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Good luck, tiedyed1.
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There was definitely no long daytrade for LRCX today as it is not looking good. It tested support again on pretty healthy volume and closed near the LOD. The more it tests support, the more likely it is to break down.
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I mention that I have been more inclined to swing trade lately, and I liked two kinds of plays: Bullish momentum and bounces. I’ve missed on a few, but that’s the game. If you keep your risk/reward reasonable, you’ll still win. Here are a couple of bullish momentum plays that I am still in that have worked well. As it turns out, these were both in Mr. Market’s G7 data dump, but the type of scans he does are likely to turn up a lot of bullish momentum plays. These were both on my radar beforehand, but I frequently use his scans to filter for more ideas, another benefit of Mr. Market.
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Here’s one I’m watching. It’s not a bullish momentum play, but it is a basing play. There’s not a whole lot of overhead resistance, so if it hits and closes we’ll, I might swing it instead of just daytrading it.
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Kind of a nasty day for the market. Not much worked for me today and the nice long setups for tomorrow are scarce. Will we see follow up to the downside tomorrow or yet another reversal day? LRCX continues to hold support, but like I said before, the more it tests that support, the weaker it gets.Comment
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Bad news today on LRCX as it broke support and then ran a little to the downside. There are no absolutes, but from a technical perspective, it now looks like it is headed lower still. A big up day in the market could lift it, but the last two days have been moderately weak. I hope I’m wrong. Here’s an updated chart.
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LRCX found its new level of support today and bounced. I have attached a chart. You have to go way back on the weekly to find the next level of support, which essentially means there isn’t one. Does that mean it’s heading way lower? I don’t think so. In fact, I think this level of support will hold. It may a drop a little more and thrash around this level for a while, but the company is too fundamentally sound to justify another major drop, IMHO. I personally think the big question now is whether it consolidates in this price range or immediately bounces, and I think that will be largely determined by the overall market. The market had been very bearish for several days now, especially with the latest round of tariff rhetoric, but I will keep this one on my watch list because of the potential for a nice bounce. I hope that helps tiedyed1.
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It’s time for caution again, IMHO. The NASDAQ has been a little bullish, but both the Dow and NASDAQ are testing the bottom of their current regression channel and could go either way this week. Since last week, I’m have been back to not holding anything overnight (except in my long term retirement account) even though market volatility is still pretty low. Part of the reason is because we are coming into earnings season, during which volatility is likely to increase. Right now, if I wanted to hold a stock through earnings, I’d probably use an option straddle given all the gaps we have seen over the last few months. I included a couple of marked up charts for the Dow and NASDAQ, so you can see some of the things I am looking at.
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Interesting thought about the straddle. The recent weakness in the NASDAQ is a smidge ominous.
Hmmm. Now about tomorrow......Last edited by Louetta; 06-24-2018, 10:13 PM.Comment
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Blood in the water today, folks. Caution, at least in terms of going long, was a good idea. Short opportunities abound right now as everything seems headed straight down. Unfortunately, my retirement account, in which I do hold long term positions, is getting murdered. Will this break the regression channels enough to shift the overall market bias to bearish? We’ll see.Comment
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I am expecting a bounce today. The futures are up pre-market, and it looks like both the Dow and NASDAQ will gap up at the open. Should be a good day for scalping long at the open. You just have to be wary of a fade as day progresses. The indices have all broken their regression channels, and there is no way of telling yet how much of a retrace to expect overall. I’m just taking it one day at a time. Until today, my bias has been bearish all week. I had some solid short positions on Wednesday, but I’m still kicking myself for getting out of them too early. That’s something I have to work on.Comment
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The overall market is currently in a downtrend on the daily charts. I know people like to buy on a dip, but I would advise caution. I have included daily and weekly charts for the NASDAQ to explain why. As you can see on the daily chart, the NASDAQ has clearly broken it’s upward regression channel and started a downtrend. That, in of itself, doesn’t imply anything about how much of a downtrend this will be. What concerns me is the weekly. The market has been in a strong uptrend since early 2016, and during the entire trend, it has yet to experience any sort of major retrace or correction. IMHO, it’s way overdue. Is the current downtrend the start of a major retrace? I can’t say for sure, but the widening bars and increased oscillation on the weekly chart are a reason for caution. I do have to say that since we are entering an earnings period, earnings will probably determine what happens next. If we have a lot of blowout earnings, the market will rebound, at least in the short term. If we have a slew of disappointing earnings, however, that will probably give the market the impetus it needs for a major correction. Just be cautious if you’re holding long. I know that personally I’m not going to add any long term positions to my retirement account right now, and I am unlikely to hold any long positions overnight in my trading account until I see how things shake out. Good luck everyone.
Daily:
Weekly:
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Well said. Methinks the flattening of the yield curve, manifested in XLF being down 13 straight days, or thereabouts, and the likely strengthening of the powers of CFIUS are troublesome from a market standpoint as well.Comment
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