BlueWolf’s Weekly Market Sentiment (New and Improved with Better Flavor!)

[BlueWolf]

Yes, a Happy Birthday to you, and here's to many, many more!

Thanks, jiesen.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending April 17, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending April 17, 2020

Short Term Bias: Slightly Bearish
Long Term Bias: Neutral

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. I have not included charts for the Dow or S&P, which are similar to the NASDAQ.

Well, the market, just to spite me, gapped up on Monday dispelling any notion that it would make a new pivot low in the immediate future. In fact, by gapping up, the market created both an island bottom and a higher pivot low. The higher pivot low provided enough to form an uptrend and establish a regression channel. This regression will provide a metric by which we can tell if the bullishness remains intact. For this reason, my long term bias has changed to neutral while I watch to see how far this uptrend might take us. On a cautious, the NASDAQ, as well as the other indices, formed a doji (basically a pause) on Friday near the top boundary of the regression channel. For this reason, a little pullback wouldn’t surprise me at this point and my short term bias is slightly bearish.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/0c9pjbhd90...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

Coming off last week’s bounce, I saw quite a few long setups, but as we have seen before, these bounces don’t always follow through and the market could easily reverse from here. I have to go with the flow, though, and last week’s flow was decidedly bullish, so most of my setups are bullish. Here are some stocks I will be watching for long and short day/swing trades to start the week:
Longs: ACGL, CME, DAR, FMBI, IRT, KNOP, RVLV, SIVB, TFC, TSLA
Shorts: BJ, NET

Good luck with your trading and investing, and join me in continuing to send healing thoughts and prayers to those affected by the Coronavirus.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending April 24, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending April 24, 2020

Short Term Bias: Neutral
Long Term Bias: Bullish

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. I have not included charts for the Dow or S&P, which are similar to the NASDAQ.

This week the market emphatically demonstrated its bullish intentions and reinforced its uptrend. The indices all sit at an important inflection point now, the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace off the March 23 bottom. If the indices push past this inflection point, we will probably be looking at a recovery similar to the ones after the Oct, 2018 and May, 2018 corrections, in which the market eventually made new highs. In anticipation of this, my long term sentiment is now bullish again. There will be pullbacks, off course, but as long as they stay within regression channel boundaries, the uptrend will remain intact. Currently the indices are hovering around the upper boundary of their regression channels, which often indicates that some sort of pullback is coming, but Friday’s action demonstrated that the bulls are still buying. For those reasons, my short term bias is neutral.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/f8cv3uif8e...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

This weekend, I found quite a few long setups after last weeks bullish action and very little in the way of short setups that I liked - This probably means the market will jink down on Monday Here are the stocks I will be watching for long and short day/swing trades to start the week:
Longs: ALGN, CME, DGX, ESTC, HCA, KPTI, RVLV, ZBH
Shorts: PTON

Good luck with your trading and investing, and join me in continuing to send healing thoughts and prayers to those affected by the Coronavirus.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending May 1, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending May 1, 2020

Short Term Bias: Bullish
Long Term Bias: Bullish

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. I have not included charts for the Dow or S&P even though are both slightly divergent from the NASDAQ. The Dow has only retraced to the 50% Fibonacci level as opposed to the 61.8% level of both the NASDAQ and S&P. Additionally, both the Dow and S&P sit near the lower boundary of their regression channels whereas the NASDAQ sits in the middle. These divergences, IMHO, are not yet significant enough yet to warrant a separate analysis, but I will keep an eye on them.

The NASDAQ bounced off a key inflection point this, pulling back from the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace level and from the upper boundary of its regression channel. This could have been the start of a rollover, but after recoiling early in the week, all three indices started a climb back up on Wednesday, finishing the week with bullish bars and closing only slightly down from the highs of the previous week. This doesn’t look to me like behavior I would expect in a bearish rollover. The key takeaway is that all three indices remain inside their uptrend regression channels, and for this reason my long term bias remains bullish. Since the indices are now hovering either near the bottom or middle of these channels, and given Friday’s bullish bars, my short term bias is also bullish. I admit that it could just be wishful thinking, but I am expecting continued upside next week. We’ll have to keep a close eye on the indices, though, because movement to the downside from here could break the uptrend and signal a return to bearishness, i.e., we were at the maximum extent of a bearish retrace after all.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/tvvx08q1mh...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

