Karel's Marketocracy Fund

[Karel]

New Top 3: POT, CF, RIG

A slow week for the markets, but my QHF fund actually showed a gain:

QHF-: 28.85 (-0.8%; -4.6%)
QHF: 32.13 (+0.9%; -5.0%)
SPY: 25.07 (-2.6%; -8.8%)
IWM: 24.00 (-3.4%; -9.5%)
QQQQ: 25.32 (-3.4%; -13.5%)

This weeks halls of fame and shame:
Hall of Fame: MTL +9.8%, POT +4,4%, SID 3,6%
Hall of Shame: NOK -4.5%, AAPL -3.9%, VIP -3.1%

The new Top 3 are POT, CF, and RIG. Well, only CF is new since last week. The Low Number of Stocks Passing The Screens Warning is still in force. Do we need a new pick for our fund? Yes, because VIP is marked as stalling (100 days without a new 5% higher weekly close) and it is down 26% since December 21. Out it goes, and its replacement will be LNN.

FWLT got sold for 64.74, a disappointing 2.0% gain in 6 months and something. APA was bought at 128.95.

Last week the baseline fund, QHF-, sold DNR, ATW, and RIG for an average gain of 2.7%, for a total average of +3.7% over the 101 reported sells. 26 stocks reached 15% or more. This week JEC, BYI and ANR will be replaced by CF, DAR, and MA.

QHF Closed Trades
Winners: 47, avg +72.1%
Losers: 24, avg -24.7%
Total: 71, avg +39.3%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

New Top 3: POT, DNR, RIG

Crazy week! When the markets gain 4+% and my funds even more, I don't expect these gains to keep. We'll see. Suddenly, my funds are on top again, for what it is worth:

QHF-: 29.10 (+6.0%; -3.8%)
QHF: 31.84 (+7.7%; -5.8%)
IWM: 24.85 (+4.3%; -6.3%)
SPY: 25.73 (+4.1%; -6.4%)
QQQQ: 26.22 (+5.5%; -10.5%)

This weeks halls of fame and shame:
Hall of Fame: GGB 18.3%, NOV +16.7%, MTL +11.6%
Hall of Shame: QMAR -0.6%, DNR +4.1%(!), BUCY +4.7%(!)

Well, this weeks worst performers are nothing to be really ashamed of.

OK. The new Top 3 are POT, DNR, and RIG. Warning! The number of stocks that passed the screen is still uncommonly low. OK, but do we need a new pick for our fund? Yes, because FWLT is marked as stalling (100 days without a new 5% higher weekly close) and it is down 25% since Decmber 7. Out it goes, and its replacement will be APA

DECK got sold for 104.61, a 239% gain in 4 years, or 36% annualized. Wonderful. And it immediately gained 9.4% this week after I sold it. Oh, well. BUCY entered the lists at 104.27 and was the third worst performer with +4.7%

Last week the baseline fund, QHF-, sold QMAR, FSTR and PBR for a disappointing average loss of -10.0%, for a total average of +3.7% over the 98 reported sales. 26 stocks reached 15% or more. This week DNR, ATW, and RIG will be replaced by DNR(!), RIG(!), and ATW(!).

QHF Closed Trades
Winners: 46, avg +73.6%
Losers: 24, avg -24.7%
Total: 70, avg +39.9%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Top 3: POT, AXYS, FCN

Well, finally more or less back to normal, not counting a persistent sniffling and other coarse facts regarding my nose. The week before last my funds tumbled way down, and now they show some recovery, especially the baseline fund QHF-:

QHF-: 27.45 (+4.9%; -9.2%)
SPY: 24.72 (-0.4%; -10.1%)
IWM: 23.82 (+1.1%; -10.2%)
QHF: 29.57 (+4.9%; -12.5%)
QQQQ: 24.86 (+0.9%; -15.1%)

This weeks halls of fame and shame:
Hall of Fame: RIO +10.8%, NOV +10.2%, QMAR +10.2%
Hall of Shame: VIP -2.1%, DECK -1.2%, GGB +0.1%

OK. The new Top 3 are POT, AXYS, FCN. Warning! The number of stocks that passed the screen is still uncommonly low, and the stocks that bubbled to the top might be more risky than in nice, clean bull markets. Having got that out of the way, do we need a new pick for our fund? Yes rather, as DECK is down a third since its (weekly) close on 12/7. A tear comes into my eye with this decision, because DECK has been in my Marketocracy portfolio for almost 4 years now, and it did really, really well (buy price in the low thirties). Its replacement will be BUCY.

