Rules for Pick of The Year (PoTY) 2023

[BlueWolf]

Here are the cases for a head and shoulders versus a cup and handle. I used the S&P because the patterns were cleanest there.

Cup and Handle:

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/uqz9r0o6qr6o3fbd9vmo7/2023-09-13-S-P-Cup-and-Handle.jpg?rlkey=p4v19p91t79pcolfxjn4r9bcx&dl=0

Head and Shoulders:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/xlq1y...mrmjfmozh&dl=0

[BlueWolf]

Extremely bad bar on the indices today. This does not look good folks.

[Louetta]

Extremely bad bar on the indices today. This does not look good folks.

Non of my ETFS, Options, or mutual funds was up today. Only two stocks up: ORCL and STLA and STLA is being struck by the UAW. Speaking of auto stocks, today I learned F is down 24% over the last 10 years. Surprised me.

[billyjoe]

SQ is a real turd !

-----------billy

[jiesen]

Toyota has been doing fantastically, though!

[antioch6]

I was thinking the price was really bad but the news was good. The fed is slowing down rate hikes so next they will lower rates. The reason for caution is people have already bought expecting lower interest prices, so maybe we could go back to the October lows thinking nothing has happened. On the other side, after the government finally sends credit out, we know the upper range is between the highs of July 2023 and January 2022. We are in this October 2022 - July range and I find it hard to believe we will go back to the low, but the momentum is negative, and there are no good stocks going up today. Tomorrow might be different. I also have muted feelings about credit cycles; the last two times the government lowered rates, we saw 2008 and 2020. So, in the long run, interest rates can impact stock prices, but over 5 years or less anything can happen. Sentiment is also neutral, and maybe that's as high as it can get. p/e ratios are high around 20 and higher; if you remember October, May and June last year, everyone was overly negative. The sentiment is swinging back with prices falling. Last on the list is earnings. Earnings are growing overall mostly but there could be a recession at the middle - lower end of the market. This is always a trick for me because it's hard to look at earnings for the entire market. It falls on each company to report positive or negative numbers, so overall the earnings will be mixed. So the next step is to sell companies with negative growth as momentum continues negative, or buy companies with positive growth as the government extends credit, or a mixture of both. There is no doubt STLA is the best company in the world, but stock is going down. With the recent trend in mind, I think today is a good time to buy shares for tomorrow. STLA has been trading in a up-down-sideways-up-down-up pattern, and today is down, so the next move should be up or sideways. The worst case scenario is a crash, but you should know by tomorrow if the pattern in STLA holds. It comes down to believing in the long term, and avoid exploiting people with temporary low prices from short - term economic conditions.

[BlueWolf]

The indices are now right at the neckline of a Head & Shoulders. If things break down here the indices are very likely to plunge. There just don’t seem to be any buyers, but we’ll see. I hope I’m wrong, but that what I see for what it’s worth.

[BlueWolf]

2023 PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Sept 22

It was a bloody week in the market as things hang precariously on all three indices. Don’t really know what to say here except to hang on and hope for the best. As for the contest, the leaderboard remains the same: Louetta’s NVDA rules the roost followed by HUBS and Mr. Market’s RAVE. The really bad new is that we only have four picks in the green now. I sure hope next week is better.

	2023 PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Sept 22
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
1	Louetta	NVDA	Long	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 416.10		117.15%
2	Blue Wolf	HUBS	Long	1/30/2023	$348.99	$ 482.39		38.22%
3	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	1/30/2023	$290.27	$ 357.91		23.30%
4	Mr. Market	RAVE	Long	1/30/2023	$1.68	$ 1.96		16.37%
5	S&P	SPY	Long	1/30/2023	$400.59	$ 430.39		7.44%
6	Antioch’s Dad	$Treasury Bill$	N/A	1/30/2023	$1.00	$ 1.04		3.89%
7	Dow	DIA	Long	1/30/2023	$337.06	$ 339.57		0.74%
8	Minni17	KLIC	Long	1/30/2023	$50.54	$ 48.49		-4.06%
9	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	1/30/2023	$8.94	$ 8.35		-6.60%
10	Antioch	SONY	Long	1/30/2023	$89.33	$ 82.38		-7.78%
11	RickFlyBoy	ZIM	Long	1/30/2023	$18.72	$ 11.42		-39.00%
12	BillyJoe	SQ	Long	1/30/2023	$79.79	$ 44.71		-43.97%
13	Peanuts	DDD	Long	1/30/2023	$10.30	$ 4.51		-56.21%
14	Maximo	IPA	Long	1/30/2023	$4.51	$ 1.97		-56.27%
15	Jiesen	OMGA	Long	1/30/2023	$7.70	$ 3.14		-59.22%
16	JohnHenry	NVDA	Short	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 416.10		-117.15%

[BlueWolf]

