Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[Runner]

Spike, could this possibly be the end of the 5th wave up on the Nasdaq? Or just a slap back down to reality.

[spikefader]

Spike, could this possibly be the end of the 5th wave up on the Nasdaq? Or just a slap back down to reality.

It could be, but I think there's at least another minwave up left in it. When Vector turns bullish again, I'll hop on the bull once more. But what worries my bullish instincts are the triple top that is there now. Could be quite a ride down this week....

[Runner]

I think today many jumped on the short side and trying to go alone for the ride. I’m watching 2100 area on the nas. I’m seeing if it might hold. Lot of stocks are unavailable for shorting. What is the saying “the trend is your friend”.

[spikefader]

Double QQQQ channel long day.

[New-born baby]

It's hard to know what you're in until it's been, so finding an 'all round' good system, i.e. good in any market, is something you should strive for. Bull is nice, but not always there. I'm bullish during this big wave up as discussed in the thread, so your breakout system should do ok until that run is over.

I guess "its over, huh?" LSCP just became the latest "Walmart." I mean, "watch for falling prices." Brutal. Today was a shorter's dream, provided the new SHO rules allowed you to short it.

Any suggestions for where I should look for a good all-around system that works in any market?

Spike, what kind of investing goal do you have for 2005? 100% gain for your portfolio? 200%?

Good investing to you. Always.

[spikefader]

I guess "its over, huh?"

Not necessarily. Channel long day might get bought. If it doesn't and the signal fails then I'll reconsider things.

Any suggestions for where I should look for a good all-around system that works in any market?

LOL Now THAT is a good question. Good all-around systems are few and far between, and some might spend a lifetime looking for one, only to miss seeing that it was right in front of their own eyes the whole time. I'd argue anyone can build such a system if one can only change their own behavior and expectations.

But aside from that aspect, I'd suggest such a system would employ shorting at the appropriate times. If one doesn't short, then one requires an ability to sit on the sidelines for months and/or possess outstanding timing with lots of patience, and mastery of 'big picture' bullish signals, and perhaps some pefectly timed dollar cost averaging - something I don't like. No easy answers I'm afraid. Where to look for one of those systems? Well, look within! The journey to perfection is a frustrating one, and I'd argue the real lessons learnt are the ones up close and personal and that cost you, rather than lessons posted on a forum. If you can turn those lessons into modified behavior and system tweaks then eventually you will hit a sweet spot.

Spike, what kind of investing goal do you have for 2005? 100% gain for your portfolio? 200%? Good investing to you.

Another great question! I'll be the first to say that, generally speaking, setting goals in life is a good thing. But with trading one must be careful setting % of financial goals. This type of goal can induce emotion - failure, pride, anger, joy. And those volatile emotions can play havoc on that critical thing I always rave on about - discipline. So my investing goal is never in terms of percentages or money, but rather focussed on discipline. I aim to be disciplined and unemotional every day. If I can go through the day without breaking a rule or letting emotion influence me, then my goal is met. What I get in % terms from the market is something I can't directly control. It gives what it wants to, and takes what it wants to. The only thing I can control is my entry and exit. So therefore my goals should be focussed around those entries and exits - and the discipline it takes to wait for them and stick to them. As can be noted through this thread, sometimes the market frustrates the fire out of me and doesn't 'give' me what I might set as a target, or gives me a good % then takes it away just as fast or faster. Sometimes it give a great run and nice quick profit. But is that trade any more successful than the trade that stops me out and avoids a huge loss? No, it's not. Emotion can suggest it IS more successful, but in reality - my reality anyway - it's just another trade in a system. Sure, those are the trades that "seem" to "make the difference" as far as overall profitability goes, but that is merely a matter of perspective and directs attention away from where it is needed - i.e. how to "lose" the best. For whoever loses the best, will win the best.

[IamOrion]

Mtex

What do you think spike, channel long today?

[grebnet]

Any thought on SMDI ????

I've had this on my radar for a while looking for a pullback which has now occurred . Any thoughts of entry?????

Thanks Spike

[IamOrion]

Mtex

That Channel long paid off. Bounced hard off the channel...

[spikefader]

What do you think spike, channel long today?

Yep! Also a bounce of a 50% retrace zone from the 13.07 low. Entry tomorrow at S1 or Pivot would be good. Stop below today's low. Target 27.50 upper channel.

[spikefader]

I've had this on my radar for a while looking for a pullback which has now occurred . Any thoughts of entry?????

Thanks Spike

Current levels around 5.77 look good. Had a channel long yesterday, so while 5.60 holds I'm bullish on it.

[spikefader]

That Channel long paid off. Bounced hard off the channel...

Yep. Came back to S2 after the first big bounce, and then bounced off S2.

[IamOrion]

Dhb

Looks like a channel long on DHB today as well.

[yaoyao]

What do you think about MFLX and SNRR? MFLX sold off hard recently. I really like fundamentals and have decided to hold it for a longer term, but would like to hear your opinion chartwise.

[spikefader]

Looks like a channel long on DHB today as well.

The only thing I'd question is where you start the black channel from. Consistency in a system comes from doing consistent things. It would be hard to have channel consistency drawing a channel from anywhere you can make a channel long fit. Know what I mean? Drawing them from a recent or long-term low gives them more credibility and significance.

EDIT: And DHB's channel today makes a slight expansion, which is a warning for longs. The channel long yesterday - the lod - failed, and although today IS another channel long day, there is the expansion there, which is the warning. If I had a trade in profit, I'd move stop to break even, and if I was in the red I'd probably close the trade at next intraday R1 or price resistance.