Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[spikefader]

SVSE === As the time line advances I do believe we have now started the C leg on this chart. At what point do you feel would be a good entry on this one. Already in at A Buck-O- Seven but would like to add more. My PATIENCES are starting to peek. My PLAN is in tact. My TARGET is in the crosshairs. Please give me the go ahead soom before I start to get EMOTIONAL. ===> M.E.A.

LOL!
On a 6 month daily chart, anywhere from 0.83 to 0.94 is good volume by price support I see. There's a channel short day 3 days ago, which I don't like. But the recent volume push is looking bullish and should give good support at 1.00. The thing I don't like about the chart is a potential SHS that targets a gap fill down at 0.60.
If it were me, I'd go long at 1.00 and stop at 0.93. Then if I'm stopped out, I'd go long at 0.60 with a stop at 0.51.
Good luck.

[spikefader]

Hi Spike,
I'm reading Martin Pring's Intorduction to Technical Analysis. Here is a chart with some analysis for a sell price for NTGR. Comments?
Thanks,
Dan

I see on the weekly an inverted SHS that targets 22.21. Looks like best play is to look for the C entry which would be the next mini wave down to maybe 15.60, which would mesh nicely with a 50% retrace entry from the low at 12.70. I think it's got a big 5th wave left in it up to 22 and beyond.

[spikefader]

spike what is your read on ELN today ?

I see it as a low volume early pop that's getting sold. I'm bearish on ELN while 28.30 resistance holds. If that gets taken out, then I'll take my bear suit off for it.

[noshadyldy]

Happy New Year to you dear Spike , mrs. Spike and all the little Spikettes.(I'm assuming your not really twelve.)

[spikefader]

Happy New Year to you dear Spike , mrs. Spike and all the little Spikettes.(I'm assuming your not really twelve.)

Happy New Year noshadyldy! And to all readers!

2005 is the Chinese Year of the Rooster. Maybe that bodes well for Digital Rooster.Com Ltd, ticker DGRLF!

[New-born baby]

Lscp

Spike,

Here's best wishes for 2005 for you, and all on this forum. I hope '05 surpasses all your previous years for blessing and profits. And thanks for all the good work you do.

Nice chart for the Rooster!

Now, LSCP had a breakout Thursday and Friday. I was too chicken to jump in Thursday. I watched it move up from .92 to +3.30 on Thursday, then sat hypnotized on Friday as it jumped up another $2+. DUH! In any case, the formal pivot for LSCP was 34.10, and it is therefore right at 5% above its pivot. Is it too late to chase? I am thinking Spike's play would be to wait to buy at support. First support would be at 34.71, 2nd 33.52, 3rd 32.53. What does the bull riding cowboy say? And what lesson would you care to lay on me for being too gutless to jump in?

[spikefader]

Thanks New born.

LSCP: Well, there's a channel turn up as of last closing candle (from early Dec high), so you could safely chase 35.91 imo and look for that gap to be a runaway based on the volume. Good target is 41.00. A good stop loss might under the gap????

On the fear factor, it is much easier said than done, but a trader musn't let emotion into trading decisions. But first you've got to define what it is you're feeling, determine that it is in fact emotion and not just valid apprehension that you're about to break a rule you've set. Having determined it's pure emotional fear, then one must formulate a plan of response when it happens in the future.

Ask yourself "Why am I not opening this position?"

Is logic telling you that an entry is wise at this point? And despite that, fear is preventing you from doing it? Examine what this fear really is. Ponder the exact nature of it. Learn about your enemy so that you can conquer it by finding its weakness and exploiting it rather than letting it exploit you.

I think everyone would agree that emotional hesitation/fingerfreezing butterflies are due to self doubt or fear of the unknown - that wavering in opinion or judgement. But again, is the apprehension justified? Maybe it is. Maybe all your entry rules haven't been met, or if they have there is a warning signal that worries you significantly enough that you don't place the order. Only you can determine that. Do you have clear definable rules for entry? Or are your rules so discretionary that it's hard to make them fully accountable? Discretionary trading can be very dangerous and open to emotional influence.

This is the great thing about having an inflexible system for entries and exits. If X happens, you'll do Y. Unless X happens, you'll do nothing. If X has happened and you've done Y, then you look for Z to happen. If Z happens, you'll then do A, B or C, depending on the nature of Z. Simple rules are the best. Rules with exceptions can get confusing, but as long as you're clear on what your reaction SHOULD be according to the rules, then the future price behavior doesn't and shouldn't matter to you. You should accept that you HAVE to love your losers. They WILL happen, so accept them simply as a business expense. View stop outs as a wonderful thing.

It's such a complicated thing, dealing with emotions. And I think the reason it's so hard is because as we grow up we are conditioned by our parents, family, and friends to strive for success, and when we fail it's embarrassing, depressing, frustrating, and not at all welcome. In life, we're taught to win win win. If we lose, we're losers and that's terrible. This perception has to be modified for losing trades. One must actually accept all trades as potential losers, and that it's OK to fail. Make the failures accountably small, knowing faithfully that when the winners come they will be big winners and in the long-term picture you are a WINNER by losing well, by sticking to the plan no matter what.

Hope that helps.

[New-born baby]

ThankS!

Spike,

Thank you for the "sermon." I needed that!

With LSCP, I had my plan, the conditions were met, but the guts were lacking. Why? I made several losing trades early in 2004, and that bent my pysche. I was able to trade successfully in a different system, made up my losses, and had a profitable year after all. But this trade of LSCP was not according to my usual system. In other words, the system that made me money was not a swing trade or a breakout trade system. It was the old buy and hold system. And LSCP was a simple breakout buy plan. I should have jumped in, and perhaps next time the paralyzed finger will no longer be paralyzed.

[MEA_1956]

Thanks Spike, That Info fits nicely into my plan. We just might find the perfect entry touch yet. ===> M.E.A.

[spikefader]

Spike,

Thank you for the "sermon." I needed that!

With LSCP, I had my plan, the conditions were met, but the guts were lacking. Why? I made several losing trades early in 2004, and that bent my pysche. I was able to trade successfully in a different system, made up my losses, and had a profitable year after all. But this trade of LSCP was not according to my usual system. In other words, the system that made me money was not a swing trade or a breakout trade system. It was the old buy and hold system. And LSCP was a simple breakout buy plan. I should have jumped in, and perhaps next time the paralyzed finger will no longer be paralyzed.

You're welcome. So it was fear that the breakout entry would fail - yes, trading breakouts can fail often during a sideways or bear market, and the first 8 months of 2004 were sideways to down. You are now frustrated that the last 5 months have been bullish and seeing breakouts work nicely. It's hard to know what you're in until it's been, so finding an 'all round' good system, i.e. good in any market, is something you should strive for. Bull is nice, but not always there. I'm bullish during this big wave up as discussed in the thread, so your breakout system should do ok until that run is over.

[The Photon]

Qcom

spike I am looking at this for a long entry what is your opinion- Thanks p

[spikefader]

spike I am looking at this for a long entry what is your opinion- Thanks p

Had a channel long yesterday. Current levels right now at 42.50 is intraday support and close enough to the pivot of 42.44. I'd take that with a stop under yesterday's low. That makes risk under 2% to target mid 50's (upper weekly channel) or 30% profit. Nice R/R there.

[spikefader]

re SIRI http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/...postcount=1717
I'm out at 7.62 for +0.47 or 6.57% profit.

[The Photon]

Qcom

thanks Spike in @ 42.5 - photon

[spikefader]

Vector nails it again. Do I regret not shorting it? What do you think