2023 PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Sept 29

We had a very slight rebound in the markets this week, but the big story is Mr. Market’s RAVE, which took off like a rocket ship and is now only pennies out of second place. The leaderboard order this week remains Louetta’s NVDA, HUBS, and RAVE although it looks like things might change very soon. Where do we go from here? Well, the market plunged after breaking the H&S neckline on all three indices as I feared. It then took a little bit of pause before experiencing a two bar bounce, but it’s the last bar now that has me concerned. We had a bearish engulfing bar on the DOW and bearish dark cloud cover bars on both the NASDAQ and the S&P. There’s still plenty of downside potential here, folks, and I’d say the overall market sentiment is currently pretty bearish. The only thing we have going for us is the weekend, which can give investors time to digest information and reconsider their positions. I’m bearish myself, but we’ll see. Keep the faith, pickers.

	2023 PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Sept 29
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
1	Louetta	NVDA	Long	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 434.99		127.01%
2	Blue Wolf	HUBS	Long	1/30/2023	$348.99	$ 492.50		41.12%
3	Mr. Market	RAVE	Long	1/30/2023	$1.68	$ 2.37		41.07%
4	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	1/30/2023	$290.27	$ 358.27		23.43%
5	S&P	SPY	Long	1/30/2023	$400.59	$ 427.48		6.71%
6	Antioch’s Dad	$Treasury Bill$	N/A	1/30/2023	$1.00	$ 1.04		3.89%
7	Dow	DIA	Long	1/30/2023	$337.06	$ 334.95		-0.63%
8	Minni17	KLIC	Long	1/30/2023	$50.54	$ 48.63		-3.78%
9	Antioch	SONY	Long	1/30/2023	$89.33	$ 82.41		-7.75%
10	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	1/30/2023	$8.94	$ 7.77		-13.09%
11	RickFlyBoy	ZIM	Long	1/30/2023	$18.72	$ 10.45		-44.18%
12	BillyJoe	SQ	Long	1/30/2023	$79.79	$ 44.26		-44.53%
13	Peanuts	DDD	Long	1/30/2023	$10.30	$ 4.91		-52.33%
14	Maximo	IPA	Long	1/30/2023	$4.51	$ 1.83		-59.38%
15	Jiesen	OMGA	Long	1/30/2023	$7.70	$ 2.15		-72.08%
16	JohnHenry	NVDA	Short	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 434.99		-127.01%

[Louetta]

... snip ... There’s still plenty of downside potential here, folks, and I’d say the overall market sentiment is currently pretty bearish. The only thing we have going for us is the weekend, which can give investors time to digest information and reconsider their positions. I’m bearish myself, but we’ll see. ...snip...

David Tepper is putting his money (part of it anyway) in CDs. Not a good sign at all.

[BlueWolf]

2023 PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Oct 6

We’re another week closer to the end as we enter the final quarter. It was looking to be another down week until we had a strong Friday to even things out. The leaderboard remains the same with Louetta’s NVDA continuing to outfox the market at number one followed by HUBS in second and Mr. Market’s RAVE in third. Along with Antioch’s dad’s Treasury Bill, these remain our only picks in the green.

What do the chart tea leaves portend at this point? It’s hard to say because support and resistance don’t work the same way on indices as they do on individual equity charts. Friday’s bar was hopeful as it represented a bullish engulfing bar on all three indices give or take a tick or two. This may signal a little bounce to the upside or, in the best case, the start of a trend reversal, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The market sentiment still feels bearish to me for whatever that’s worth. We’ll just have to wait and see.

	2023 PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Oct 6
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
1	Louetta	NVDA	Long	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 457.62		138.82%
2	Blue Wolf	HUBS	Long	1/30/2023	$348.99	$ 483.18		38.45%
3	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	1/30/2023	$290.27	$ 364.70		25.64%
4	Mr. Market	RAVE	Long	1/30/2023	$1.68	$ 2.11		25.60%
5	S&P	SPY	Long	1/30/2023	$400.59	$ 429.54		7.23%
6	Antioch’s Dad	$Treasury Bill$	N/A	1/30/2023	$1.00	$ 1.04		3.89%
7	Dow	DIA	Long	1/30/2023	$337.06	$ 334.10		-0.88%
8	Minni17	KLIC	Long	1/30/2023	$50.54	$ 47.31		-6.39%
9	Antioch	SONY	Long	1/30/2023	$89.33	$ 82.97		-7.12%
10	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	1/30/2023	$8.94	$ 7.30		-18.34%
11	BillyJoe	SQ	Long	1/30/2023	$79.79	$ 43.83		-45.07%
12	RickFlyBoy	ZIM	Long	1/30/2023	$18.72	$ 9.77		-47.81%
13	Peanuts	DDD	Long	1/30/2023	$10.30	$ 4.23		-58.93%
14	Maximo	IPA	Long	1/30/2023	$4.51	$ 1.60		-64.40%
15	Jiesen	OMGA	Long	1/30/2023	$7.70	$ 2.39		-68.96%
16	JohnHenry	NVDA	Short	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 457.62		-138.82%

[BlueWolf]

2023 PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Oct 13

Well, the week started with a bounce to the upside as I suggested last week, but by Thursday, the indices rolled over right at its regression channel boundary signifying that we are still in a downtrend. The weekly net was a small move to the upside by the indices, but most of our individual pics moved down. The leaderboard remains the same with Louetta NVDA leading the pack by wide margin, followed by HUBS, and Mr. Market’s RAVE. I still feel the overall market sentiment is bearish, but we shall see.

