Rules for Pick of The Year (PoTY) 2023

[BlueWolf]

Extremely bad bar on the indices today. This does not look good folks.

[BlueWolf]

Here are the cases for a head and shoulders versus a cup and handle. I used the S&P because the patterns were cleanest there.

Cup and Handle:

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/uqz9r0o6qr6o3fbd9vmo7/2023-09-13-S-P-Cup-and-Handle.jpg?rlkey=p4v19p91t79pcolfxjn4r9bcx&dl=0

Head and Shoulders:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/xlq1y...mrmjfmozh&dl=0

[antioch6]

I'm excited because Bluewolf is telling me the exact opposite of what I just heard; a money manager said we're forming a bullish cup and handle, but we need a move above the handle line before buying. This just proves to me pattern reading is subjective and can be different depending on the time frame. I would personally side closer to BlueWolf, and say we have lost momentum going up, and I guess it could go either way depending on what riskier buyers do.

I'd like to stay hopeful as Wolf suggests; the fact is market's are going sideways, and it's impossible to predict which way momentum will show up. The conclusion for me is pick your stocks and use a stop loss if momentum breaks below Wolf's neckline. I've tried being hopeful and bought PATH, but overall the top stocks are too high, have a high p/e, and are losing momentum. The next batch of top stocks are going sideways, but I doubt they will get enough attention to move higher; the odds favor a down move in the market. The only people that can take this market higher are the people who bought it in 2020, 2021 and sent everything higher. After 2022, most of these people are less likely to make the same mistake, and that's why I think we're in a sideways market.

[BlueWolf]

2023 PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Sept 8, 2023

Ugh, it was a bit of a nasty week for the market. All of our picks as well as the indices were down. There was no change on the leaderboard, however, with Louetta’s NVDA, HUBS, and Mr. Market’s RAVE in first, second, and third respectively. What concerns me at this point is that we have a head and shoulders forming on all three indices. Of course, it’s nothing to worry about until the neckline is broken, but I’m going to keep a careful eye out. Keep the faith, pickers.

	2023 PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Sept 8, 2023
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
1	Louetta	NVDA	Long	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 455.72		137.82%
2	Blue Wolf	HUBS	Long	1/30/2023	$348.99	$ 537.19		53.93%
3	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	1/30/2023	$290.27	$ 372.58		28.36%
4	Mr. Market	RAVE	Long	1/30/2023	$1.68	$ 2.05		22.02%
5	S&P	SPY	Long	1/30/2023	$400.59	$ 445.52		11.22%
6	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	1/30/2023	$8.94	$ 9.83		9.96%
7	Antioch’s Dad	$Treasury Bill$	N/A	1/30/2023	$1.00	$ 1.04		3.89%
8	Dow	DIA	Long	1/30/2023	$337.06	$ 346.51		2.80%
9	Minni17	KLIC	Long	1/30/2023	$50.54	$ 49.50		-2.06%
10	Antioch	SONY	Long	1/30/2023	$89.33	$ 84.22		-5.72%
11	BillyJoe	SQ	Long	1/30/2023	$79.79	$ 53.08		-33.48%
12	RickFlyBoy	ZIM	Long	1/30/2023	$18.72	$ 11.44		-38.89%
13	Peanuts	DDD	Long	1/30/2023	$10.30	$ 5.27		-48.83%
14	Maximo	IPA	Long	1/30/2023	$4.51	$ 1.97		-56.27%
15	Jiesen	OMGA	Long	1/30/2023	$7.70	$ 3.26		-57.66%
16	JohnHenry	NVDA	Short	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 455.72		-137.82%

[BlueWolf]

2023 PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Sept 1, 2023

We had a decent week in market, which for a time at least, allayed my fears about being on a precipice. It’s very important, though, that the indices take out their prior highs now. A rollover here would be very bad signal especially since the 20 day SMA has crossed down over the 40 day SMA on both the NASDAQ and the S&P and is flirting with a crossover on the DOW. As for the contest, the leaderboard remains unchanged. Louetta’s rocket ship, NVDA, remains in 1st, HUBS is in second, and the huge one’s RAVE is in third. Gonna be an interesting week. Stay tuned, pickers.

