Karel's Marketocracy Fund

[Karel]

QHF: 24.31 (+0.3%)
SPY: 23.82 (-0.5%)
QQQQ: 23.62 (+0.5%)
IWM: 25.27 (-0.2%)

Nothing spectacular here, but not bad. The fund gained on IWM, the leader, and on SPY, and lost to QQQ, currently in last position.

Top 3: TNP +7.5%, JLG +7.1%, GIL +7.0%. JLG and GIL also set a new high weekly close (= more than 5% over the last high).
Bottom 3: GI -8.4%, BLUD -2.3%, VNBC -2.1%

URBN was sold for a total gain of 133%, or 61.5% annualized.

This week the fund will sell PVTB, and replace it with CIB.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

From between the cardboard boxes:

QHF: 24.23
SPY: 23.94
QQQQ: 23.51
IWM: 25.32

The fund has dropped and the Russell 2000 zoomed past and now sits squarely in front. SPY is breathing in our neck and QQQQ not far behind. That is not why I started this fund!

Changes: 2/21: FPIC was replaced by GIL. FPIC showed a return of 108% in 28 months, or 37% annualized. Not bad. Now URBN gets dropped for "stalling". We want to reduce the number of stocks to 15 (currently 17), so no replacement this time.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Another quickie: QHF, my marketocracy fund, was down -1.8%, just like SPY, better than QQQQ (-2.8%) and worse than IWM (-1.4%). NAVs:

QHF: 24.99
SPY: 23.36
QQQQ: 23.32
IWM: 24.78

Top 3: DECK +3.0%, UPL +1.3%, KCS +1.2%
Bottom 3: URBN -7.7%, TSO -6.9%, FPIC -5.3%

MSL finally got sold, for 26.93 on average; a total gain of 69% in just over 3 years, or 18.2% annualized.
BXG was less trouble to sell. It went for 16.36; gain 57% in 20 months, or 30% annualized.
BR went for a small gain, 2% in 1 week, or 180% annualized
GI entered the fray at 68.86

No changes.

Regards,

Karel

[Lyehopper]

Karel.... YOU ROCK DUDE!!!!

[Karel]

New highs for my marketocracy fund QHF, my entry for the Portfolio of the Year contest. In this fund, I try to hold stocks found with a $$$Mr.Market$$$ strategy until they have lost steam. A new high is nice, but did the fund beat the market? Not quite. The funds +2.2% beat SPY (+2.1%) and QQQQ (+2.1%), but lost to IWM (+3.7%). Assuming those ETF's to be funds with a NAV of 23.03 at the start of the year, like QHF, we get:

My fund: 25.46
SPY: 23.78
QQQQ: 24.00
IWM: 25.12

The top 3 performers: BLUD +11%, EPEX + 10.2%, JLG +7.8%
The bottom 3: UPL -3.8%, KCS -2.6%, TSO -1.8%

Three stocks set a new high over 5% more than the last highest weekly close: BLUD, EPEX and JLG. A stock needs to set such a new high before 13 weeks are out, or it is supposed to have "lost steam". Last week MSL was dropped for that reason, but due to low volume the stock is still present in the portfolio. About 2/3 has been sold up till now. This week BXG fails the criterion, and it has to go. Because we wanted to trim down to 15 positions of about 6%, BXG will not get a replacement.

BR had a nice start, up 2%, but during the week I discovered that BR is being taken over. I'll drop it and take GI instead.

Are you still there? Thank you!

Regards,

Karel

[spikefader]

Karel is huuuuugge!

[Karel]

Amazing! My Marketocracy fund actually gained .4% for the week. The markets did worse, although the small caps were hurt a lot less than the big caps. See the numbers:

Fund: 24.90 (+0.4%)
SPY: 23.30 (-2.1%)
QQQQ: 23.51 (-4.0)
IWM: 24.23 (-0.2%) <== Russell 2000

Top 3: EPEX +7.9%, UPL +7.0%, KCS +4.0%
Bottom 3: URBN -7.3%, DECK -7.1%, BXG -6.2%

Actually the average stock dropped .25% this week, but the big gains were in relatively overweight positions. That is as it should be

Now what do we see here? One stock failed to profit from its extra lease of life and didn't add (another) 5% in the last 13 weeks. MSL is the culprit, and it will have to go. My approximations of $$$Mr.Market$$$'s method brought up BR, and that will become its replacement.

