Rules for Pick of The Year (PoTY) 2023

[jiesen]

Not a bad year for the markets overall, with a 15% gain in the S&P stocks from Jan to Dec, and a whopping 35% rise in the NASDAQ! Too bad only 3 of us are able to beat the S&P with our POTY picks... I bet next year we will do better!

[BlueWolf]

2023 PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Dec 8

The market continued its consolidation this week, and as a result, most of our picks remained pretty static. In a minor disappointment, Tiedyed’s AUTH dipped just below the break even point leaving us with five picks in the green. There is a silver lining, though, as Antioch’s SONY moved up to hover just below the break even line putting us into a position to soon have seven picks in the green. As for the leaderboard, things remained the same with Louetta’s NVDA still in orbit followed by HUBS in second and Mr. Market’s RAVE in third. Let’s see which way we break out of the consolidation over the coming week(s). My bias is neutral for short term trading.

	2023 PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Dec 8
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
1	Louetta	NVDA	Long	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 475.06		147.92%
2	Blue Wolf	HUBS	Long	1/30/2023	$348.99	$ 502.04		43.86%
3	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	1/30/2023	$290.27	$ 392.17		35.11%
4	Mr. Market	RAVE	Long	1/30/2023	$1.68	$ 2.20		30.95%
5	S&P	SPY	Long	1/30/2023	$400.59	$ 460.20		14.88%
6	Dow	DIA	Long	1/30/2023	$337.06	$ 363.12		7.73%
7	Antioch’s Dad	$Treasury Bill$	N/A	1/30/2023	$1.00	$ 1.04		3.89%
8	Minni17	KLIC	Long	1/30/2023	$50.54	$ 51.89		2.67%
9	Antioch	SONY	Long	1/30/2023	$89.33	$ 89.30		-0.03%
10	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	1/30/2023	$8.94	$ 8.86		-0.89%
11	BillyJoe	SQ	Long	1/30/2023	$79.79	$ 69.17		-13.31%
12	Peanuts	DDD	Long	1/30/2023	$10.30	$ 5.92		-42.52%
13	RickFlyBoy	ZIM	Long	1/30/2023	$18.72	$ 7.36		-60.68%
14	Jiesen	OMGA	Long	1/30/2023	$7.70	$ 2.29		-70.26%
15	Maximo	IPA	Long	1/30/2023	$4.51	$ 1.13		-74.92%
16	JohnHenry	NVDA	Short	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 475.06		-147.92%

[BlueWolf]

2023 PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Dec 1

It was an interesting week to be sure. The NASDAQ and S&P mostly consolidated their gains while the Dow exploded at the end of the week for a 2.3% gain in just two days. All of this had a moderate effect on the standings, but the big news is that we now have six picks in the green. Huzzah! As for the leader board, Louetta’s NVDA remains our unquestioned leader, but there was a change as HUBS leadfrogged Mr. Market’s RAVE to take over second as RAVE settled into third. Where do we go from here? Well, normally it’s hard to tell after a consolidation. The longer the indices remain in consolidation mode, the higher the chance it will break downward, but a short stay at these levels is most likely to act as a base for more gains. Here’s the thing, those two wide green bars on the Dow are very bullish, especially since Friday’s bar closed near the high so overall I remain bullish. Oh well, here’s my mantra … We’ll see.

	2023 PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Dec 1
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
1	Louetta	NVDA	Long	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 467.65		144.05%
2	Blue Wolf	HUBS	Long	1/30/2023	$348.99	$ 516.97		48.13%
3	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	1/30/2023	$290.27	$ 389.94		34.34%
4	Mr. Market	RAVE	Long	1/30/2023	$1.68	$ 2.25		33.93%
5	S&P	SPY	Long	1/30/2023	$400.59	$ 459.10		14.61%
6	Dow	DIA	Long	1/30/2023	$337.06	$ 363.05		7.71%
7	Antioch’s Dad	$Treasury Bill$	N/A	1/30/2023	$1.00	$ 1.04		3.89%
8	Minni17	KLIC	Long	1/30/2023	$50.54	$ 52.46		3.80%
9	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	1/30/2023	$8.94	$ 9.06		1.34%
10	Antioch	SONY	Long	1/30/2023	$89.33	$ 86.14		-3.57%
11	BillyJoe	SQ	Long	1/30/2023	$79.79	$ 65.04		-18.49%
12	Peanuts	DDD	Long	1/30/2023	$10.30	$ 5.80		-43.69%
13	RickFlyBoy	ZIM	Long	1/30/2023	$18.72	$ 7.62		-59.29%
14	Maximo	IPA	Long	1/30/2023	$4.51	$ 1.70		-62.26%
15	Jiesen	OMGA	Long	1/30/2023	$7.70	$ 2.24		-70.91%
16	JohnHenry	NVDA	Short	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 467.65		-144.05%

[BlueWolf]

Don't know whether you ever listen to Jim Cramer on CNBC, but he re-named his dog Nvidia a number of years ago, long enough ago that the dog has now passed.