LXU got sold for 15.13, a -43% loss in 20 weeks. Ugly. POT entered the lists at 151.24.

Last week the baseline fund, QHF-, sold TTES, FSIN, and AXYS for a disappointing average loss of -11.2%, for a total average of +4.2% over the 95 reported sales. 26 stocks reached 15% or more. This week QMAR, FSTR and PBR will be replaced by AXYS, FCN, and LNN.

QHF Closed Trades
Winners: 45, avg +70.8%
Losers: 24, avg -24.7%
Total: 69, avg +37.6%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Late, But Back in Business. New Top 3: POT, DNR, APC

Late, because of the (extended) Easter weekend over here, but still: a blessed Easter everyone.

I owe you the scores of the previous week (ending on March 14) too:
QHF-: 27.26 (-0.2%; -9.9%)
QHF: 30.30 (-1.0%; -10.4%)
SPY: 24.36 (-0.1%; -11.4%)
IWM: 23.10 (+0.3%; -12.9%)
QQQQ: 24.16 (+0.5%; -17.5%)

And last week:
SPY: 24.83 (+1.9%; -9.7%)
IWM: 23.57 (+2.0%; -11.1%)
QHF-: 26.16 (-4.1%; -13.5%)
QQQQ: 24.64 (+2.0%; -15.8%)
QHF: 28.20 (-6.9%; -16.6%)

A very unexpected setback for my funds, but probably just a reminder that these stocks are after all momentum stocks and subject to a lot of emotion. We'll try and keep our cool.

This weeks hall of fame and shame:
Hall of Fame: AAPL +5.3%, DECK +2.9%, QMAR -3.5% (ahem)
Hall of Shame: MTL -16.2%, DNR -15.4%, NOV -14.4%

OK. The new Top 3 are POT, DNR, and APC. Warning! The number of stocks that passed the screen was uncommonly low, and the stocks that bubbled to the top might be more risky than in nice, clean bull markets. having got that out of the way, do we need a new pick for our fund? Yes rather, as LXU has almost halved since its (weekly) close on 12/31. Its replacement will be POT.

The baseline fund, QHF-, will replace TTES, FSIN, and AXYS with POT, TRA, and FLS.

And of course by the time I post this, the trades have already gone through, but I will report next week.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Again I had hoped to be back in business by now, but again that was too optimistic. It is because of a rush job, so I am not complaining, but my fund really needs an update. Anyhow:

QHF: 30.61 (-3.4%; -9.5%)
QHF-: 27.32 (-3.5%; -9.7%)
SPY: 24.38 (-3.1%; -11.3%)
IWM: 23.04 (-4.2%; -13.1%)
QQQQ: 24.05 (-2.1%; -17.9%)

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Thank you folks! I had hoped to be back in business by now, but hat was too optimistic. I'll give the scorecard (do I see my funds on top and in the correct order?):

QHF: 31.68 (-1.7%; -6.3%)
QHF-: 28.32 (-2.1%; -6.4%)
SPY: 25.16 (-1.3%; -8.5%)
IWM: 24.05 (-0.5%; -9.3%)
QQQQ: 24.56 (-1.6%; -16.1%)

Hall of fame: GGB +6.5%, AAPL +4.7%, MTL +4.1%
Hall of shame: FWLT -14.2%, DECK -8.5%, VIP -8.6%

Not a good week, but some remarkable good results. MTL has now tripled since September 07, and in my personal account I have creamed it off 4 times now, and the realized total already tops the initial investment.

Regards,

Karel

[spikefader]

I'm sorry for your loss, Karel. Prayers for you and yours.

[skiracer]

my condolences Karel.

[Karel]

Another week in which I will not update my portfolio. For a very sad reason this time. My mother in law passed away in her sleep on Tuesday night. We are all very much grieved. It came as a surprise, because, while she was clearly going downhill, there was no sign yet of an imminent crisis. She always prayed that God would take her in her sleep, and that prayer was answered. May all her other prayers be answered as well. And ours too.

