I’m in.Comment
-
Entered NVR today too with stop below the current base around 2950 (I always give it a little wiggle room). The risk reward is excellent if it can break out of that range.Comment
-
That and COHR look very interesting, gonna give 'em a try.Originally posted by BlueWolf View PostComment
-
Good luck, Louetta. I’ll keep you posted on my positions. Just keep in mind that I am super conservative. I promise to my share my thoughts, though.Comment
-
Well, NVR and COHR haven’t stopped out yet, but they’re both teasing. This is an incredibly volatile market. Even short term swing trading is difficult.Comment
-
I stopped out on both. It’s a bummer, but I have to stick with the discipline. I’m still in ICPT and TTD.Comment
-
Blue Wolf, I respect your discipline and technical view. May ask your technical opinion of LRCX at 192 at this time?Comment
-
Took a look at LRCX. There’s a lot in the chart, so let me tell you what I see.
1. Downward pressure: Technically, it’s in a down trend on the daily because it pivoted on a lower high and because it’s in a downward regression channel. It’s also sitting right on the previous low pivot and has little support beneath it if it breaks down below this area (It could easily head for the 150’s). It also formed a major red bar today (although it had a tail) on high volume after two days of buying on high volume. That has to be creating some panic selling. Finally, if you do a Fibonacci retracement on it from the February (daily) low to the March high, it retraced to the 61.8% level, which is very bearish.
2. Upward possibilities: It is currently sitting at that prior low pivot and it is currently in an area of support, hence it could reverse from here, although I honestly think that is unlikely. The weekly chart is a little more bullish, but even that says it could (should?) retrace to the 150-170 area before resuming any up trend.
All in all, I’d say it is in a pretty bearish pattern, but there’s no low risk entry here either for a long or a short. If I were looking to go long, I’d wait for confirmation of a reversal which means clearing about 200 and either basing sideways or continuing up to break out of the regression channel. Even then, it’s not a very pretty buying pattern. If I were looking to go short, I wait for it to bounce and than reverse off the regression channel bounds back downward. It’s definitely a far more bearish pattern than a bullish one. If you’re in it, I hope I’m wrong about it going lower. I hope that helps.Comment
Comment