Technical Trades Anyone

[BlueWolf]

Sounds like you have a good handle on things, wifwif. BTW, that thing with fast food, alchohol, and fashion was a joke. I think you’re right. Tobacco would be a better choice. People do like their smokes when they’re stressed out.

Best of luck in all your trading.

[tiedyed1]

Hi BlueWolf;
Hope you are having a good Summer.

I am wondering if you have any thoughts on NVR at this (2800) level?

(appears some insiders sold recently but not that many shares sold to get me concerned and I have felt like this 2800 level has reoccurred before on its way back between 3100-3200)

Your (and others) opinions are appreciated!

[BlueWolf]

Well, NVR is extended down from it 20, 40, and 200 day moving averages, which usually implies it is due for some kind of bounce, and it is holding in a area of prior support. Overall the chart doesn’t look that good, however, because of all the overhead resistance. I think it could be a while before it breaks through that 3100-3200 range, unless it gaps up over it, which it could do at next earnings. The last earnings were not bad, IMHO, but because they missed on revenue, they got punished a little. Morningstar has the stock’s fair value at $2450 a share, so it’s not exactly undervalued, but I don’t think the earnings were bad enough to justify a lot more movement to the downside at this point. It’s just that revenue growth and positive cash flow have been pretty spectacular over the last three years, so expectations are high. Here’s one thing to worry about: NVR is a home builder and it looks like interest rates are headed back up. That could have a negative impact on their bottom line. I wish I could give you better news on this stock, but all in all, it’s not a great looking chart and there are some reasons to be a little concerned about their revenue going forward. I sure hope I’m wrong, but that’s what I see, for what it’s worth.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ms22qq0wu6qdgjw/Photo%20Jul%2028%2C%207%2026%2036%20AM.jpg?dl=0

[tiedyed1]

BlueWolf, as always, I truly appreciate your perspective and especially taking the time to share it. Very helpful adding your take to my decision making. It is terrific having your participation here on this board!
Thank you; -Adam

[Louetta]

BlueWolf, as always, I truly appreciate your perspective and especially taking the time to share it. Very helpful adding your take to my decision making. It is terrific having your participation here on this board!
Thank you; -Adam

2nd that....

[BlueWolf]

Adam and Louetta, thank you for your kind words. You are both very welcome to any help I can offer. I know I’ve availed myself of the information Mr. Market and everyone else here has shared. This is a pretty good place to harvest trading ideas.

[BlueWolf]

I haven’t been swing trading in a while, but TWTR looks very appealing here to me. I have attached a chart so you can see what I am looking at. I wouldn’t expect it to run all the way to $42 cleanly, but with a stop around $31, I would be risking about a $2.50 loss against a possible $10 gain. That’s a good risk/reward. If it does run up, I would probably place a liberal trail stop on it after about a $3 gain.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/579gbthzjq7oc7k/Photo%20Aug%2021%2C%207%2007%2022%20AM.jpg?dl=0

[BlueWolf]

I am really liking CELG right now both in terms of its valuation and it’s chart. I meant to post a chart on it yesterday, but got busy. If I have time later, I will post one tonight. There’s a little overhead resistance around $95, but I think it has a fair amount of upside potential after breaking out of its base today. Just a thought for anyone interested.

[BlueWolf]

Here’s a daily chart for CELG. I entered today as a swing trade as it broke out of the base. Have to manage this one carefully because of the next level of resistance around $95-$97. I’d like to get 10% out of it, although I’d settle for 5%. Today, I sold my TWTR from last week for about an 8% gain. I was tempted to stay in it because I think it has more upside, but I figure I can always re-enter. I had picked up some IQ last week as well and I closed that yesterday for a 10%+ gain. That one also looks like it has more upside, but I didn’t like that gap up and fade yesterday. The last week or so has been a pretty good market for swing trading, especially now that earnings season is mostly over. If I see anymore interesting ones, I’ll post them.

