BlueWolf’s Weekly Market Sentiment (New and Improved with Better Flavor!)

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending July 17, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending July 17, 2020
Short Term Bias: Bullish
Long Term Bias: Bullish

I have included annotated daily charts for the NASDAQ, Dow, and S&P because of the divergences in these three indices.

It was an interesting week as the three indices continued their divergence. The NASDAQ was hands down the most bullish as it continued moving up within its long term regression channel, pegging itself to the upper boundary. The Dow showed the greatest divergence from the NASDAQ as it seems to have transitioned into a symmetrical triangle, basically a sideways consolidation pattern. The S&P also went into a sideways base for the week, but seems to have transitioned into a shallower but still bullish up trend. The NASDAQ and S&P both finished up, week-over-week, but the Dow, underscoring its bearish divergence, finished down. Despite all these differences, I am beginning to come to terms with the divergences, which I attribute to COVID-19.

There are only 30 companies in the DOW index, and this index contains a number of companies that have either a retail presence or a reliance on retail channels and would have therefore been impacted by COVID-19. Since it only has 30 companies, it only takes a little perturbation to skew the index. Similarly, the S&P has a large compliment of companies with the same dependencies on retail channels. Since this index has 500 companies, however, the effects have been more muted. The NASDAQ, on the other hand, with its heavy reliance on tech and with its collection of over 3,300 companies, seems to have weathered the COVID-19 epidemic better than the other indices. Basically, tech is leading the way right now.

Having said all that, what are my biases heading into the new week? Well, I am going to bet more on the NASDAQ and S&P, both of which remain bullish in the short and long term. My short and long term bias is therefore bullish.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/fytkibn8rs...02020.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Daily Chart for the Dow:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/h7h0kt5z9i...02020.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Daily Chart for the S&P:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/li4lktkcex...02020.jpg?dl=0

I didn’t find many setups that I loved this week, so I will have to refine my list early on based on how the week starts. Here are the stocks I will be watching to start the week:
Long: ABMD, AMT, BNTX, CLDR, MELI, RVLV, STAA
Short: MAXR, NBR

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending July 24, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending July 24, 2020

Short Term Bias: Bullish
Long Term Bias: Bullish

I have included annotated daily charts for the NASDAQ and Dow. The S&P is again very similar to the DOW, and I have therefore not included a separate chart for it.

The good news is that things are looking bullish in all three indices, although there are major divergences in all three indices. The NASDAQ gapped up to make a new high at the start of the week, but then faded to finished lower, week-over-week. Still, the NASDAQ remains the most bullish of the three indices. The S&P and Dow both traded higher this week with both indices finishing higher, week-over-week. The Dow, which is the least bullish of the three indices is nevertheless approaching a golden cross in which the 50 day SMA crosses up over the 200 day SMA. The S&P just recently had a golden cross. A golden cross is usually considered a major buying signal. I’m a little hesitant to completely agree that this is a major buy signal right now, however, because the NASDAQ has already been trending up for quite a while and the S&P is currently also trending up with its shorter term moving averages already sitting above the 200 day SMA. Still, there is no denying that the DOW is now trading bullishly along with the other indices. For that reason my short and long term bias are both bullish.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/ri9jnxiixr...02020.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Daily Chart for the Dow:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/pn7198xag4...02020.jpg?dl=0

I found a few setups that I liked for day and swing trading, but not too may. Right now, I am actually focused on getting into more buy and hold positions, and I have a number of long term (LT) watchlist stocks that I will be looking to buy this week (for a complete list of my LT watchlist stocks, please see my posts in the “Stocks for the Long Term” thread). Here’s a note regarding one stock that appears on my ST long watchlist this week, TBIO. This stock came up on my scans last Tuesday, and I tried to swing trade it that same day. It started to go my way on Wednesday, but then pulled back on Thursday, so I closed the short term (ST) position with a slight gain. I bring this stocks up because I really like the pattern. It still looks like it is going higher. Granted, it did form an island top recently, and it is sort basing at the low, but the like these rounded bottoms at an area of support intrigue me and, more often that not, produce gains. The stock resumed its move up on Friday on an uptick in volume and regained my interest for this week. Here are the stock on my ST and LT trade watchlists to start the week:
ST Long: AES, ICPT, SPAQ, TBIO
ST Short: NKLA, PEB, RLJ
LT Long: AYX, CRSP, CRWD, DDOG, EXPI, FIVN, FSLY, HUBS, MELI, NET, OKTA, SDGR, TTD

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending July 31, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending July 31, 2020

Short Term Bias: Bullish
Long Term Bias: Bullish

I have included annotated daily charts for the NASDAQ and Dow. The S&P is again very similar to the DOW, and I have therefore not included a separate chart for it.