	2023 PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Sept 1, 2023
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
1	Louetta	NVDA	Long	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 485.09		153.15%
2	Blue Wolf	HUBS	Long	1/30/2023	$348.99	$ 551.61		58.06%
3	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	1/30/2023	$290.27	$ 377.59		30.08%
4	Mr. Market	RAVE	Long	1/30/2023	$1.68	$ 2.14		27.38%
5	S&P	SPY	Long	1/30/2023	$400.59	$ 451.19		12.63%
6	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	1/30/2023	$8.94	$ 9.46		5.82%
7	Antioch’s Dad	$Treasury Bill$	N/A	1/30/2023	$1.00	$ 1.04		3.89%
8	Dow	DIA	Long	1/30/2023	$337.06	$ 348.98		3.54%
9	Minni17	KLIC	Long	1/30/2023	$50.54	$ 52.08		3.05%
10	Antioch	SONY	Long	1/30/2023	$89.33	$ 85.26		-4.56%
11	BillyJoe	SQ	Long	1/30/2023	$79.79	$ 58.17		-27.10%
12	RickFlyBoy	ZIM	Long	1/30/2023	$18.72	$ 12.24		-34.62%
13	Peanuts	DDD	Long	1/30/2023	$10.30	$ 6.22		-39.61%
14	Jiesen	OMGA	Long	1/30/2023	$7.70	$ 3.78		-50.91%
15	Maximo	IPA	Long	1/30/2023	$4.51	$ 2.03		-54.94%
16	JohnHenry	NVDA	Short	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 485.09		-153.15%

[jiesen]

I wouldn't do that, but I can tell you that 18-20 years ago we used to leave Blodgett Pool in the Harvard Stadium complex, cross the river on North Harvard, and run down Memorial Drive along the river on the Cambridge side almost to the Museum Of Science and back, bringing us within a block or two of Omega (not sure it was there then). These days, having lost access to Blodgett, one can actually find parking in the neighborhood a few blocks across from Omega (rare in Cambridge), and run along the river on Memorial Drive going back toward Harvard. Very nice. Shells (the boats they do crew in) are back on the river and the weather is ideal. Only two months now to Head Of the Charles.

Nice story, Louetta! Thanks!

[Louetta]

... snip ... so whatever you do, don't buy this and then blame me when it drops to 0!

I wouldn't do that, but I can tell you that 18-20 years ago we used to leave Blodgett Pool in the Harvard Stadium complex, cross the river on North Harvard, and run down Memorial Drive along the river on the Cambridge side almost to the Museum Of Science and back, bringing us within a block or two of Omega (not sure it was there then). These days, having lost access to Blodgett, one can actually find parking in the neighborhood a few blocks across from Omega (rare in Cambridge), and run along the river on Memorial Drive going back toward Harvard. Very nice. Shells (the boats they do crew in) are back on the river and the weather is ideal. Only two months now to Head Of the Charles.

[jiesen]

I actually feel there's real value in what OMGA is doing, and I don't believe they are burning 100's of millions of dollars just for the heck of it. While it may look like I'm trying to catch a falling knife, I am picking up some shares here for the first time at 3.5, after they've fallen 50%+ from where I picked it at the start of the contest.

Let's GOOOO OMEGA!!!

(I'm planning on holding this for 5-15 years or so, until one or two of their drugs can make it to market, and we see a $35 share price at least (or a buyout), and yes, I do know the odds are against it actually going right for me on this, so whatever you do, don't buy this and then blame me when it drops to 0!)

[BlueWolf]

2023 PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, August 25, 2023

We’re back! We have six picks in the green again after a slightly upbeat week. The leaderboard is the same, though. Louetta’s NVDA is still knocking it out of the park in first followed by HUBS in second and Mr. Market’s RAVE in third. The market is in a bit of a sideways consolidation now, which means it could move either way from here, but I am getting a bit of an edge-of-the-cliff vibe. We’ll see.

	2023 PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, August 25, 2023
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
1	Louetta	NVDA	Long	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 460.18		140.15%
2	Blue Wolf	HUBS	Long	1/30/2023	$348.99	$ 512.75		46.92%
3	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	1/30/2023	$290.27	$ 364.02		25.41%
4	Mr. Market	RAVE	Long	1/30/2023	$1.68	$ 2.02		20.24%
5	S&P	SPY	Long	1/30/2023	$400.59	$ 439.97		9.83%
6	Antioch’s Dad	$Treasury Bill$	N/A	1/30/2023	$1.00	$ 1.04		3.89%
7	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	1/30/2023	$8.94	$ 9.16		2.46%
8	Dow	DIA	Long	1/30/2023	$337.06	$ 343.50		1.91%
9	Minni17	KLIC	Long	1/30/2023	$50.54	$ 50.87		0.65%
10	Antioch	SONY	Long	1/30/2023	$89.33	$ 81.10		-9.21%
11	BillyJoe	SQ	Long	1/30/2023	$79.79	$ 55.86		-29.99%
12	RickFlyBoy	ZIM	Long	1/30/2023	$18.72	$ 11.86		-36.65%
13	Peanuts	DDD	Long	1/30/2023	$10.30	$ 6.13		-40.49%
14	Jiesen	OMGA	Long	1/30/2023	$7.70	$ 3.56		-53.77%
15	Maximo	IPA	Long	1/30/2023	$4.51	$ 1.89		-58.05%
16	JohnHenry	NVDA	Short	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 460.18		-140.15%

