Karel's Marketocracy Fund

[Karel]

You get used to it: another all-time high for the fund: 18.82 (+0.4%). The markets did better: SPY 17.38 (+0.8%), QQQQ 18.34 (+2.3%), and IWM 17.85 (+1.7%).

We had a very mixed bag this week. Let's start with the black sheep: PKZ -10.3%, UPL -10.2%, TNP -9.1%, VLO -8.7%, URBN -6.1%, and EPEX -5%. That the fund is up with such a line-up is rather a miracle, but the rest of the flock went in the direction their shepherd likes best: up. The biggest gainers: RUSHB +13%, NFI +8.5%, VNBC +7.9%, DECK +7.7%, BLUD +6.8%, SAFM +6.3%, BXG +5.1%, and PVTB +5%.

Five stocks pegged their high weekly close a level (5% or more) higher: BLUD (!), PVTB, DECK(!), RUSHB, and BXG(!). Exclamation points for stocks who did this two weeks in a row.

I missed three stocks that didn't make new highs for three months: KCS, EPEX and SAFM. I reviewed them, and they (retroactively) get another three months to prove what they can do, all three of them.

That's all!

[Karel]

My fund feels a bit manic depressive the last few weeks, but as last week was manic, I am not complaining. Readers who don't have a head for heights, stop reading now!!! All time high!!! 18.75 (+5.0%)!!! Eat dust, you SPYders (17.25, +1.1%), QQQubes (17.92, +1.4%) and IWMs (17.56, +2.5%)of this world! 25% annualized over the last 33 months, the life time of the fund. I am a genius! Thanks to $$$Mr.Market$$$, our great teacher! I have to tie myself to my chair if I want to continue this write-up, or I will float up to the ceiling!!!

<tied down>More than half of the funds gained more than 5%, so I'll keep myself to 8%+-gainers. BXG +19.3%, SFY +11.2%, EPEX +9.3%, UPL +9.3%, DECK +8.7%, TNP +8.6%, BLUD +8.5%. Two stocks lost: MSL -4.4%, and VNBC -3.3%.

Nine stocks pegged their high weekly close a level (5% or more) higher: WSFS, BLUD, DECK, SFY, BXG, VLO, UPL, TNP, and TSO.</tied down>

<floats upward>What a team!

[Karel]

Those 5 stocks from 19 months ago looked a bit strange. I checked on marketocracy and discovered that I hold these stocks several months longer:

VNBC + 283% [22 months]
BLUD +219% [27 months]
PVTB +140% [25 months]
MSL +95% [23 months]
WSFS +76% [23 months]

With these holding periods, WSFS and MSL drop under my 50%/year expectation. Something to keep in mind.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Perhaps to be expected, but a disappointment nevertheless: last week was too good to last. This week the fund underperformed the markets: 17.86 (-1.7%), SPY 17.06 (-1.4%), QQQ 17.67 (+0.0%), IWM 17.14 (-1.0%). We are still on top, however.

Although the majority of stocks lost, two stocks gained more than 5%: VLO +6.5%, and TSO +5.3%. Significant losses were chalked up by URBN -7.7%, FPIC -6.6%, and BLUD -5.1%. The last two were significant gainers the previous week.

Three stocks pegged their high weekly close a level (5% or more) higher: MSL (got a danger mark for tardiness, however), PKZ, and VLO.

I finally decided what to do with sell candidates: look at their earnings, and then decide to give them another 3 months or not. They get a mark against their tickers however: next time they just go. Currently NFI, MSL and BXG carry such a mark.

It is perhaps nice to give the whole lot here (you don't see them on http://tinyurl.com/2oeg9):

VNBC + 283% (19 months)
BLUD +219% (19 months)
PVTB +140% (19 months)
MSL +95% (19 months)*

URBN + 81% (6 months)
WSFS +76% (19 months)
FPIC +75% (13 months)
PKZ +34% (7 months)

SFY +34% (6 months)
DECK +30% (7 monts)
BXG +30% (6 months)*
UPL +18% (4 months)

VLO +17% (4 months)
TNP +13% (4 months)
TSO +9% (3 months)
RUSHB +8% (6 months)

KCS +6% (7 months)
EPEX -18% (4 months)
SAFM -23% (3 months)
NFI -29% (7 months)*

[Karel]

I am wearing a smile on my face today, as the fund was in very good form indeed. It currently stands at $18.16, an all time high, and +5.4% compared to last week. Whoa! I feel moderately huge! Which such a gain, the fund is leading the markets again; to compare: SPY 17.31 (+1.3%), QQQ 17.67 (+1.8%), and IWM 17.32 (+2.8%).

