Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[skiracer]

IIC,
I have to agree with you in principle. Regardless of the instrument and there are some that are better than others but the idea is to start young and put it in some instrument that is relatively safe. The idea is to be consistent doing it year after year. There is no need to put the maximum amount allowed if it is going to strangle your budget and restrict your lifestyle. You'll end up hating it if that's the case. But to just do it for 35 or 40 years will astound you with what can accumulate over that period of time.
I wouldn't necessarily say that Webs is wrong because if you let someone else run your money anything can and will happen. There are plenty of people out there that had the right idea but made the wrong choices of where to put it an ended up on the losing side of the game.

[Websman]

IIC,
I wouldn't necessarily say that Webs is wrong because if you let someone else run your money anything can and will happen. There are plenty of people out there that had the right idea but made the wrong choices of where to put it an ended up on the losing side of the game.

That's my point. The people that I know, who are risking it all, know very little about markets or how they work. They think they can throw their money in any fund and they'll be rich.

Not everyone can win.

[scifos]

Let's assume that they can each put in $3,000 yr in an IRA...that's $6,000 yr at a compounded 8% annually for 40 yrs(That's the avg since 1950). That would be $1.56 million.

If the average direction of the Market is up, why not put your money in something like the Rydex Velocity 100 Fund, which produces 2x the movement of the Naz. I'd probably switch to something less volitile as I approach retirement. But if you've got 40 years until retirement then you can wait out the downward swings.

[IIC]

If the average direction of the Market is up, why not put your money in something like the Rydex Velocity 100 Fund, which produces 2x the movement of the Naz. I'd probably switch to something less volitile as I approach retirement. But if you've got 40 years until retirement then you can wait out the downward swings.

I was just using that as an example since it was easy to find the % gain over a long period.

The point is that over the long term, dollar cost averaging in a stable index fund is probably a good place for people to put away a nest egg if they don't want to really follow the markets.

What really galls me is these people...and I know some...that consider their guy at the bank to be an expert at where they should put their IRA money when they only represent a few funds. Also, these sales people who work for a fund and people I know consider them to be their financial advisor. I'm not saying there are not any good one's, but c'mon...how many are there? And if someone is only putting in $3,000 a year...do they really think their "financial advisor" is going to be calling them when it is appropriate to re-allocate?

That's one reason I recommend to people I know who have no interest in actually trying to learn or follow the markets... a boring index fund. I've seen too many disappointed people over the years.

And yes Webs...I know a lot of people like that...IIC

[New-born baby]

Where?

Ha! They're not getting a dime of my money! I've got it all locked away!!!

Webs,

Let me guess: tucked somewhere behind your ears?

[Websman]

Webs,

Let me guess: tucked somewhere behind your ears?

Yes...until I find a stock bargain.

[billyjoe]

IIC,

I totally agree. The guy at the bank or your local hometown broker may not know anymore about stocks than you do. It's funny that Mr. Market is probably better than 99% of these so called experts and he doesn't advise for a living. These guys must have humongous kahonies if they think their advice is worth paying for.


billyjoe

[B.J]

Great!
When you describe it as short channel bounce I gather you mean upper channel line tag. Yes, it's a minor channel, and in a bear market we are probably wise to target short like that.

Yes, I did mean Friday's bounce off the SHORT TERM (or as you say minor) channel. Thanks for the input.

[New-born baby]

Canadian Dollar vs. USD

Spike,

I'd like an expert's opinion (i.e. that'd be you, Spike) on where you see the USD vs the CD exchange rate headed. The USD gained strength the past two weeks vs. the CD. Where do you see the bottom?

Thanks for everything. If you are too busy, I understand.

[dmk112]

Spike,

Do you think KCS has hit a channel long? And if it fails, is it down hill from there?

[New-born baby]

5th Wave Up if it is

Spike,

Do you think KCS has hit a channel long? And if it fails, is it down hill from there?

DMK112,

I looked at your chart. Hasn't KCS had 4 complete waves up? The old Wm. O'Neil line is "Do not buy after 4 waves up." I could be wrong . . . .

[spikefader]

NUTR: I posted a bullish chart on this a little while ago. Today I spotted the latest triangle break after Mr.M's brought the latest news to us. Might be worth a long

[spikefader]

KCS, there was a minor weekly channel long failure recently. Steer clear of it until some nice discount.

[spikefader]

Spike,

I'd like an expert's opinion (i.e. that'd be you, Spike) on where you see the USD vs the CD exchange rate headed. The USD gained strength the past two weeks vs. the CD. Where do you see the bottom?

Thanks for everything. If you are too busy, I understand.

You're welcome
Here ya go. Charts showing the potential for USD to bounce some after it's hammering. And Canadian looks like it's going to weaken. So USD:CDW has a bullish bias. USD:CDW chart is clearly bullish.

[spikefader]

re KBH http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...postcount=3146 there is an overnight double bottom in place so there is the first opportunity to nail a long. Stop under it of course.