OK, here is the scorecard, notable because my funds are suddenly on top for the year (second percentage):

QHF-: 28.94 (+3.6%; -4.3%)
QHF: 32.22 (+4.8%; -4.7%)
SPY: 25.49 (+0.4%; -7.3%)
IWM: 24.17 (-0.9%; -8.9%)
QQQQ: 24.97 (-0.3%; -14.7%)

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

No Top 3

Thanks, ski! As an illustration of the fact that my picks usually survive rather well without my intervention, things look even better this week. Unfortunately I am still too busy to do more than report. So here is the scorecard, which shows my funds bouncing back really well, again with the best results for the week. QHF-, the baseline fund, gains a place and is only a whisker behind SPY:

SPY: 25.40 (+1.5%; -7.6%)
QHF-: 27.94 (+3.1%; -7.6%)
IWM: 24.40 (+0.3%; -8.0%)
QHF: 30.73 (+4.8%; -9.1%)
QQQQ: 25.05 (+0.5%; -14.4%)

Hall of fame: SID +10.4%, FWLT +10.2%, VIP +9.1%
Hall of shame: LXU -3.4%, AAPL -0.7%, DECK -0.1%

No selling, no buying.

QHF Closed Trades (no change):
Winners: 45, avg +70.8%
Losers: 23, avg -23.9%
Total: 68, avg +38.8%

Regards,

Karel

[skiracer]

it is a very nice and respectable average thru these markets. great job Karel.

[Karel]

My hat is tipped to your score card Karl, these are very unfreindly waters we tred now days. Marlin

Thank you, Marlin!

Unfortunately I have too much on my mind to pick new stocks again this week. Never mind: my picks usually survive rather well without my intervention anyway. So here is the scorecard, which shows my funds holding up rather well, as the numbers 1 and 2 for the week:

IWM: 24.33 (-4.1%; -8.3%)
SPY: 25.02 (-4.6%; -9.0%)
QHF-: 27.10 (-2.1%; -10.4%)
QHF: 29.31 (-3.2%; -13.3%)
QQQQ: 24.93 (-4.3%; -14.9%)

Hall of fame: MTL +4.4%, DNR +2.9%, RIG -0.2%(!)
Hall of shame: FWLT -9.1%, NOV -8.6%, DECK -6.3%

No selling, no buying.

QHF Closed Trades (no change):
Winners: 45, avg +70.8%
Losers: 23, avg -23.9%
Total: 68, avg +38.8%

Regards,

Karel

[MEA_1956]

Hats Off

My hat is tipped to your score card Karl, these are very unfreindly waters we tred now days. Marlin

[Karel]

No Top 3

I didn't update my portfolio this week, but there is still the scorecard. It was a wonderful week. My QHF scored a remarkable +8%, partly because of the amazing recovery of QMAR after a buyout announcement. Two things more, because there is some wriggling around for places at the start of the year: IWM is the new leader, and QHF left last place. Numbers from last Fridays close:

IWM: 24.37 (+6.1%; -4.3%)
SPY: 26.24 (+4.9%; -4.5%)
QHF-: 27.70 (+4.3%; -8.4%)
QHF: 30.29 (+8.0%; -10.4%)
QQQQ: 26.06 (+3.6%; -11.0%)

Hall of fame: QMAR +42.7%, SID +18.2%, RIO +14.1%
Hall of shame: NOV -1.4%, RIG -1.3%, DECK +1.2%(!)

GNK got sold for 40.97, but with earlier sells the average sell price comes to 47.58, a 42.5% gain in 10 months. Good! ATW was bought at 85.31.

The baseline fund got rid of PCLN, SID and ATRO for a -11.8% average loss. Ouch again. That is 4.7% average gain over the reported 92 sells, of which 26 gained 15% or more.

QHF Closed Trades:
Winners: 45, avg +70.8%
Losers: 23, avg -23.9%
Total: 68, avg +38.8%

Regards,

Karel
__________________

[Karel]

[...] GRMN got sold for 55.22, a 10.6% gain in 1.5 year or so. If GRMN had not gapped down atrociously at the open last week, that might have been something in the neighbourhood of 30%, quite acceptable. But that was not to be. AAPL was bought at 148.11 and lost 12% in its first week. [...]

I am smarter than I made myself appear. I am in the habit of creaming off parts of positions when they appreciate, and I did so twice with GNK. The average sell price amounts to 66.15, a 32.4% gain, or 19.5% annually. I am brilliant! The trades report now looks like:

QHF Closed Trades:
Winners: 44, avg +71.5%
Losers: 23, avg -23.9%
Total: 67, avg +38.7%

Regards,

Karel