Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

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  • spikefader
    Senior Member
    • Apr 2004
    • 7175

    Re QQQQ short here, covered just then for tiny profit of +.22, and looking to enter long soon.
    Attached Files

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    • spikefader
      Senior Member
      • Apr 2004
      • 7175

      ZICA: Not liking the action for an ascending triangle. I'm neutral on it until it does some more work.

      Comment

      • jiesen
        Senior Member
        • Sep 2003
        • 5319

        Originally posted by New-born baby
        Spike,

        Are we moving close to a channel long in OFG again?
        Well, it just turned around at 26.6. I'm no TA master, but it looks like a good sign to me.

        Comment

        • New-born baby
          Senior Member
          • Apr 2004
          • 6095

          Thanks Jiesen

          Originally posted by jiesen
          Well, it just turned around at 26.6. I'm no TA master, but it looks like a good sign to me.
          Thanks, Jiesen!
          pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

          Comment

          • jiesen
            Senior Member
            • Sep 2003
            • 5319

            Originally posted by New-born baby
            Thanks, Jiesen!
            Anytime, NBB!

            Comment

            • spikefader
              Senior Member
              • Apr 2004
              • 7175

              OFG: It's got potential, for sure. Lower prices this week after a channel long last week is a concern. I need today's low to hold to stay bullish on it.
              Attached Files

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              • spikefader
                Senior Member
                • Apr 2004
                • 7175

                QQQQ: Vector closed bullish again today. Taking a long afterhours right here at 37.26, bull flag break out.
                Attached Files

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                • spikefader
                  Senior Member
                  • Apr 2004
                  • 7175

                  King!

                  Just read your thread and I'm glad you're alive! Get back on that horse brother.

                  To the thread readers: I may sound like a broken record sometimes, but we’re investors, and we deal with risk every day. So I’m highlighting just how bad risk can get, and telling you to plan for it, deal with it, and at night sleep well because of your planning. Some people sleep well because they’re ignorant of the danger, well if you read my thread, you can’t claim to be ignorant.

                  Timely reminder for everyone, (as if anybody needs one after today!):

                  Bad news is usually completely blindsiding, and unexpected. Bad news can shake even the mightiest chart, and the brightest fundamentals.

                  Personal previous comments in this regard:
                  http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=7864&postcount=1030
                  “Why use stops on a stock that looks so promising? Well, the market can be brutal and can leave you completely stunned. There are many examples of it happening; the most recent is MRK, although the weekly chart was screaming caution way back in January when the big channel turned down. But sometimes you don't get the warning - it just happens….imagine the worst POSSIBLE news that could hit it, and then where would the stock price go if that happened?”

                  http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=5322&postcount=73
                  “Forgive me if I'm thread crapping, but … "Don't marry a stock and ignore what the market tells you" or the chart tells you. Every stock is unique, that's for sure. This stands out as having reason to be bought, but the market tells me that there is reason to be cautious with this stock. Consider these questions:
                  What's the worst possible news that could hit this stock?
                  What would happen to the stock price if that news came to pass?
                  Where is support on the chart? And more importantly, where are the holes on the chart. The gap below 10 is a big fat glaring irrefutable hole. Sure, it was a runaway gap and the stock could turn into a TASR, but if bad news hits it, that gap may get filled.
                  Are you prepared to ride it down to the gap and expose yourself to that much risk?
                  These questions apply to any stock we trade. If you're happy with the risk then excellent. Everyone has different risk/reward tolerances. If a 50% or worse loss is acceptable to someone and they have factored it in to their game plan, then Great! I throw these thoughts out there so that people know that a 50% loss from current levels is at least a possibility as of today.”

                  http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=8198&postcount=1166
                  “Right now, ELN is a gamble both long and short in my opinion. Channels are currently saying down, as per below chart. There's a gap down there that might fill if there's bad news”

                  Good trading to all.

                  Comment

                  • kingofthehill
                    Senior Member
                    • Nov 2003
                    • 487

                    Spike-it seems if you play a large position long you need to use option puts, the stock blew right past most stops, i dont use stops but in the future i will always carry puts for insurance, I had them last year while awaiting approval, and I did not buy anymore once the stock "seemed stable", puts would have saved the day today , stops were worthless today .. King

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                    • dmk112
                      Senior Member
                      • Nov 2004
                      • 1759

                      Spike, do you always use hard stops? I stopped using hard stops b/c of MM always taking my shares and then bouncing right back so I use "mental" stops more often.
                      http://twitter.com/DMK112

                      Comment

                      • spikefader
                        Senior Member
                        • Apr 2004
                        • 7175

                        Originally posted by kingofthehill
                        Spike-it seems if you play a large position long you need to use option puts, the stock blew right past most stops, i dont use stops but in the future i will always carry puts for insurance, I had them last year while awaiting approval, and I did not buy anymore once the stock "seemed stable", puts would have saved the day today , stops were worthless today .. King
                        Ya, I absolutely would encourage puts to hedge. They are great, and in cases like ELN today, out of the money puts are so very cheap, yet offer great protection. But as you say, the stock seemed stable, and whodathunk such bad news! But even some part hedging with OTM cheap puts would have saved the day. If you had used a conditional stop loss order, with the trigger method set to activate outside RT Hours, you would have likely stopped out premarket at around 25.00, looking at the time and sales, but that's ancient history now :/
                        Best to ya King!

                        Comment

                        • spikefader
                          Senior Member
                          • Apr 2004
                          • 7175

                          Originally posted by dmk112
                          Spike, do you always use hard stops? I stopped using hard stops b/c of MM always taking my shares and then bouncing right back so I use "mental" stops more often.
                          With stocks, more often than not I'll use a hard market order stop. Sometimes I'll make a limit stop order to avoid huge slippage in thinly traded stocks. It depends on what time of the day it is, the type of stock, the volume, and the strategy I'm using.
                          With futures, I categorically use a hard market order stop - without question, no exceptions.
                          As for MM games, I love conspiracy theories too, although you really have to consider whether your stop is even residing in a system that is viewable by a MM.

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                          • Picks

                            Do you agree with the following patterns?

                            Bullish Patterns
                            Triple Top/Bottom: JCP PD SERO EGOV XLI CNX CRS
                            Triangle Breakout: HRB XLF MCRL MVL ARMHY DY PRFT EQT MTH POG
                            Cup-With-A-Handle: SKM
                            Range Breakout: KSS LEN BNE LQI CVO
                            Trend Reversal: GSLI PFI CHR ALCO MLAN XPRSA NASI ERF SIMC INB
                            Stochastic Combo: TJX

                            Bearish Patterns
                            Triple Top/Bottom: ABS TIBX AGIL CEC
                            Triangle Breakout: ABS GPC TIBX TKLC IM
                            Range Breakout: ABS AGIL
                            Stochastic Combo: TLCV USFC

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                            • spikefader
                              Senior Member
                              • Apr 2004
                              • 7175

                              lol. You've just listed 47 stocks there Hany!

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                              • It's supposed to be a community exercise.

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