Despite the pullbacks this week, with all three indices closing lower week-over-week, the signs are still bullish. The S&P and Dow are trading well within their regression channels and are looking more and more bullish every day. In contrast, the NASDAQ traded down into the lower boundary of its regression channel, but it bounced off this boundary and continues to make higher pivot highs and higher pivot lows. For these reasons, my long term bias remains bullish. While the S&P and Dow are trading in the upper half of their regression channels, but the NASDAQ ended the week right at the lower boundary of its channel. I am therefore expecting a bounce to the upside. For that reason, barring any bad news to open the market on Monday, my short term bias is bullish.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/0azisq4b6v...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Daily Chart for the Dow:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/pheidgwpq9...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

I saw quite a few bearish setups in my scans this weekend, although many of them were on my broker’s Hard-to-Borrow (HB) list thereby eliminating any chance of shorting them (I particularly liked SRNE, but can’t short it). I don’t have a big list this week, but here are the stocks I will be watching to start the week:
Long: CAPR, IQ, LRN
Short: AEO, CZR, KIM, PK, WDFC
Possible LT additions: CRSP, REGN, SFIX, ZS

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending Aug 7, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending Aug 7, 2020

Short Term Bias: Bullish
Long Term Bias: Bullish

I have included annotated daily charts for the NASDAQ, Dow, and S&P.

While all three indices remain bullish, the Dow continues to diverge the most as the NASDAQ and S&P finished up for the week while the Dow did not. The NASDAQ continues to be the most bullish of the three indices by far, making new all time highs as it moves up. The Dow and S&P have not yet reclaimed all the territory lost since their February all time highs, although the S&P looks poised to make a run. One positive note for the Dow is that it seems ready to form a golden cross on the daily. Perhaps this portends a more bullish near term future for the Dow. The X factor for all of this, however, is the continued, looming threat of COVID-19. A couple of pieces of bad COVID-19 or economic data could easily break the bullish momentum and send the indices tumbling. Barring that, the indices all look bullish, so both my short term and long term bias remains bullish.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/8p4undkfe0...02020.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Daily Chart for the Dow:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/oule2c2mwv...02020.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Daily Chart for the S&P
https://www.dropbox.com/s/a5p76mzxld...02020.jpg?dl=0

There weren’t a lot of sweet setups this week, but here are some stocks I will be watching to start the week:
Long: CNXM, PI
Short: CLVS, FLIR
Possible LT additions: CRM, CRSP, NVDA, PANW, ROKU, WIX, ZS

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Something has come up, so I need to skip the update this week. I’ll be back next week.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending Aug 21, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending Aug 21, 2020

Short Term Bias: Neutral
Long Term Bias: Bullish

I have included annotated daily charts for the NASDAQ and Dow. The S&P is similar to the Dow and therefore not included.

In a bit of a reversal over the last two weeks, the Dow and S&P are now showing strength and looking like they are poised to challenge their all-time highs. The NASDAQ recently set an all time high, but since then has reversed slightly and is now showing a little bit of weakness. Because all three indices are well within their up-trending regression channels, my long term bias remains bullish. The ambiguity of the NASDAQ signals, however, despite the bullishness of the Dow and S&P have me a little apprehensive in the short term and my short term bias is therefore neutral. This week’s action in the NASDAQ should clear up its intentions moving forward, so it will be interesting to watch.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/end6eblotx...02020.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Daily Chart for the Dow:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/5vczhjf5wh...02020.jpg?dl=0

I saw very few setups that I liked this week and I am cautious about adding any new positions, so I have short lists this week. Here are the stocks I will be watching to start the week:
Long: CNXM, EBON, ETRN
Short: BTAI
Possible LT additions: AAPL

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending Aug 28, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending Aug 28, 2020

Short Term Bias: Bullish
Long Term Bias: Bullish

I have included annotated daily charts for the NASDAQ. I have not included charts for theS&P or Dow, which are both starting to realign with the NASDAQ, although the Dow remains the least bullish of the three.