The fund had a whole bunch of shiners this week: FPIC +21.4%, BLUD +15.4%, VNBC +13.3%, SAFM +12% (dead chicken bounce?), URBN +7.9%, and MSL +7.9%. That's the stock I almost dumped last week. Lucky me. Three stocks lost a bit, but not worth mentioning.

Several stocks set a new weekly close 5% or more higher than the previous one. VNBC, FPIC, DECK, RUSH, SFY, URBN and TNP.

I still haven't finished deliberating whether to sell MSL or not and the only other stock that didn't set a new higher weekly close in 3 months is BXG, and it seems a bit early to get rid of BXG too. So I'll think a bit longer.

[Karel]

Well, what a week! Let's see what happened to the fund, and compare it to the markets. The fund now is at 17.23 (+0.9%), which looks nice enough, but the markets did better this week: SPY 17.09 (+3.6%), QQQ 17.35 (2.9%), and IWM 16.85 (+3.7%). Much better. QQQ passed our fund, and SPY is real close.

Winners with 5% or more this week were DECK (+7.9%), BXG (+7.6%), URBN (+6.5%), SFY (+6.4%). BLUD was the only stock to lose more than 5%, but did a good job of it: -12.8%.

Two stocks ratcheted their highest weekly close up another 5% (or a bit more): WSFS and URBN. MSL, FPIC and BXG are still the only three stocks that didn't do that for over 3 months (MSL for over 7 months now). What to do? MSL is still growing revenue and earnings, but slower than the year before. Perhaps a candidate to sell. FPIC is fun, from the viewpoint of revenue and earnings, and so is BXG. We'll mull a bit more over MSL, but leave things as they are for the moment.

[Karel]

Back after too much work and a well needed vacation! How's the fund? Fine, until I saw you. What's this? Look for yourself

Well, let's look for ourselves. The participations for my virtual fund at Marktocracy are valued at 17.08 (+19.4%) See? A comparable SPY fund would be at 16.50 (+6%), QQQ 16.86 (+13.5%) and IWM 16.25 (+12.5%). My absence seems to have done the port no ill. I also find the fund suddenly in positive terrain since my reports here (16.41, some 7 months ago). Time for a

Virtually every stock the fund holds had double digit gains since the last report. There was only one stock with a double digit loss: SAFM, -27%. These chickens are no high-flyers.

There are three stocks now that didn't set a new high weekly close in three months: MSL, FPIC and BXG, but I am still recovering from a severe cold, and wait till next week before I take any action. Good! Aw, shut up, fund.

[Karel]

Hello fund, here we are again. Well it's about time. How's that? Look for yourself.

Ok, let's look for ourselves: the participations for my virtual fund at Marktocracy are valued at 14.30 (-1.6%), See?, for SPY this would be 15.57 (+0.3%), QQQ 14.86 (-0.6%), IWM 14.45 (-0.4%). So the fund is carrying the red lantern, compared to the market(s).

How can this be? Well, 9 stocks dropped more than 10%, 6 of those even more than 15%. That hurts. What also hurts is the way COCO went. We decided to sell it when it stood at 18.72, but the Monday opening was at 11.2x; a 40% drop. We got 11.26 for COCO for a -42.56% return in 4 months.

Do we dare to sell another stock? Yes, we dare. NIHD didn't make a new higher weekly close in almost 4 months now, and we'll kick it out. SAFM gets in, a succesfull $$$Mr. Market$$$ pick from the first half of this year. The target price was 44.17, SAFM now trades for 47.25. We'll see if there is some juice left in those chickens.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

It is sunday evening, it is still hot, I am busy with a nasty translation, and the fund just has to give way for a week.

The numbers are: my fund: 14.54 (-7.7%), SPY: 15.52 (-4%), QQQ: 14.95 (-5.7%), IWM 14.51 (-5.7%)

I wanted to make a quip about red, but get about as far as the red sox. OK, back to work.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

A little bounce back and we are at 15.75, +1.6% for the week. The SPY fund is now at 16.16 (+1.7%), QQQ 15.94 (+2%) and IWM at 15.38 (+2.2%). Hmm.