[BlueWolf]

Argh, we are down to five picks in the green as the market continues to nosedive. For a second week, though, the leaderboard remained unchanged with Louetta’s NVDA slaying the market in first, HUBS in second, and Mr. Market’s RAVE in 3rd. There’s a lot of downward momentum in this market, and a lot of reasons for the market to be unhappy, but let’s hope we get some good news and a trend reversal real soon.

	2023 PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, August 18, 2023
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
1	Louetta	NVDA	Long	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 432.99		125.96%
2	Blue Wolf	HUBS	Long	1/30/2023	$348.99	$ 504.93		44.68%
3	Mr. Market	RAVE	Long	1/30/2023	$1.68	$ 2.12		26.19%
4	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	1/30/2023	$290.27	$ 358.13		23.38%
5	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	1/30/2023	$8.94	$ 9.79		9.51%
6	S&P	SPY	Long	1/30/2023	$400.59	$ 436.50		8.96%
7	Antioch’s Dad	$Treasury Bill$	N/A	1/30/2023	$1.00	$ 1.04		3.89%
8	Dow	DIA	Long	1/30/2023	$337.06	$ 345.12		2.39%
9	Minni17	KLIC	Long	1/30/2023	$50.54	$ 50.10		-0.87%
10	Antioch	SONY	Long	1/30/2023	$89.33	$ 82.66		-7.47%
11	BillyJoe	SQ	Long	1/30/2023	$79.79	$ 56.88		-28.71%
12	RickFlyBoy	ZIM	Long	1/30/2023	$18.72	$ 12.40		-33.76%
13	Peanuts	DDD	Long	1/30/2023	$10.30	$ 6.47		-37.18%
14	Maximo	IPA	Long	1/30/2023	$4.51	$ 2.10		-53.39%
15	Jiesen	OMGA	Long	1/30/2023	$7.70	$ 3.27		-57.53%
16	JohnHenry	NVDA	Short	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 432.99		-125.96%

[BlueWolf]

After a mixed week in the markets, we find ourselves with one less pick in the green. ** Sigh **. Hopefully, we’ll get it back, but right now the market needs to break its downward spiral. As for the standings, there were no changes on the leaderboard. Louetta’s NVDA remains locked into first place despite a bit of a pullback. HUBS remains in second followed by Mr. Market’s RAVE in third. OK then, let’s get more picks back in the green. Come on market, giddyup and go!

	2023 PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, August 11, 2023
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
1	Louetta	NVDA	Long	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 408.55		113.21%
2	Blue Wolf	HUBS	Long	1/30/2023	$348.99	$ 507.77		45.50%
3	Mr. Market	RAVE	Long	1/30/2023	$1.68	$ 2.18		29.76%
4	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	1/30/2023	$290.27	$ 366.24		26.17%
5	S&P	SPY	Long	1/30/2023	$400.59	$ 445.65		11.25%
6	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	1/30/2023	$8.94	$ 9.50		6.26%
7	Dow	DIA	Long	1/30/2023	$337.06	$ 353.00		4.73%
8	Antioch’s Dad	$Treasury Bill$	N/A	1/30/2023	$1.00	$ 1.04		3.89%
9	Minni17	KLIC	Long	1/30/2023	$50.54	$ 51.77		2.43%
10	Antioch	SONY	Long	1/30/2023	$89.33	$ 85.58		-4.20%
11	RickFlyBoy	ZIM	Long	1/30/2023	$18.72	$ 14.26		-23.82%
12	BillyJoe	SQ	Long	1/30/2023	$79.79	$ 60.57		-24.09%
13	Peanuts	DDD	Long	1/30/2023	$10.30	$ 7.06		-31.46%
14	Maximo	IPA	Long	1/30/2023	$4.51	$ 2.33		-48.28%
15	Jiesen	OMGA	Long	1/30/2023	$7.70	$ 3.71		-51.82%
16	JohnHenry	NVDA	Short	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 408.55		-113.21%

