Technical Trades Anyone

[BlueWolf]

BTW, I don’t know how long I’ll be able to continue posting, but I hope you find some use in some of the things I post. If you have a stock that you want a technical opinion on, post it and I’ll try to take a look. It will help get my technical chops back in playing shape. The most important thing to know right now is that the market is acting bearish and volatility is high, so if you like to trade long exercise the utmost in caution.

[Louetta]

I've found the stuff interesting. Don't go away permanently.

[BlueWolf]

Well, I’m flat. TTD stopped out. Until I see better signs, if I trade now, it’ll be short.

[BlueWolf]

Market is trying to bounce here, but I remain unconvinced about its mid term intentions. There are plenty of good scalp plays here, but swing plays are still twitchy. NVR is still range bound and tempting, but I have to respect the discipline and the indices and e-minis are both still suggesting bearishness, so I’m still sitting it out. If my TradeStation account was fully funded, I’d probably be scalp trading the morning moves. LRCX is bouncing a little, but it doesn’t seem to have a lot of conviction, and I still think it might be headed lower before reversing. Glad I’m out of COHR, which turned into a great short. If I had taken the AMAT and CRSP shorts, I would’ve exited both now with a profit. Just going to spend my days analyzing and building up my scans for now. I love doing analysis, but I’m a geek by nature. I’m thinking about getting back into TC2000 again. I spoke with one of their reps yesterday and all of my old scans are still backed up on their server. That would save me a lot of time.

Long term holds are still valid, as they always are, but you might not get the best entry if you jump in now. With long term holds, you have to respect the fundamentals and business models.

[BlueWolf]

Finally figured out how to upload an image. Today’s bar notwithstanding, this sure looks like a Head & Shoulders forming on the NASDAQ daily. Of course, A Head & Shoulders by itself doesn’t mean anything. It’s breaking the neckline that usually signals trouble. Still, this is enough to make me pretty cautious about going long here.

[BlueWolf]

Yet Another day, and I’m still not feeling it. I would characterize this market as “thrashing” with a bit of a bearish bias. Not a good market to do any short-term trading except for in and out day and scalp training. My trade station account is still not funded. I do love the platform, but their customer service leaves a lot to be desired. Once I do get it worked out, with the exception of a few pristine setups, I’ll probably paper tray until my scans are fully up and I have a higher degree of confidence in some of my algorithms. I hope everyone is doing well with their trading and holds. If you are holding long-term longs, you’ll probably have to be patient. In this market you’re probably going to see some more drawdown before things go your way. If the fundamentals and company are solid, though, you’ll make out. A good stock in a long-term market almost always outperforms the indices.

[Duniyo]

Yet Another day, and I’m still not feeling it. I would characterize this market as “thrashing” with a bit of a bearish bias. Not a good market to do any short-term trading except for in and out day and scalp training. My trade station account is still not funded. I do love the platform, but their customer service leaves a lot to be desired. Once I do get it worked out, with the exception of a few pristine setups, I’ll probably paper tray until my scans are fully up and I have a higher degree of confidence in some of my algorithms. I hope everyone is doing well with their trading and holds. If you are holding long-term longs, you’ll probably have to be patient. In this market you’re probably going to see some more drawdown before things go your way. If the fundamentals and company are solid, though, you’ll make out. A good stock in a long-term market almost always outperforms the indices.

I am have been out of the market for sometime. I was planning to open few long positions but this market scares the life out of me.

[BlueWolf]

Better to preserve capital when you can’t get a clear read. I’m not even seeing a lot of follow through on shorts, although I still see a bearish bias overall.

[BlueWolf]

Look at beat down COHR here. Technically, it hasn’t broken the regression channel yet, but if you want into this one for a long term hold, this could be a good entry with a stop below the prior pivot. It looks like it can make 180 easily, but given the good fundamentals, after it chews through the resistance, it could go much higher. You would have to be patient with it, though, given this market.

[tiedyed1]

Look at beat down COHR here. Technically, it hasn’t broken the regression channel yet, but if you want into this one for a long term hold, this could be a good entry with a stop below the prior pivot. It looks like it can make 180 easily, but given the good fundamentals, after it chews through the resistance, it could go much higher. You would have to be patient with it, though, given this market.

I just posted a similar expectation on the COHR thread. Needs 3-6 months for these statements to kick in:

"We experienced a surge in demand across a number of end markets during our second fiscal quarter. Orders for high power fiber lasers were up significantly from metal cutting OEMs in China, Tier 1 automotive component suppliers and EV battery manufacturers. Semiconductor capital equipment orders benefitted from high fab utilization rates and Chinese IC investments as part of Made in China 2025. Bookings across the OEM component and instrumentation space were up due to annual buys in bioinstrumentation, strength from medical OEMs and increasing opportunities in defense and aerospace.

Our Fiscal 2018 outlook on the FPD business is largely unchanged and the supply chain issue discussed last quarter has been resolved. FPD service demand was similar to last quarter and is expected to accelerate into the second half of the year," said John Ambroseo, Coherent's President and Chief Executive Officer.

"We also made our first investment in the metal additive manufacturing market with the acquisition of privately-held OR Laser, which has developed a compact tool to enable process development across multiple markets, as well as provide production capability for the dental, medical and jewelry markets. OR also developed proprietary software that is intuitive to use and does not require third party add-ons to go from CAD modeling to printed parts. Future projects will be directed towards the automotive and aerospace markets. In addition to the OR investment, we have continued making voluntary prepayments on our debt. The most recent prepayment of EUR60 million brings the total voluntary reduction to EUR285 million," Ambroseo added.

[BlueWolf]

Looks like a COHR entry this morning would have indeed been an excellent buy in. I am looking at LRCX now and it is showing some signs of life. It had a nice bullish engulfing bar today and the 180 support level seems to be holding. To be honest, though, it’s not enough to convince me personally to take a position because 1) The market is still choppy, 2) it hasn’t broken it’s regression channel yet, and 3) that daily chart is really a mess.

[Duniyo]

Why has it fallen steeply since the beginning of the year?

[BlueWolf]

Why has it fallen steeply since the beginning of the year?

Well, i’m looking at it primarily from a technical point of view, but I have to believe it was either because of earnings or guidance. When you have a stock that has risen as much is COHR has in 2017, it usually means investors are impressed with its growth. Any hiccups in that growth causes an overreaction in the market. It doesn’t necessarily mean the company is in trouble or is even doing that badly. The market reactions to changes in the wrong direction are just very intense, which is why I rely on technical indicators. Believe it or not, the reactions to such things often follow the same patterns. That’s why things like Fibonacci retracement indicators often work. When I long-term trade I definitely look at fundamentals and growth myself, and even in short-term trades, I prefer going long on companies whose fundamentals are sound. I’ll do some digging and see if I can find out what news in particular sent COHR reeling.

[BlueWolf]

OK, I did some research, and what started the tumble in COHR was their first quarter earnings report. Overall, the numbers were pretty good. They posted solid year-over-year gains in revenue and profits. Compared to their fourth quarter numbers, however, the growth wasn’t as strong, and that caused a negative chain reaction in the stock price. Like I said, market reactions are are always overblown. If you look at the earnings number on this company, it’s a solid company and a good long-term investment. They just posted their second-quarter earnings, and the numbers, while not spectacular, were solid. That’s why it’s bouncing a little now, and given tendencies for momentum in this stock, that’s another reason why I thought yesterday was a good entry.

[BlueWolf]

Took a shot on CASA this morning, my first play in days. Just looking for a quick 7-10%, although I wouldn’t turn my nose up to 15%. Still waiting for my TradeStation account to get funded so I can download the software and get busy.