I told one of my doctors to buy NVDA and hold onto it a number of years ago. Don’t know if he ever pulled the trigger. I’ll have to ask him next time I see him. NVDA is an amazing story. Basically they were building faster co-processors for graphics applications and people recognized the potential of the number crunching capabilities for AI, which opened a whole new market for them.

[Louetta]

There are a lot of chip companies on the list, which is no surprise given the recent explosion in AI. I know that’s a big reason for NVDA’s success and the reason I bought it to hold myself several years ago.

Don't know whether you ever listen to Jim Cramer on CNBC, but he re-named his dog Nvidia a number of years ago, long enough ago that the dog has now passed.

[BlueWolf]

I think this is appropriate here since we're trying to predict stock performance. I hear on CNBC all the time folks bemoaning how 7 stocks have dominated the averages. And they have, as many averages are market cap weighted. But, I also heard on CNBC, if you list the S&P 500 stocks by price performance this year you have to go all the way down to number 41 to get all 7 super stocks. Implying there are 34 (41 - 7) stocks which have price performance better than at least one of the super seven. The idea is one might then look at these 34 to find good candidates going forward for performance.

Here's a site which provides the necessary data:

https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/performance

There are a lot of chip companies on the list, which is no surprise given the recent explosion in AI. I know that’s a big reason for NVDA’s success and the reason I bought it to hold myself several years ago.

[Louetta]

I think this is appropriate here since we're trying to predict stock performance. I hear on CNBC all the time folks bemoaning how 7 stocks have dominated the averages. And they have, as many averages are market cap weighted. But, I also heard on CNBC, if you list the S&P 500 stocks by price performance this year you have to go all the way down to number 41 to get all 7 super stocks. Implying there are 34 (41 - 7) stocks which have price performance better than at least one of the super seven. The idea is one might then look at these 34 to find good candidates going forward for performance.

Here's a site which provides the necessary data:

https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/performance

[BlueWolf]

2023 PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Nov 24

I’m back! I wish I had a good excuse for missing last week, but I simply forgot. Oh well, let’s get up to date, shan’t we. The market went on a bullish rampage over the last two weeks, gapping up a week ago and then continuing to crawl upward. As a result, we now have five picks in the green again! Woo hoo! Welcome to the green club, Tiedyed1's AUPH. As for the leaderboard, Louetta’s NVDA continues to rule the roost from the stratosphere followed by Mr. Market’s RAVE in second and HUBS in third. So where do we go from here? Well, IMHO, all three indices still look pretty bullish to me so I expect more upside, at least in the near term. Hopefully, this will pull a few more of our picks into the green. Keep your fingers crossed.

	2023 PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Nov 24
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
1	Louetta	NVDA	Long	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 477.76		149.33%
2	Mr. Market	RAVE	Long	1/30/2023	$1.68	$ 2.45		45.83%
3	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	1/30/2023	$290.27	$ 389.51		34.19%
4	Blue Wolf	HUBS	Long	1/30/2023	$348.99	$ 467.75		34.03%
5	S&P	SPY	Long	1/30/2023	$400.59	$ 455.30		13.66%
6	Dow	DIA	Long	1/30/2023	$337.06	$ 353.80		4.97%
7	Antioch’s Dad	$Treasury Bill$	N/A	1/30/2023	$1.00	$ 1.04		3.89%
8	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	1/30/2023	$8.94	$ 9.17		2.57%
9	Minni17	KLIC	Long	1/30/2023	$50.54	$ 50.25		-0.57%
10	Antioch	SONY	Long	1/30/2023	$89.33	$ 86.64		-3.01%
11	BillyJoe	SQ	Long	1/30/2023	$79.79	$ 59.65		-25.24%
12	Peanuts	DDD	Long	1/30/2023	$10.30	$ 5.38		-47.77%
13	RickFlyBoy	ZIM	Long	1/30/2023	$18.72	$ 6.90		-63.14%
14	Maximo	IPA	Long	1/30/2023	$4.51	$ 1.30		-71.14%
15	Jiesen	OMGA	Long	1/30/2023	$7.70	$ 1.89		-75.52%
16	JohnHenry	NVDA	Short	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 477.76		-149.33%

[jiesen]

Jiesen, My son was living in Columbus ,Ohio in early 2006. He was always raving about Chipotle. I said "what is Chipotle". He explained, but since I never ate Mexican food or knew anything about it I wasn't interested and the stock was around 40 , kind of high for a company that was a startup as far as I was concerned. It took another 10 years or so before Chipotle made it to my area, by then it was too late to buy at over 400.