I found quite a few long setups again to start the week and very few sweet short setups. Just like last week, this could mean that the market will drop on Monday, and I will be woefully unprepared to short going into the new week. Here are the stocks I will be watching for long and short day/swing trades to start the week:
Longs: AMRN, CIEN, FB, G, LYFT, NUVA, PINS, RH, SIVB
Shorts: IRM, LLNW, TAL

Good luck with your trading and investing, and join me in continuing to send healing thoughts and prayers to those affected by the Coronavirus.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending May 8, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending May 8, 2020

Short Term Bias: Bearish
Long Term Bias: Bearish

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ and for the S&P. I have not included a chart for the Dow as it is similar to the S&P.

The key word this week is “divergence.” There is a significant divergence between the NASDAQ and the S&P/Dow. Technically speaking, the NASDAQ is still in a bullish state, having crept through the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace level off the March low and staying within the regression channel of its uptrend. Both the S&P and Dow, however, failed to penetrate the 61.8% retrace level, and broke out through the lower boundary of their regression channels. The S&P, in the most bearish state, formed a bar completely outside of the regression channel, which usually portends a trend change. Right now, I am leaning towards believing the bearishness of the S&P and Dow charts. Friday’s bar on the NASDAQ reinforces this a little even though it did not penetrate the regression channel boundary. For these reasons, both my short and long term bias is now bearish, and I am expecting the market to go into a period of volatility during which buy and hold positions are likely to be rocked around pretty good. I could be wrong about all this as I am anticipating in a big way, but I am heading into next week with bearish expectations.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/nb2i1b8ima...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Daily Chart for the S&P:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/pwh2k0jk21...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

Here are the stocks I will be watching for long and short day/swing trades to start the week:
Longs: DAVA, ETSY, ZM,
Shorts: AAXN, BZUN, MTCH, WIX, ZNGA

Good luck with your trading and investing, and join me in continuing to send healing thoughts and prayers to those affected by the Coronavirus.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending May 15, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending May 15, 2020

Short Term Bias: Neutral
Long Term Bias: Neutral

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ and for the S&P. I have not included a chart for the Dow as it is similar to the S&P.

The key words for this week are “oops” followed by “divergence.” My fear that the divergence between the NASDAQ and S&P/Dow combined with last Friday’s bearish bars signaled a market rollover were completed unfounded, hence the “oops.” The market, particularly the NASDAQ, repudiated me by heading up immediately and sustaining its upward motion over the entire week. Still, the divergence between the NASDAQ and the other indices persisted this week, and, in fact, became even more pronounced. While the NASDAQ resumed its march upward with some force, creating a higher pivot low and a higher pivot high in the process, the S&P/Dow languished, climbing more slowly and failing to have enough impetus for a taking their prior pivot highs. All I can do now is trade with the market as it manifests itself, cautiously ready to reverse direction if needed. For this reason, both my long and short term bias is neutral.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/l1pp9va1d8...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Daily Chart for the S&P:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/dl4lbduhn1...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

Here are the stocks I will be watching for long and short day/swing trades to start the week:
Longs: CSGP, FIVN, GM, OLLI, PING, ROKU, RVLV
Shorts: FLT, HRC, LMNX

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending May 22, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending May 22, 2020

Short Term Bias: Neutral
Long Term Bias: Neutral

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ and for the S&P. I have not included a chart for the Dow as it is similar to the S&P.

My biggest takeaway from last week is once again “divergence.” This divergence, between the NASDAQ and the S&P/Dow, has become so pronounced that the NASDAQ is still in an uptrend whereas the S&P and Dow are both technically in a downtrend. Eventually, this divergence will go away and the indices will resolve into a common pattern. Which pattern? I don’t know for sure, but my educated guess is that the indices will resolve to the downside. I just see a lot of bearishness, even in the NASDAQ. If you look at the NASDAQ with respect to its uptrend regression channel you can clearly see that the index is fading. The last two pivot highs have failed to challenge the upper boundary of the channel. Moreover, the last three bars of the NASDAQ daily chart are also indicating some weakness. The first of these bars headed down soon after the open and closed near the lower boundary of the regression channel. The next two bars opened with gaps down and ended up straddling the lower boundary. On the other hand, each bar had a bottoming tail, although the tail on the last bar was pretty small, and the last two bars moved higher off their bottoms to close near the high of the day (HOD). This indicates that there are still some bulls out there, buying into weakness. Unfortunately, this buying has not been strong enough to push the index back up and fully inside of the regression channel. The bottom line is that I remain neutral in both my short and long term bias. I would be bearish, but I need some confirmation. It is entirely possible that the S&P and DOW, even though they are technically in downtrends by the smallest of margins (lower pivots highs, lower pivot lows), could base sideways for a while and then breakout to the upside, joining the NASDAQ in an uptrend. That’s not my expectation, but I don’t have enough data yet to rule out this scenario so I remain neutral.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/p56a8mgwbt...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Daily Chart for the S&P:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/2ndmjydbdq...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