All three indices remain firmly entrenched within bullish uptrends, and the NASDAQ and S&P both made new highs this week. The Dow is languishing a bit, but it is basing and looks poised to make a new high itself. For this reason, my long term bias remains bullish. The S&P is pegged to the top of its regression channel, but the NASDAQ is sitting right at the midpoint of its channel and the Dow base is at its recent high. Because of this, my short term bias is bullish.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/89me6ndmvb...02020.jpg?dl=0

I saw a number of nice short setups, but, unfortunately, all of them were on the hard-to-borrow (HB) list. What I was left with wasn’t all that compelling, but here are the stocks I will be watching to start the week:
Long: ARLO, CRDF, SPT
Short: CPE, KNDI, OPRA
Possible LT additions: *NNOX

* = IPO

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending Sep 4, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending Sep 4, 2020

Short Term Bias: Neutral
Long Term Bias: Bullish

I have included annotated daily charts for the NASDAQ. I have not included charts for the S&P or Dow, which are both showing similar patterns.

All three indices had up weeks with the NASDAQ ands S&P continuing to make new all-time highs. Even the Dow is looking more and more bullish and is now just 1,000 points away from its all-time high from February. For these reasons, my long term bias remains bullish. The NASDAQ did form a doji on Friday, which when combined with its base near the top of it’s regression channel, gives me some room for caution going into the next week. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some consolidation of recent gains or even a minor pullback. For this reason, my short term bias this week is neutral.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/aymcvewm17...02020.jpg?dl=0

Once again, I didn’t come up with a lot of good setups this week for short term trading, but here are some stocks I will be watching to start the week:
Long: ALK, SPT, WDC
Short: LI, W
Possible LT additions: -
Interesting IPOs: LMND

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Sorry, no market sentiment this week. I’ve been busy all weekend in the sweltering So Cal heat.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending Sep 18, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending Sep 18, 2020

Short Term Bias: Bearish
Long Term Bias: Bearish

I have included annotated daily charts for the NASDAQ and Dow. The S&P is more similar to the NASDAQ than the Dow and I have not therefore included chart for it.

Following the mini crash of all three indices on Friday a week ago, the indices spent last week consolidating around a low and looking like there will be more to come. While the NASDAQ and S&P clearly broke out of their upward regression channels to the downside, the Dow is technically still well within its bullish channel. Like the other two indices, however, it looks poised to move lower over the next week and possibly longer. For these reasons both my long and short term biases are bearish.

The big question here is how far this correction will take the indices. Even though there has been a fair amount of downward movement over the last 7 trading days, we are still sitting at a modest 23.6% retrace level, which indicates that there is likely more to come over at least the next week or so.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/au27hkgkec...02020.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Daily Chart for the Dow:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/1s86hlyvso...02020.jpg?dl=0

I found almost no decent setups in my scans this weekend, and I am not looking to get back into any long term positions in bulk yet, so my list is lite this week. Here are some stocks I will be watching to start the week:
Long: NTR, TXG
Short: FOLD, GDS, GRWG, NKLA
Possible LT additions: INSP, NVCR, QDEL, ZUO
Interesting IPOs: -

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending Sep 25, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending Sep 25, 2020

Short Term Bias: Bearish
Long Term Bias: Neutral

I have included annotated daily charts for the NASDAQ and Dow. The S&P is more similar to the NASDAQ than the Dow and I have not therefore included chart for it.