OK, so what were the bad apples in the bunch? COCO -15.6%, BXG -11%, and FPIC -4.7%. Juicy gains this week were for KCS +10.8%, PKZ +9.4%, URBN 7.8%, DECK +7.1%, BLUD +6.1%, RUSHB +6%, UPL +6%, and NIHD +5.3%. Quite a bunch. New 5% higher weekly closes were for UPL (in its first week) and PKZ (removes itself from the To Be Sold list). On the To Be Sold list we now have COCO (new), WSFS, PVTB, MSL, VNBC, NIHD (new), and DECK. COCO is by far the worst and will have to go, to be replaced by TSO (yet another energy stock). JOSB went for 29.82, a 68% gain in just under 16 months.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

OK, the fund dropped again. Now its value is 15.50; -1.7% for the week. The comparison funds: SPY 15.89 (-1.5%); QQQ 15.63 (-1.3%); and IWM 15.05 (-2.6%). No reason for enthousiasm, no reason for despair; I think the fund is doing relatively OK.

Big losers were SFY -10.6%, BLUD -7.9%, TNP -7.3%, and VLO -5.8%. Big gainers were VNBC +5.9%, ... and that was it. (A stock has to move about 5% to make these little lists!) No stock set a new 5% higher weekly close.

Three stocks joined the list of candidates to be removed: VNBC, DECK and PKZ. With WSFS, JOSB, PVTB, and MSL that makes 7, about a third of the portfolio . OK, so JOSB looks like the worst of the bunch and will go, to be replaced by UPL, an oil stock. BTW, ASFI got sold for 15.15, a 4% gain in almost 7 monts. With dividends this becomes 4.6%, and beats SPY by a hair.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Well, the market is still crummy... Oh no, that was last week. But this week too. The good news is that my fund remained almost flat: 15.77 (-0.3%); while the shadow funds dropped: SPY 16.14 (-0.7%), QQQ 15.84 (-2.4%), IWM 15.45 (-2%). The fund is doing the moonwalk: every appearance of progress, yet moving backward.

What stocks are contributing to this (lack of) success? This week's prominent losers were URBN (-7.6%), FPIC (-6.7%), ASFI (-6.3%), and COCO (-4.8%). On the winning side we see SFY (7.7%), NFI (welcoming its extra lease of life with +7.2%), NIHD (+7%), PVTB (+5.1%), and PKZ (+5%). A new (at least) 5% higher weekly close was set by NFI and SFY.

We still have 5 stocks that didn't set a 5% higher weekly close in three months, so we kick out the worst (ASFI) and replace it by TNP. O yes, MBT got sold for 114.42, a 136% gain in 14 months.

[Karel]

Well, the market is still crummy and my fund gave back almost a percent: 15.82. SPY and QQQ also suffered: 16.29 and 16.34 respectively, and IWM, the new kid on the block, stands at 15.75. The fund seems to be holding up rather well, but we'd like to see some more positive action. That is why MBT has to go (3 months no 5% higher weekly close), and VLO comes in. GO VLO!

Hard hitters this week were FPIC +5.4%, and KCS +5.4%. Hard hit were BXG -7.7%, URBN -5.9%, DECK -5%, and MBT -4.5%. KCS scored a new 5% higher weekly close.

NFI also has been three months without a 5% higher weekly close: not suprising, as it dropped steeply during the month just after I bought it. But the price action seems to pick up, and I have reset the target to give it just this one chance to climb out of the hole.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Well, well, well, well, WELL ... In this crummy week for the market (the SPY shadow fund dropped to 16.46 and the QQQ shadow fund to 16.82), my Marketocracy fund reached 15.94. Compared to the 16.41 all funds were at the start of the report, my fund is still under water, but we seem to be climbing out of the hole.

A melancholy tear falls when I review ASFI (-6.9% for the week), but my face lightens up again when I look at DECK (+10.1%), JOSB (+5.2%), and BLUD (+5.1%).

The fund now has 6 stocks that have failed to set a new 5% higher weekly close for the last three months. What to do? I'll start selling the worst performer of the bunch (compared to the last highest weekly close), and that means ECPG will go. I mean, good financial results are OK, but if they don't move the stock, let's try another one. EPEX, for instance.

Another problem is NFI, and perhaps also COCO. These stocks tumbled down, without any apparent (earnings related) reason. The problem is, that stocks that come down like that might very well bounce back when the shock wears off. I'll have a look at the price action after the "bad news", and then decide to reset the target to give them a chance (but only once), or to get rid of them.

[Karel]

Errm, thank you MEA, for your good wishes, or so I hope

Let's keep the update to the fund for this while. The fund, well, it gave some back and stands at 15.74. With SPY just a bit higher at 16.60 and QQQ now at 17.06, that's not the way we want it.

The fund had 5 shamers for the week: COCO -7.7%, JOSB -7.2%, FPIC -6.5%, ASFI -5.5% and ECPG -4.7%. Shiners were KCS +8.6%, URBN +6.4%, and DECK +5.3%. A new 5% higher weekly close was set by KCS, SFY, BXG and URBN.

Regards,

Karel