The funny thing is, despite my bearish inclinations, I found far more bullish setups than I did nice shorts. For what it’s worth, here are the stocks I will be watching for long and short day/swing trades to start the week:
Longs: AYX, CRM, FTNT, MTCH, NTNX, NVDA, OLLI, PANW, PYPL
Shorts: AAXN, ROKU

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending May 22, 2020 (**Midweek Update**)

Short Term Bias: Bullish
Long Term Bias: Neutral

I have been watching the market closely since the start of the week and I am seeing lots of bull sign all over the place. I am on the border of being convinced that the DOW and S&P will breakout to the upside and join the NASDAQ in uptrend. In particular, I am seeing a ton of stocks with basing-at-the-high patterns. This is a very bullish pattern that, more often than not, portends another leg up to come. Examples, if you care to look, include: ABMD, ATVI, CRWD, DDOG, EVBG, FIVN, GH, LVGO, MASI, PYPL (starting to breakout), QDEL, QTWO, REGN, SHOP, WIX, ZS. FB is an example of a stock that broke out to upside from its basing-at-the-high pattern. I am also seeing quite a few other bullish patterns including cups and handles, bull flags and bull pennants. All of this had me feeling a little bullish, at least for the short term, and so I find myself building a few positions again. I’m certainly not going all in, however, and I’m still sitting in about 70% cash right now. I was as high as 85% at one recent point.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending May 29, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending May 29, 2020

Short Term Bias: Bullish
Long Term Bias: Neutral

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ and for the Dow. I have not included a chart for the S&P as it is similar to the Dow.

The divergence between the NASDAQ and the Dow/S&P continues, but has become a little clearer now. While the NASDAQ remains in an uptrend, this uptrend has morphed into a regression channel with a much shallower slope than had existed in late March and early April. An uptrend is an uptrend, however, and the NASDAQ continues to make higher pivot highs and higher pivot lows. In contrast, the DOW and S&P have taken a pause, moving sideways while they consolidate their late March and early April gains. Since this consolidation is happening at the high off the March 23 bottom, there is a reasonable chance that the Dow and S&P will break out to the upside of this consolidation channel. For that reason, my near term bias remains bullish, and I am cautiously buying a few stocks here and there. On the other hand, should the indices linger too long in this consolidation pattern, the chances that they will break out to the downside will increase. For this reason, and because of my concerns over the change of the NASDAQ uptrend to a shallower slope, my long term bias remains neutral. I also have a certain amount of trepidation from fears that the economic impacts of COVID-19 will eventually catch up with the market. Still, I have to trade based on what the market is actually doing, and, for now, the indications are little bullish. I am therefore holding onto and lightly adding to my positions.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/j9kg085d98...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Daily Chart for the Dow:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/80wc91l47k...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

I found a number of bullish momentum plays in my scans this week, which, given the bullish indications in the market, are playable. I also found a few shorts that I like, including GDS, which looks like it is perched on a cliff. I will just watch and see what triggers. Here are the stocks I will be watching for long and short day/swing trades to start the week (Addendum: Had to remove AAXN, GRC, & HRC from short watch list as they are all Hard-to-Borrow (HB) at my broker - Bummer!):
Longs: BKNG, ETSY, IIPR, INSP, NET, PING, RVLV, SDGR, ZS
Shorts: -None-

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending June 5, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending June 5, 2020

Short Term Bias: Bullish
Long Term Bias: Bullish

I have included annotated daily charts for the NASDAQ, S&P and Dow.

