Karel's Marketocracy Fund

[Karel]

I don't know if Nirvana is bottoming out or taking a breather for the next slide, but then I don't care very much. This is paper money. The fund is at 14.78, a gain for the week. Hurray. Two stocks scored a week close more than 5% over the last highest week close: BLUD and FPIC.

ITLA was sold for 41.01, a 16.7% gain in 13 months; BXG was bought for 10.45. This week, the fund will sell DRL and URBN will be its replacement.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Not bad! The fund bounced back to 15.55, a 5% gain for the week. Four stocks scored a double digit gain, with URBN, the most recent acquisition, leading the pack with 14.59%. BLUD, BXG and URBN scored a new 5% higher week close (or better).

DRL got sold for 31.85, a 30% gain in 13 months. URBN was bought for 47.78. I think I'll stay put for a week.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

OK, the fund scratched another percent together and now stands at 15.72. The bad news is that a fictitional SPY fund, started at the same time as these reports, would now be at 16.41 (flat), and a QQQ fund would be at 16.54. Well, the fund has some catching up to do!

I had a horribly complicated "who is in line to get sold" procedure, and I have simplified that a lot. The consequence is that some stocks I sold should not have been sold under the new regime, but that's life. The new one is easy: when stocks fail to make a new 5% higher weekly close in a couple of months, they might go. Right. No such stocks in sight yet, no stocks making a new mark, but two stocks with double digit gains: MSL +15% and ASFI +11%. Worst loser was KCS: -9%.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

The fund lost a bit this week, and now stands at 15.65. the fictitional SPY fund now stands at 16.61, and the QQQ fund would be at 16.83. This not the catching up we need!

I had a bunch of 5% losers this week in the fund: JOSB, FPIC, ECPG and NIHD. The bright spots were VNBC (+9.7%), and SFY and URBN reached a new 5% higher weekly close.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Sorry, deadlines and so. The fund stands at 15.83, SPY and QQQ at 16.50 and 16.65 respectively.

Bye!

[MEA_1956]

Kinda sounds like Karel my be our very own Clark Kent. Deadlines, more when the print hits the street. Kinda makes you wounder if Karel and Loius don't have a thing going on over by the drinking fountain. ===> MEA

[Karel]

Lois...

Now if only I had a drinking fountain ...

[Karel]

Oh my, still wearing that stupid Superman badge...

[MEA_1956]

We sure would like an update on the water cooler. You know they sell them in a sleeeeek low profile. Where you have to bend real low to sample the water. I hope LOIS has a closet full of short skirts, so you get all pumped up and can make your port sore like an Eagel.

URBN is trading in that danger zone like CWEI was trading at. Above there 1 yr. Est. I wish you well with this one. ===> MEA

[Karel]

Errm, thank you MEA, for your good wishes, or so I hope

Let's keep the update to the fund for this while. The fund, well, it gave some back and stands at 15.74. With SPY just a bit higher at 16.60 and QQQ now at 17.06, that's not the way we want it.

The fund had 5 shamers for the week: COCO -7.7%, JOSB -7.2%, FPIC -6.5%, ASFI -5.5% and ECPG -4.7%. Shiners were KCS +8.6%, URBN +6.4%, and DECK +5.3%. A new 5% higher weekly close was set by KCS, SFY, BXG and URBN.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Well, well, well, well, WELL ... In this crummy week for the market (the SPY shadow fund dropped to 16.46 and the QQQ shadow fund to 16.82), my Marketocracy fund reached 15.94. Compared to the 16.41 all funds were at the start of the report, my fund is still under water, but we seem to be climbing out of the hole.

A melancholy tear falls when I review ASFI (-6.9% for the week), but my face lightens up again when I look at DECK (+10.1%), JOSB (+5.2%), and BLUD (+5.1%).

The fund now has 6 stocks that have failed to set a new 5% higher weekly close for the last three months. What to do? I'll start selling the worst performer of the bunch (compared to the last highest weekly close), and that means ECPG will go. I mean, good financial results are OK, but if they don't move the stock, let's try another one. EPEX, for instance.