-----------------billy

Boy talk about a coulda woulda shoulda!

[billyjoe]

Jiesen, My son was living in Columbus ,Ohio in early 2006. He was always raving about Chipotle. I said "what is Chipotle". He explained, but since I never ate Mexican food or knew anything about it I wasn't interested and the stock was around 40 , kind of high for a company that was a startup as far as I was concerned. It took another 10 years or so before Chipotle made it to my area, by then it was too late to buy at over 400.

-----------------billy

[jiesen]

If Chipotle can go from 500 to 2000 in just a few years, NVDA can probably do the same... Of course that gives NVDA about a 5 trillion dollar valuation, but still.

[billyjoe]

Many analysts see NVDA going to 700 without much difficulty.

----------------billy

[BlueWolf]

2023 PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Nov 10

It was an interesting week as all three indices broke out of their regression channels to the upside, ending, for now, the steep descending trend the market was in. Despite the positive signals from the market, there was little change in the standings. Louetta’s wonder stock, NVDA, churned even more to the upside, cementing its grip on first place like a bear latching on to a sirloin stake. In second, Mr. Market’s RAVE continues to make a strong showing followed by HUBS in third place. Where do we go from here? Well, I would have said the market will do some consolidation here, but Friday’s bullish covering bar on all three indices portends more near term upside, so that’s my bias. The thing is, with all the situations going on in the world today, bad news is always lurking around the corner so be vigilant if you’re going long.

	2023 PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Nov 10
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
1	Louetta	NVDA	Long	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 483.35		152.24%
2	Mr. Market	RAVE	Long	1/30/2023	$1.68	$ 2.50		48.81%
3	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	1/30/2023	$290.27	$ 378.39		30.36%
4	Blue Wolf	HUBS	Long	1/30/2023	$348.99	$ 428.92		22.90%
5	S&P	SPY	Long	1/30/2023	$400.59	$ 440.61		9.99%
6	Antioch’s Dad	$Treasury Bill$	N/A	1/30/2023	$1.00	$ 1.04		3.89%
7	Dow	DIA	Long	1/30/2023	$337.06	$ 343.01		1.77%
8	Antioch	SONY	Long	1/30/2023	$89.33	$ 85.94		-3.79%
9	Minni17	KLIC	Long	1/30/2023	$50.54	$ 44.91		-11.14%
10	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	1/30/2023	$8.94	$ 7.74		-13.42%
11	BillyJoe	SQ	Long	1/30/2023	$79.79	$ 51.50		-35.46%
12	Peanuts	DDD	Long	1/30/2023	$10.30	$ 4.19		-59.32%
13	RickFlyBoy	ZIM	Long	1/30/2023	$18.72	$ 7.39		-60.52%
14	Maximo	IPA	Long	1/30/2023	$4.51	$ 1.56		-65.37%
15	Jiesen	OMGA	Long	1/30/2023	$7.70	$ 1.72		-77.66%
16	JohnHenry	NVDA	Short	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 483.35		-152.24%

[jiesen]

Some other reasons for the surge last week might be just being oversold plus the Treasury announcing that after this month there will be a decrease in the amount of bills/bonds sold and this will help keep interest rates from rising further, though how this can work out given the expanding deficit escapes me. I would think you are quite correct that this week will tell us something important about where we are headed. A lot of the recent economic news has not been encouraging.

I don't think it can work either. If they don't sell more bonds to raise funds, then the money will need to be raised another way, and the most obvious way to do that is simply to print more of it. Really that's the only choice they have once the debt reaches levels that make it impossible to service by taxes alone. I believe with the higher interest rates now, being more than double what they were a couple years ago we may already be there. If you thought inflation was bad last year, just wait until the printing presses really get going...

[Louetta]

It was a surprisingly upbeat week for the market, and dare I say, a lot more upbeat than the consolidation I was expecting. Bad news on job creation (downward interest pressure) and an announcement by the Fed that it was not raising rates seemed to do the trick. Were not out of the grasp of the bear, however. We (barely) made a higher pivot high on the Dow, but on both the NASDAQ and the S&P this was not the case. It was a good week for short term trading to the upside, to be sure, but whether it’s time to enter longer term long positions remains to be seen.

As for the contest, the leaderboard remains the same. Louetta’s NVDA continues to dominate followed by Mr. Market’s RAVE and then HUBS. This next week ought to be an important one for setting the tone for the rest of the year. Let’s check back in a week and see what tricks them market has up its sleeve.

Some other reasons for the surge last week might be just being oversold plus the Treasury announcing that after this month there will be a decrease in the amount of bills/bonds sold and this will help keep interest rates from rising further, though how this can work out given the expanding deficit escapes me. I would think you are quite correct that this week will tell us something important about where we are headed. A lot of the recent economic news has not been encouraging.