[BlueWolf]

2023 PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, August 4, 2023

Man, was it a rough week in the market with a number of our picks getting hammered. Louetta’s NVDA remains firmly in first place with HUBS holding down second even though it took a beating. Mr. Market’s RAVE leapt back into third and is now in striking distance of second. Our hopes of having an eighth pick in the green were shattered, though, as several of our picks on the brink pulled back hard. **Sigh**. Just keep the faith, pickers, and let’s hope this pullback is just a minor correction.

	2023 PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, August 4, 2023
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
1	Louetta	NVDA	Long	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 446.80		133.17%
2	Blue Wolf	HUBS	Long	1/30/2023	$348.99	$ 483.69		38.60%
3	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	1/30/2023	$290.27	$ 372.04		28.17%
4	Mr. Market	RAVE	Long	1/30/2023	$1.68	$ 2.14		27.38%
5	S&P	SPY	Long	1/30/2023	$400.59	$ 446.81		11.54%
6	Minni17	KLIC	Long	1/30/2023	$50.54	$ 55.97		10.74%
7	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	1/30/2023	$8.94	$ 9.82		9.84%
8	Dow	DIA	Long	1/30/2023	$337.06	$ 350.65		4.03%
9	Antioch’s Dad	$Treasury Bill$	N/A	1/30/2023	$1.00	$ 1.04		3.89%
10	Antioch	SONY	Long	1/30/2023	$89.33	$ 90.19		0.96%
11	RickFlyBoy	ZIM	Long	1/30/2023	$18.72	$ 15.04		-19.66%
12	BillyJoe	SQ	Long	1/30/2023	$79.79	$ 63.52		-20.39%
13	Peanuts	DDD	Long	1/30/2023	$10.30	$ 8.04		-21.94%
14	Jiesen	OMGA	Long	1/30/2023	$7.70	$ 5.08		-34.03%
15	Maximo	IPA	Long	1/30/2023	$4.51	$ 2.27		-49.61%
16	JohnHenry	NVDA	Short	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 446.80		-133.17%

[BlueWolf]

2023 PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, July 28, 2023

We had some sideways consolidation in the markets this week, with all three major indices showing little overall movement. We did have one big mover in our picks, though, as Tiedyed1’s AUPH again leapfrogged Mr. Market’s RAVE to (re)take over 3rd place. Louetta’s NVDA is still several laps ahead in first place followed by HUBS in second, although AUPH and RAVE look poised for an assault on second. In other news, BillyJoe’s SQ keeps hovering around the break even mark and just needs a little push before we can claim eight picks in the green. The really good news is that we now have four picks beating all three indices. Nice picking, pickers. Here’s the latest standings:

	2023 PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, July 28, 2023
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
1	Louetta	NVDA	Long	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 467.50		143.97%
2	Blue Wolf	HUBS	Long	1/30/2023	$348.99	$ 556.86		59.56%
3	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	1/30/2023	$8.94	$ 12.27		37.25%
4	Mr. Market	RAVE	Long	1/30/2023	$1.68	$ 2.22		32.14%
5	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	1/30/2023	$290.27	$ 383.48		32.11%
6	Minni17	KLIC	Long	1/30/2023	$50.54	$ 59.52		17.77%
7	S&P	SPY	Long	1/30/2023	$400.59	$ 456.92		14.06%
8	Dow	DIA	Long	1/30/2023	$337.06	$ 354.48		5.17%
9	Antioch	SONY	Long	1/30/2023	$89.33	$ 93.47		4.63%
10	Antioch’s Dad	$Treasury Bill$	N/A	1/30/2023	$1.00	$ 1.04		3.89%
11	BillyJoe	SQ	Long	1/30/2023	$79.79	$ 78.36		-1.79%
12	Peanuts	DDD	Long	1/30/2023	$10.30	$ 8.68		-15.73%
13	RickFlyBoy	ZIM	Long	1/30/2023	$18.72	$ 15.22		-18.70%
14	Jiesen	OMGA	Long	1/30/2023	$7.70	$ 5.68		-26.23%
15	Maximo	IPA	Long	1/30/2023	$4.51	$ 2.62		-41.84%
16	JohnHenry	NVDA	Short	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 467.50		-143.97%