Another problem is NFI, and perhaps also COCO. These stocks tumbled down, without any apparent (earnings related) reason. The problem is, that stocks that come down like that might very well bounce back when the shock wears off. I'll have a look at the price action after the "bad news", and then decide to reset the target to give them a chance (but only once), or to get rid of them.

[Karel]

Well, the market is still crummy and my fund gave back almost a percent: 15.82. SPY and QQQ also suffered: 16.29 and 16.34 respectively, and IWM, the new kid on the block, stands at 15.75. The fund seems to be holding up rather well, but we'd like to see some more positive action. That is why MBT has to go (3 months no 5% higher weekly close), and VLO comes in. GO VLO!

Hard hitters this week were FPIC +5.4%, and KCS +5.4%. Hard hit were BXG -7.7%, URBN -5.9%, DECK -5%, and MBT -4.5%. KCS scored a new 5% higher weekly close.

NFI also has been three months without a 5% higher weekly close: not suprising, as it dropped steeply during the month just after I bought it. But the price action seems to pick up, and I have reset the target to give it just this one chance to climb out of the hole.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Well, the market is still crummy... Oh no, that was last week. But this week too. The good news is that my fund remained almost flat: 15.77 (-0.3%); while the shadow funds dropped: SPY 16.14 (-0.7%), QQQ 15.84 (-2.4%), IWM 15.45 (-2%). The fund is doing the moonwalk: every appearance of progress, yet moving backward.

What stocks are contributing to this (lack of) success? This week's prominent losers were URBN (-7.6%), FPIC (-6.7%), ASFI (-6.3%), and COCO (-4.8%). On the winning side we see SFY (7.7%), NFI (welcoming its extra lease of life with +7.2%), NIHD (+7%), PVTB (+5.1%), and PKZ (+5%). A new (at least) 5% higher weekly close was set by NFI and SFY.

We still have 5 stocks that didn't set a 5% higher weekly close in three months, so we kick out the worst (ASFI) and replace it by TNP. O yes, MBT got sold for 114.42, a 136% gain in 14 months.

[Karel]

OK, the fund dropped again. Now its value is 15.50; -1.7% for the week. The comparison funds: SPY 15.89 (-1.5%); QQQ 15.63 (-1.3%); and IWM 15.05 (-2.6%). No reason for enthousiasm, no reason for despair; I think the fund is doing relatively OK.

Big losers were SFY -10.6%, BLUD -7.9%, TNP -7.3%, and VLO -5.8%. Big gainers were VNBC +5.9%, ... and that was it. (A stock has to move about 5% to make these little lists!) No stock set a new 5% higher weekly close.

Three stocks joined the list of candidates to be removed: VNBC, DECK and PKZ. With WSFS, JOSB, PVTB, and MSL that makes 7, about a third of the portfolio . OK, so JOSB looks like the worst of the bunch and will go, to be replaced by UPL, an oil stock. BTW, ASFI got sold for 15.15, a 4% gain in almost 7 monts. With dividends this becomes 4.6%, and beats SPY by a hair.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

A little bounce back and we are at 15.75, +1.6% for the week. The SPY fund is now at 16.16 (+1.7%), QQQ 15.94 (+2%) and IWM at 15.38 (+2.2%). Hmm.

OK, so what were the bad apples in the bunch? COCO -15.6%, BXG -11%, and FPIC -4.7%. Juicy gains this week were for KCS +10.8%, PKZ +9.4%, URBN 7.8%, DECK +7.1%, BLUD +6.1%, RUSHB +6%, UPL +6%, and NIHD +5.3%. Quite a bunch. New 5% higher weekly closes were for UPL (in its first week) and PKZ (removes itself from the To Be Sold list). On the To Be Sold list we now have COCO (new), WSFS, PVTB, MSL, VNBC, NIHD (new), and DECK. COCO is by far the worst and will have to go, to be replaced by TSO (yet another energy stock). JOSB went for 29.82, a 68% gain in just under 16 months.

Regards,

Karel