All three indices have turned bullish, although each has arrived there in a different way. The NASDAQ remains the most bullish of the three indices as it is staying well within the bounds of its clearly defined uptrend channel. The S&P has sort of morphed into an uptrend, although there are some aberrations in this trend as noted in the chart. The Dow is the least bullish of the three indices, but it did end up breaking out to the upside from its sideways consolidation channel, and it looks like it is establishing itself in a new uptrend. All three indices ended up higher for the week with indications that they will continue to move higher. For this reason my short term bias remains bullish and my long term bias has now changed to bullish. Unless something rocks the market, it looks like I will be doing a lot of long-side trading for now.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/2wh8h98pde...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Daily Chart for the S&P:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/qccafc5812...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Daily Chart for the Dow:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/k4inbgbqrn...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

I have quite a few setups to start the week. It’s almost too many as it is hard to watch this many stocks for a trade trigger. I might therefore end up pruning the list very quickly after market open, but for now, these are the stocks I will be watching for long and short day/swing trades to start the week:
Longs: ARNC, FLIR, FTCH, MDLA, MRNA, NET, NTNX, NVCR, PING, SPCE, XLNX, ZUO
Shorts: ALLY, FGEN, M, MAN, WTFC

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending June 12, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending June 12, 2020

Short Term Bias: Neutral
Long Term Bias: Bullish

I’m gonna skip the annotated charts this week as I had a bit of a rough weekend. All three indices are in uptrend now, and NASDAQ even made a new high. The DOW continues to be a little wonky, although there is no question it is not in an uptrend. For these reasons my long term bias remains bullish. On the shorter term, the S&P and NASDAQ are pegged at the top of their regression channels and the DOW formed a bar above the upper boundary of its channel. This suggests that there might be a little bit of a pullback at some point in the near future so my short term bias is neutral going into the week.

I compiled a rather long watchlist - too long actually, I’ll have to pare it down quickly. I found a lot of positive activity in energy stocks, particularly natural gas and oil during my scans. I don’t know if this activity is due to the OPEC meetings or something else, but it was across the board, so I picked a few to watch. Here are the stocks I will be watching for short term trades at the start of the week:
Long: ADVM, BIDU, DDOG, GIL, HQY, MA, MTDR, NUVA, NVCR, OLED, OXY, SU, WORK
Short: APPN, CLDR, FGEN, IPHI, LHCC, Z

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending June 19, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending June 19, 2020

Short Term Bias: Bearish
Long Term Bias: Neutral

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. The S&P and Dow, while exhibiting a few variations, particularly more volatility in the DOW, are essentially the same so I did not include charts for these indices.

All three indices took a nasty turn to end the week as a flood of bad COVID-19 and economic news rocked the market. Thursday’s and Friday’s bearish bars closed the week with a lot of bearish momentum, and for this reason, my short term bias is bearish. The indices are still operating within the bounds of their bullish regression channels, and none of the indices made lower pivot lows. The NASDAQ, however, tested the bottom of its channel, and the DOW and S&P came close. For this reason, my long term bias is neutral while we wait to see what happens from this inflection point.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/z5q74jv9s5...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

Here are the stocks I will be watching for long and short day/swing trades to start the week:
Longs: BILI, ESTC, GNMK,
Shorts: CRNC, FLIR, FTNT, MNST, ZG

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending June 26, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending June 26, 2020

Short Term Bias: Neutral
Long Term Bias: Bullish

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. The S&P and Dow, while exhibiting a few variations, particularly more volatility in the DOW, are similar enough that I did not include charts for these indices.

The previous week ended with some pretty nasty bars and when the market opened on Monday by gapping down hard, it looked like we might be headed into the correction I had been expecting. Instead of continuing to head down, however, the market reversed itself almost immediately as the bulls stepped in to propel the market to an up day. On Tuesday, the market gapped up hard to open then started to fade before the bulls once again stepped in for another up day. For the rest of the week, the market based sideways, although there was a little weakness on the DOW and S&P. Although all three indices closed up for the week, the DOW and S&P closed lower for the day on Friday and formed bearish engulfing bars whereas the NASDAQ closed up for the day and formed a bit of a bullish bottoming tail. What bothers me a little is that despite being an up week, there was still a lot of red in the market with intraday prices moving lower from their opens more often than not. Because of this, Friday’s bearish engulfing bars on the DOW and S&P, and the NASDAQ’s contrasting bullishness, my short term bias going into next week is neutral. With all three indices still continuing to operate within the confines of their uptrending regression channels, I have to acknowledge this bullishness on the longer time frame and change my long term bias back to bullish, although I still admit to having fears of an imminent correction.

