Technical Trades Anyone

[BlueWolf]

Every now and then I have one of those killer day trades. Usually, I’m happy for a 1-2% gain on any individual trade, but I had a short on Monday that hit for about 4.4% in 26 minutes. The stock is IIVI, which was on my short watch list at the beginning of the week, so I was watching it closely on Monday morning. The market gapped down at the open, and I usually don’t like jumping into a gap play right off the bat, so I waited about five minutes to get the lay of the land. When the stock based at the low and the futures looked ready to crash, I decided to enter when it took out the Low of the Day (LOD). I play the vast majority of my day/scalp trades off five minute charts, but in this case, the market was moving very fast, so I played this one off a one minute chart. I attached an annotated chart below. As you can see from the chart, it headed even lower after I took profits, but I followed my plan and was happy with the trade. I learned the hard way to stick to trading discipline because it’s very easy to get greedy only to end up giving back your gains and turn a winner into a loser.

Annotated One Minute Chart for IIVI:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/n9c02ut4gh51xjw/Photo%20Nov%2014%2C%201%2032%2006%20PM.jpg?dl=0

[BlueWolf]

I am trading NVEE long today on it’s bounce off an area of support. I haven’t entered a swing trade in a while, but this sure looks like it might be worth holding. Even though they missed on earnings, I am not sure why NVEE got hammered so badly after they upped guidance. The 26% haircut seems irrational, but the market does what it wants when it wants without justification. Still, despite all the bearishness and my own proclamations about the dangers of holding right now, I so want to hold this position. Technically, it sure looks like it has more bounce in it, and fundamentally this is a strong company. What to do, what to do ....

Annotated NVEE Daily chart:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/8alchh85rllxjz3/Photo%20Nov%2015%2C%2010%2048%2012%20AM.jpg?dl=0

[BlueWolf]

I held it, but I took profits this morning. Market gapped down at the open, bounced, and then rolled over again. There is just too much downward pressure to hold anything long right now.

[BlueWolf]

I had a monster trade today on one of the stocks on my start-of-the-week short list, ZS. I just got incredibly lucky. I have attached both a daily chart to show why it was on my watch list and a five minute chart to show how I traded it. I provide these merely for educational purposes, and I hope it helps somebody.

Annotated Daily Chart for ZS:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/0i2e7g25xpyphtm/Photo%20Nov%2019%2C%202%2048%2058%20PM.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Five Minute Chart for ZS:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ad68b5y0cnsphij/Photo%20Nov%2019%2C%202%2049%2004%20PM.jpg?dl=0

[Louetta]

I look at all the charts. Appreciate them.

[BlueWolf]

I had a nice short trade today on TLRY. Ever since I got in on TLRY’s monster drop from $300 (I put a strangle on it at the time), this stock on been on my perpetual watch list, and I have traded it multiple times, both long and short. Today I shorted it in a rare (for me) counter-trend trade (The futures were moving sideways when I initiated the trade and headed up as the day progressed). I just liked the setup and the risk/reward, so I took a shot.

Annotated 5 minute chart for TLRY:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/sybu6fc83elg2l6/Photo%20Nov%2030%2C%202%2011%2035%20PM.jpg?dl=0

[BlueWolf]

I entered a very risky short hold position today on TLRY at $95.80. It’s risky because it’s a cannabis stock, and these can heat up in a flurry. Still, I felt the risk/reward was good, and I found that both the chart and the company fundamentals warranted it. I’m hoping it will become a monster short and drop to the $50’s or $40’s, but I would be happy if it just took out the October dip and dropped to the low 80’s. If it reaches that level, I use a liberal trailing stop to try and ride it to even lower levels. I have day traded this stock both short and long over the last couple of months, and I had a option strangle on it when it sky rocketed to $300 back in September. So I got bold today, and made a play for the longer term. Now, let’s sit back and watch it gap up to $150.

Annotated daily chart for TLRY.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/0c58272uloji3fy/Photo%20Dec%2011%2C%202%2043%2039%20PM.jpg?dl=0

[antioch6]

My brother has someone daytrading the Cannabis stocks for him. He is disciplined and uses technical entries. They have been daytrading CRON to my knowledge without any success for the past week. I'm tempted to go in to my local hydro store and ask their opinion on the marijuana stocks.