Regards,

Karel

[Lyehopper]

Cooool.... I'm watching you here dude.... I like it.

[Karel]

A bit late, due to the flu or something, but here's the report for my Marketocracy fund QHF. What am I trying to prove with this fund? That a Buy-And-Hold-A-Bit-Longer strategy might just work for $$$Mr.Market$$$ stocks. I think last year proved my point already: I let the portfolio drift for a year (from pure laziness, not from scientific interest), and it was up 20%. I just monitor the stocks at their weekly close. I note when they add 5% to the last high. If a stock fails to add at least 5% in 13 weeks, it gets dumped.

This weeks numbers:

Fund: 24.81 (+3%)
SPY: 23.80 (+.2%)
QQQQ: 24.49 (+.7%)
IWM: 24.29 (+1.1%)

The top three this week: URBN +13.1%, UPL +9.1%, RUSHB +7.3%. The bottom three: TNP -3.9%, BXG -2.4%, WSFS -1.3%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

OK, the first week of my Marketocracy fund in 2006. Actually I have two, but the Mechanical Fund isn't a $$$Mr.Market$$$ like portfolio, so this is my *REAL* marketocracy fund. First thing to consider: all positions are in the black. Curious. I don't expect this to last.

I reset the stocks that were "stale" to recent highs, so they get a new chance and I don't have to hurry to replace them. This also means that the current fund holds three stocks more than I aim for; no big problem. It will get sorted out during the next two months or so. I also reset the "comparison funds" (SPY, QQQQ, and IWM) to a NAV of 23.03, the starting value of my fund for 2006. This means we are now ready for the numbers:

Fund: 24.08 (+4.6%)
SPY: 23.76 (+3.2%)
QQQQ: 24.32 (+5.6%)
IWM: 24.03 (+4.3%)

Currently owned: BLUD, BXG, DECK, EPEX, FPIC, JLG, KCS, MSL, PVTB, RUSHB, SFY, TNP, TSO, UPL, URBN, VLO, VNBC, and WSFS.

Top three performers this week: BLUD +15.2%, DECK +14.2%, and KCS +12.4%. The bottom three: VNBC -4.1%, URBN -1.6%, and MSL -0.6%. The other twelve stocks were positive!

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Thanks spike. It is interesting that an investment portfolio of $$$Mr.Market$$$ stocks does so well over one year. Build the port up. Go to sleep. It is almost a shame to start meddling, but that is exactly what I am going to do. This portfolio is my entry in the Portfolio of the Year (2006) competition.

Regards,

Karel

[spikefader]

congrats on outperforming the market karel.

[Karel]

The numbers:

my Marketocracy fund: 23.03 (+20.7%)
SPY: 18.08 (+4.8%)
QQQ: 18.47 (+1.5%)
IWM: 18.66 (+4.5%)

The percent results are for one year. If you take a look at the date of the previous post, you'll see nothing happened here for one year exactly. Shame on me! But the portfolio did well, nonetheless. Better than my own real money portfolio. Perhaps I should stay out altogether

But no, I can't leave well enough alone. Currently the port holds 19 stocks (one got sold because of a merger) and I aim for 15 positions of about 6% each. SAFM and NFI are notorious underperformers and will go, JLG is the first buy of the year.

And here's the public page for the fund again.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

The numbers:
my Marketocracy fund: 19.08 (+0.2%)
SPY: 17.62 (+1.2%)
QQQ: 18.24 (+1.1%)
IWM: 18.11 (+1.3%)

No sells, no buys.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Boring. Another all-time high. 19.04. The markets fared worse, the last two weeks: SPY 17.41 (+0.2%), QQQQ 18.04 (-1.6%), and IWM 17.87 (+0.1%).

The plus for the two weeks was largely due to NFI, one of our black sheep, up almost 20%, and BXG, another black sheep, up 12%. Other notable winners were the chickens, SAFM (+5.9%), still not flying but at least climbing out of the hole, and UPL (+5.2%). One loser dropped more than 5%: DECK (-8.4%), taking a breather apparently.

Two stocks closed more than 5% higher than their highest weekly close in the portfolio: NFI and BXG. BXG really is on a tear. If NFI had not set a new high, it would have been sold! Now the team remains unchanged.

Regards,

Karel