[BlueWolf]

2023 PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, July 21, 2023

The market started out gangbusters this week but then did a bit of a switch up at the end of week and most of our picks pulled back a little as a result. Still, the picks at the top of the leaderboard remain strong and there was no change in the leaderboard order. Louetta’s NVDA is still crushing it at number one followed by HUBS in second and Tiedyed1’s AUPH in third. Mr. Market’s RAVE remains just a tick behind, which leads me to believe more shakeups at the top are coming. Here’s hoping we stay strong and get a few more picks into the green soon. Here’s the current standings:

	2023 PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, July 21, 2023
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
1	Louetta	NVDA	Long	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 443.09		131.23%
2	Blue Wolf	HUBS	Long	1/30/2023	$348.99	$ 544.31		55.97%
3	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	1/30/2023	$290.27	$ 375.63		29.41%
4	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	1/30/2023	$8.94	$ 10.94		22.37%
5	Mr. Market	RAVE	Long	1/30/2023	$1.68	$ 2.03		20.83%
6	Minni17	KLIC	Long	1/30/2023	$50.54	$ 57.10		12.98%
7	S&P	SPY	Long	1/30/2023	$400.59	$ 452.18		12.88%
8	Antioch	SONY	Long	1/30/2023	$89.33	$ 93.39		4.54%
9	Dow	DIA	Long	1/30/2023	$337.06	$ 352.14		4.47%
10	Antioch’s Dad	$Treasury Bill$	N/A	1/30/2023	$1.00	$ 1.04		3.89%
11	BillyJoe	SQ	Long	1/30/2023	$79.79	$ 76.12		-4.60%
12	Peanuts	DDD	Long	1/30/2023	$10.30	$ 8.99		-12.72%
13	RickFlyBoy	ZIM	Long	1/30/2023	$18.72	$ 13.77		-26.44%
14	Jiesen	OMGA	Long	1/30/2023	$7.70	$ 5.28		-31.43%
15	Maximo	IPA	Long	1/30/2023	$4.51	$ 2.71		-39.90%
16	JohnHenry	NVDA	Short	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 443.09		-131.23%

[BlueWolf]

In case anybody is interested, I did a mock portfolio of our picks with each stock getting roughly a $10,000 position. Unfortunately, because NVDA is both long and short in our mock portfolio they cancel each other out. Our gains are pretty meager with an overall portfolio performance of only +0.57%.

2023 PotY Mock Portfolio As of 7/14/23 (~ $10,000 positions)
Stock	Open	Shares	Short/Long	Cost	Close	Value	Gain	Gain %
$Treasury Bill$	$10,000.00	1	Long	$ 10,000.00	$ 10,389.10	$ 10,389.10	$389.10	3.89%
AUPH	$8.94	1,119	Long	$ 10,003.86	$ 11.12	$ 12,443.28	$2,439.42	24.38%
DDD	$10.30	971	Long	$ 10,001.30	$ 10.07	$ 9,777.97	-$223.33	-2.23%
HUBS	$348.99	29	Long	$ 10,120.71	$ 555.36	$ 16,105.44	$5,984.73	59.13%
IPA	$4.51	2,217	Long	$ 9,998.67	$ 2.82	$ 6,251.94	-$3,746.73	-37.47%
KLIC	$50.54	198	Long	$ 10,006.92	$ 57.95	$ 11,474.10	$1,467.18	14.66%
NVDA	$191.62	52	Long	$ 9,964.24	$ 454.69	$ 23,643.88	$13,679.64	137.29%
NVDA	$191.62	52	Short	$ 23,643.88	$ 454.69	$ 9,964.24	-$13,679.64	-137.29%
OMGA	$7.70	1,299	Long	$ 10,002.30	$ 4.62	$ 6,001.38	-$4,000.92	-40.00%
RAVE	$1.68	5,952	Long	$ 9,999.36	$ 2.00	$ 11,904.00	$1,904.64	19.05%
SONY	$89.33	112	Long	$ 10,004.96	$ 92.39	$ 10,347.68	$342.72	3.43%
SQ	$79.79	125	Long	$ 9,973.75	$ 75.46	$ 9,432.50	-$541.25	-5.43%
ZIM	$18.72	534	Long	$ 9,996.48	$ 12.74	$ 6,803.16	-$3,193.32	-31.94%
Totals				$ 143,716.43		$ 144,538.67	$822.24	0.57%