[BlueWolf]

There is some money to be made trading Cannabis stocks, no doubt. Trying to trade them on fundamentals alone, however, is extremely difficult. There are a ton of companies vying to get a foothold in the market, and it is difficult to know which ones are going to emerge. If you are interested in Cannabis stocks, check out “Phoenix7’s Stock Sizzlers” thread. Phoenix7 is much more knowledgeable about these stocks than I am. I am mostly a day trader, and I trade a variety of different stocks based on technical (and fundamental) scans.

[BlueWolf]

Got lucky on TLRY, and it’s time to start trail stopping. Currently at an 18% gain. Trades like this don’t come along that often, especially since this was against the (micro) market trend. It’s always tricky to trail stop, especially if you think the stock still has room to run and you don’t want to exit too soon. On the flip side I already have a lot of profit in this one, and I don’t want to give back too much. I looked at the daily chart for a technical stop, but it was pretty much a straight drop. So I went to the hourly chart for a pivot or base, but the nearest base was at $90. That’s too far away since it is currently trading around $78. I’m therefore just going to use a straight $2 trail stop.

[BlueWolf]

Oh well, I jinxed myself by posting. I trail stopped out at $77.69. I wanted to see it go to $50, but I had a plan and I stuck with it. Besides, I can always re-enter on a bounce if I remain convinced it’s heading to $50. I still had a 21.7% gain in just three days, so I am grateful. I hope by posting my thinking on this trade, it helped some of you.

[Louetta]

I've been watching it all morning on the CNBC ticker because of your trade as it headed South. Good call, too bad about the stop.

[BlueWolf]

I've been watching it all morning on the CNBC ticker because of your trade as it headed South. Good call, too bad about the stop.

That was quite a drop, huh? I have no complaints, though. It was a good trade for me, and if I don’t stay disciplined about my stops, I might ignore one on another trade that goes against me. I will study this chart, however, to try and learn how to better handle a run away pattern in which the chart doesn’t give you any clear pivots or bases to use for trailing stops. The fixed dollar amount trailing stop I used was completely arbitrary.

You want to see a really bad drop? Take a gander at YRIV. They spiked up very quickly back in late May and early June and just gave it all back in six days. Hindenburg Research put out a very negative report on them, basically calling them a scam operation. In the report they said the company was more or less worth nothing, and by the looks of it, it may indeed be headed for zero. Of course, Hindenburg precipitated the fall with their report, but if you read it, they seemed to have done their homework, even using field investigators on the ground in China to confirm certain details. I have to admit, I often have doubts about trading Chinese stocks because I don’t believe their financial reporting is as carefully monitored or regulated as US companies. I mean what exactly can the SEC do if they lie on their financials? Send them a harsh postcard?

Non-annotated Daily Chart for YRIV:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/9x075rfq8a1gjm8/Photo%20Dec%2013%2C%201%2028%2016%20PM.jpg?dl=0

[BlueWolf]

Here an interesting trade today from NKTR. I have included both annotated daily and 5 minute charts. There’s a lot of interesting stuff going on in the daily, which I have noted in the chart. The 5 minute chart shows how I played it. Since there were no clean bases for the most part, I used pivot lows as stops.

Annotated Daily chart for NKTR:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/0jehl16d86rv60r/Photo%20Jan%2015%2C%201%2055%2046%20PM.jpg?dl=0

Annotated 5 Minute chart for NKTR:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/z62asn9fqfw542v/Photo%20Jan%2015%2C%202%2028%2035%20PM.jpg?dl=0

[BlueWolf]

I told you that I was seeing a lot of little basing patterns. I came across several more today and thought I would share one (CBS). I have included an annotated chart. I haven’t traded this one yet, and I might not even if it breaks out to the upside because it’s not technically in a bullish state unlike NKTR was previously. If the markets were rockin’ to the upside and it broke out to the upside, I probably would take a shot, but if it were another day like we have been having this week with mostly sideways movement or if the markets were falling, I would probably just leave it alone. Just wanted to share this because it was such a clean pattern. Too bad it’s in such a bearish state.

Annotated daily chart for CBS:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/zdbfuiuwdod4glx/Photo%20Jan%2016%2C%202%2059%2008%20PM.jpg?dl=0