All three of the indices are currently in a state of mini consolidation, although the NASDAQ and S&P are in a correction while the Dow remains within its regression channel. There are little signs here and there that indicate the indices might be headed lower, and for this reason, my near term bias is bearish. The fact that the corrections for both the NASDAQ and S&P are still shallow and holding at bullish retrace levels, however, has me more cautious, hence neutral, for the longer term.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/3o5csir80w...02020.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Daily Chart for the Dow:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/dzdfml1n9c...02020.jpg?dl=0

I found a few short term short setups that I liked this week along with a handful of short term long setups. Here are some stocks I will be watching to start the week:
Long: BLFS, KNL, RVP
Short: BLMN, HT, ONEW, TMDX
Possible LT additions: CRWD, NVTA, QDEL, ZM
Interesting IPOs: SNOW

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending Oct 2, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending Oct 2, 2020

Short Term Bias: Nuetral
Long Term Bias: Neutral

I have included annotated daily charts for the NASDAQ and Dow. The S&P is similar to the NASDAQ and I have therefore not included a chart for it.

The Dow broke down and out of its regression channel this week and has now joined the NASDAQ and S&P in correction mode. All three major indices are currently in mini consolidation mode, and it is unclear where they will head from here. For this reason, both my short and long term bias is neutral. Although they are all technically in downtrends, they could just as easily break out to the upside or downside from the current pause. We just have to wait and see and be prepared to play the market accordingly.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/80fyhhz6hn...02020.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Daily Chart for the Dow:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/egolbxvfbm...20%09.jpg?dl=0

I didn’t find very many setups I liked for short term trading this week, but I did make a rather long list of stocks that I believe can be played for longer term holds should the market breakaway to the upside . Here are the stocks I will be watching to start the week:
Long: TXG
Short: RYN, TUP
Possible LT additions: AAPL, COUP, DOCU, MDLA, MSFT, NVTA, PINS, SMAR, TDOC, TWLO, WDAY, WORK, ZM, ZS, ZUO
Interesting IPOs: CMPS

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[enhancebeginner]

Terrific, i love reading this

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending Oct 9, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending Oct 9, 2020

Short Term Bias: Mildly Bearish
Long Term Bias: Neutral

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. The Dow and S&P are now behaving similarly to the NASDAQ and I have therefore not included a chart for them.

So far, the indices are holding at a very bullish retrace level. If this level holds and the market starts to move up again, it is very likely that the indices will make new highs and then some. It is unclear, however, that the market is ready to start moving up. The indices are all in a sideways consolidation right now, and this consolidation is occurring at a recent low, which is usually a bearish indication. When you’re in a consolidation, though, anything can happen. The market is basically deciding what to do from here. For this reason, my long term bias is neutral. Because of all the bearish patterns I saw in stocks while I was doing my scans, my short term bias is mildly bearish.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/5rb2ngjl8u...02020.jpg?dl=0

It was scant pickings this week for setups. I didn’t see any long setups I liked to start the week, and I only found a few short setups. Here are the stocks I will be watching to start the week:
Long: (none)
Short: EXEL, ITCI, TSLA
Possible LT additions: RDFN, TDOC
Interesting IPOs: SUMO

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending Oct 16, 2020

Market sentiment for week ending Oct 16, 2020

Short Term Bias: Bullish
Long Term Bias: Bullish

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. The Dow and S&P are now behaving similarly to the NASDAQ and I have therefore not included a chart for them.

The indices came out of their consolidation patterns this week and headed higher. All three indices bounced off a very shallow retrace level, which is a sign of real bullishness in the market. I believe the indices, with the possible exception of the DOW, are headed towards new highs. This has encouraged me to add positions so that I can participate in the rally. I am still a little apprehensive, though, as I believe that the market is overdue for a big correction. There are no signs of any such correction right now, however, so for the time being my bias, both long and short term, is bullish.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/8jnzdd8fq0...02020.jpg?dl=0

Didn’t find too many short term trading setups I liked this week. I did see a lot of stocks that were up big and somewhat extended from their moving averages, but it is risky to open a position in such stocks, and so I have avoided them. Here are the stocks I will be watching to start the week:
Long: BILI, CHWY, DT, PBH
Short: EHTH
Possible LT additions: AMZN, BIGC, GOOG, IPOC, LMND, MSFT, PANW, PINS, RDFN, SDGR, WD, ZM
Interesting IPOs:

Good luck with your trading and investing.