	2023 PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Oct 13
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
1	Louetta	NVDA	Long	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 454.61		137.25%
2	Blue Wolf	HUBS	Long	1/30/2023	$348.99	$ 456.27		30.74%
3	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	1/30/2023	$290.27	$ 365.28		25.84%
4	Mr. Market	RAVE	Long	1/30/2023	$1.68	$ 1.99		18.45%
5	S&P	SPY	Long	1/30/2023	$400.59	$ 431.50		7.72%
6	Antioch’s Dad	$Treasury Bill$	N/A	1/30/2023	$1.00	$ 1.04		3.89%
7	Dow	DIA	Long	1/30/2023	$337.06	$ 336.68		-0.11%
8	Antioch	SONY	Long	1/30/2023	$89.33	$ 85.15		-4.68%
9	Minni17	KLIC	Long	1/30/2023	$50.54	$ 45.20		-10.57%
10	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	1/30/2023	$8.94	$ 7.52		-15.88%
11	BillyJoe	SQ	Long	1/30/2023	$79.79	$ 43.17		-45.90%
12	RickFlyBoy	ZIM	Long	1/30/2023	$18.72	$ 9.76		-47.86%
13	Peanuts	DDD	Long	1/30/2023	$10.30	$ 3.87		-62.43%
14	Maximo	IPA	Long	1/30/2023	$4.51	$ 1.28		-71.59%
15	Jiesen	OMGA	Long	1/30/2023	$7.70	$ 1.75		-77.27%
16	JohnHenry	NVDA	Short	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 454.61		-137.25%

[BlueWolf]

2023 PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Oct 20

Wow, it’s getting ugly up in here, and I’m beginning to wonder if any of our picks, other than NVDA, are going to be in the green this year. In any event, the leader board changed this week as Mr. Market’s RAVE leapfrogged over HUBS to take over the number two spot. Louetta’s NVDA still reigns supreme in the top spot. Where do we head from here? Down. All three major indices are bleeding and closed very weakly on Friday. We might see a gap down and slight bounce, but let’s not kid ourselves, the market is in a very bearish mood. Keep your powder dry, literally, and we’ll see what happens.

	2023 PotY Contest Standings As of Market Close, Oct 20
#	Contestant	Stock	L or S	Start	Open	Current	Penalty	Gain/Loss
Remembering 💔Riverbabe And Karel💔
1	Louetta	NVDA	Long	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 413.87		115.98%
2	Mr. Market	RAVE	Long	1/30/2023	$1.68	$ 2.12		26.19%
3	Blue Wolf	HUBS	Long	1/30/2023	$348.99	$ 429.07		22.95%
4	NASDAQ	QQQ	Long	1/30/2023	$290.27	$ 354.60		22.16%
5	S&P	SPY	Long	1/30/2023	$400.59	$ 421.19		5.14%
6	Antioch’s Dad	$Treasury Bill$	N/A	1/30/2023	$1.00	$ 1.04		3.89%
7	Dow	DIA	Long	1/30/2023	$337.06	$ 331.19		-1.74%
8	Antioch	SONY	Long	1/30/2023	$89.33	$ 83.19		-6.87%
9	Minni17	KLIC	Long	1/30/2023	$50.54	$ 43.17		-14.58%
10	Tiedyed1	AUPH	Long	1/30/2023	$8.94	$ 7.50		-16.11%
11	BillyJoe	SQ	Long	1/30/2023	$79.79	$ 43.98		-44.88%
12	RickFlyBoy	ZIM	Long	1/30/2023	$18.72	$ 8.47		-54.75%
13	Peanuts	DDD	Long	1/30/2023	$10.30	$ 4.44		-56.89%
14	Maximo	IPA	Long	1/30/2023	$4.51	$ 1.14		-74.69%
15	Jiesen	OMGA	Long	1/30/2023	$7.70	$ 1.50		-80.52%
16	JohnHenry	NVDA	Short	1/30/2023	$191.62	$ 413.87		-115.98%

[mrmarket]

Yup...running my model left only a sparse number of nuggets in my data dump. No new picks coming soon.

[Louetta]

Yup...running my model left only a sparse number of nuggets in my data dump. No new picks coming soon.

Let us not underestimate the value of a tool which tells us when NOT to buy anything.