Note: This queasiness about the sustainability of the market’s bullishness has prevented me from buying stocks that I feel strongly about because they are either basing at the high or making new highs. I don’t like to buy into these patterns unless I am at least a little confident about market direction, but if this bullishness continues unabated, I will have to consider buying before these stocks simply run away from me.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/ixs2l2hqyj...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

Here are the stocks I will be watching for long and short day/swing trades to start the week:
Long: ANAB, FOSL, KZR, MRNA, NVTA, VIR
Short: ALLO, IIPR, NSA, SRE, SRG

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending July 3, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending July 3, 2020

Short Term Bias: Bearish
Long Term Bias: Neutral

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ and Dow. The S&P is similar to the DOW and therefore not included.

While the indices started the week with bullish intentions, by the end of the week, all three indices had faded and closed lower, week over week. The NASDAQ, while challenging the lower bounds of its regression channel, managed to stay within it and maintained it bullish trend. The Dow and S&P, however, have turned decidedly bearish, although neither is technically in a downtrend ... yet. The Dow, in particular looks like it is ready to take out it prior pivot low and break its trend. I will be watching the indices closely this week, and I am apprehensive about the market’s direction. Because the Dow and S&P poked through the bottom of their regression channels, and because all three indices closed the week with a dark cloud cover bar, my short term bias headed into the week is bearish. Long term, I am simply nervous about the possibility of an imminent trend change, and for this reason, my long term bias is neutral.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/tsyfs13lha...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Daily Chart for the Dow
https://www.dropbox.com/s/4vuo832lmn...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

Found a ton of short setups in my scans this weekend, which added to my bearish fears, so I’m short heavy this week. Here are the stocks I will be watching for long and short day/swing trades to start the week:
Long: CLDR, OKTA, TWOU
Short: BSGM, CADE, CARG, CNC, DB, DDOG, EDIT, FL, IMUX, LX, SFL

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending July 10, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending July 10, 2020

Short Term Bias: Neutral
Long Term Bias: Bullish

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ and Dow. The S&P is somewhere between the other two indexes and I have included a chart for it.

The indices bounced off their lower regression channel boundaries and headed higher with all three indices ending up higher week-over-week. There are some significant divergences between the indices with the NASDAQ continuing to show bullishness while the S&P, and particularly the Dow, are showing a lot weakness even in their rallies. I’m just not sure what make of this, and I’ve given up trying to guess when the markets will rollover. As long as the NASDAQ and tech stocks continue to buck the weakness of the other two indices, I believe there will be bullish plays. The problem, however, is that many of the best stocks, i.e. the stocks that are consistently making new highs, are either basing at their highs or shooting up and moving far away from their moving averages. This makes it difficult to get decent entries or at least less risky ones. So I continue to trade cautiously buying a few stocks at or near their highs in the hopes that there is some steam left in this rally. The NASDAQ will tell the tale, so I will be watching that index closely. So far, the NASDAQ has stayed firmly within its regression channel and continues to make higher pivot lows and higher pivot highs. For this reason, my long term bias is back to bullish. The NASDAQ is approaching the upper boundary of its regression channel, however, and so a slight pullback here might be forthcoming. For this reason my short term bias is neutral. One thing I should note is that when the NASDAQ bounces off the bottom of its channel, it seems to be the best time to enter long positions.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/pfkgsdri6sqliz2/Photo%20Jul%2005%2C%209%2040%2009%20AM.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Daily Chart for the Dow:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/zi85265y21hztbd/Photo%20Jul%2005%2C%209%2035%2041%20AM.jpg?dl=0

I found a lot of long setups this week that I liked probably because of the strong week the NASDAQ had. I may have to prune these down after market open on Monday. Here are the stocks I will be watching:
Long: AAPL, CGNX, GH, LVGO, MASI, MELI, NET, STAA, ZS
Short: JCOM, PBH

Good luck with your trading and investing.