CELG daily chart:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/8boe15sdn2axjr4/Photo%20Aug%2029%2C%202%2036%2045%20PM.jpg?dl=0

[BlueWolf]

I thought I might start posting a preview each week if time permits. For the coming short week, I have a bullish bias, and I still believe the environment for short term long swing trading is favorable. We are due for at least a minor retrace, but the NASDAQ, the DOW, and the S&P all nevertheless look very strong, and the VIX is still relatively low. I included a NASDAQ daily chart for your perusing pleasure. If you want some ideas to check out for the week from my personal weekly watch list, take a look at the following stocks. A few are dead cat bounce plays (be very careful with these), but most are bullish momentum, retrace, or continuation plays. I’ll be watching for either daytrade or swing trade entries. Good luck this week and I hope everyone enjoyed the long Labor Day weekend.

NASDAQ daily chart:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/1bg4fxm201ljebs/Photo%20Sep%2003%2C%203%2058%2055%20PM.jpg?dl=0

AAXN, ACXM, ARNC, AUDC, CACC, CHGG, EHC, FIX, HIBB, HIIQ, JOBS, MZOR, ORLY, PTLA, TREX, YNDX

[BlueWolf]

Well, the market pretty much retraced all last week, so it wasn’t a good environment for swing trading long. The setup for HIIQ from my list wasn’t bad, and it broke out on Friday, but I didn’t swing trade it out of an over abundance of caution. Overall, I’m still bullish on the market based on the daily NASDAQ chart. The market needs to hold in this area, though, or we are going break the regression channel and the current uptrend, which could portend a deeper retrace. I will still be looking to swing trade long this week if the setups look better, and I will be scalp/day trading both long and short as usual. Here are some stocks that I will be watching for long swing trade setups (I update/change this as the week goes on): AGN, BILI, BV, CELG (yet again), ICPT, IRBT, LXFT, NCI, TRUE. Good luck in your trading and I offer you my four basic rules for day/swing trading:

1) Choose a minimum risk/reward ratio and use it as the basis of your trading (I recommend at least 2:1, which means you only need 1 in 3 winning trades to break even).
2) Only take trades that meet your minimum risk/reward ratio.
3) Always book profit at your targets or use trail stops, i.e. stay with the plan and don’t get greedy.
4) Always honor your stops, i.e. don’t marry yourself to a losing trade.

Daily NASDAQ chart:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/785jtdww6kzbax7/Photo%20Sep%2009%2C%209%2050%2043%20AM.jpg?dl=0

[BlueWolf]

It was a great day for day trading. The futures gapped down and then immediately bounced and started a strong uptrend. I had one particularly good day trade that I thought I would share. I have posted an annotated 5 min chart. I decided to just day trade this one instead of swing trading it because the daily chart just didn’t seem all that compelling to me. Let me know if posting something like this has any value or holds any interest, and I can post one of these from time to time. I can even post a losing trade every now and then if that helps anyone. NASDAQ is holding its regression channel so far this week, but tomorrow is another day and there are no guarantees. All we can do is play the percentages.

CLDR 5 min chart:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/mrai8fzqfphuvch/Photo%20Sep%2011%2C%201%2023%2054%20PM.jpg?dl=0

[Louetta]

It was a great day for day trading. The futures gapped down and then immediately bounced and started a strong uptrend. I had one particularly good day trade that I thought I would share. I have posted an annotated 5 min chart. I decided to just day trade this one instead of swing trading it because the daily chart just didn’t seem all that compelling to me. Let me know if posting something like this has any value or holds any interest, and I can post one of these from time to time. I can even post a losing trade every now and then if that helps anyone. NASDAQ is holding its regression channel so far this week, but tomorrow is another day and there are no guarantees. All we can do is play the percentages.

CLDR 5 min chart:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/mrai8fzqfp...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

Yes, this is interesting to me.

[riverbabe]

Yup, I remember. My stress levels just went up when I looked at your 5 min. chart this morning. I used a 1 min. I burned out pretty quick doing this. Best of luck to you, though. Is that stochastics you're using? Nice trade.

[BlueWolf]

Is that stochastics you're using?

No stochastic. I use three simple moving averages (10, 20, 200) and a CCI. I don’t pay much attention to the 200 on a 5 min chart, but I rely on it on the daily. Sometimes I will use a 40 SMA. I will also use an ATR to see if a trade is worth it, i.e. is there enough price movement in stock, and I occasionally use MACD or ADX when scanning. For swing trades I rely heavily on Fibonaccis and regression channels.