Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[spikefader]

you read my mind on BOOM channel short.
SNHY no good pattern yet.

[coachgbw]

lol beef vindaloo

[New-born baby]

GM Chart: WARNING: it is graphic!

Warning! The following chart of GM for the last twelve months is graphic and not for the faint of heart.

Spike:
Is it possible GM has bottomed? The news out of Detroit was awful today: lost $2B this quarter alone. Market share dropped again from 28% to 25%. GM has removed all forecast for sales and profit for 2005. Seeks Union givebacks on healthcare to save the company.

Look at this chart (if you will, please) and give me your opinion. And thank you!

[dmk112]

Newborn, why do your charts look like that? I can barely read the text.

[New-born baby]

Click on the chart: twice

Newborn, why do your charts look like that? I can barely read the text.

DMK,

Click on my chart. When the new chart appears, click on that chart again. You'll be able to easily read the chart. Or did I read somewhere that bulldogs do not have good eyesight?

[dmk112]

Thanks new born... alot of stocks reversed today, but is it a dead cat bounce? hmmm... it can be a bottom or just a short opportunity, I think this question will be answered by friday.

ps. the Bull or Bear poll for this week was bearish, which thus far has pretty much been a contrarian indicator so maybe it will work this week again.

[spikefader]

Spike:
Is it possible GM has bottomed? The news out of Detroit was awful today: lost $2B this quarter alone. Market share dropped again from 28% to 25%. GM has removed all forecast for sales and profit for 2005. Seeks Union givebacks on healthcare to save the company.
Look at this chart (if you will, please) and give me your opinion. And thank you!

Yep, it's ugly - GM, not your chart haha! With the weekly, I like to look at 3 years worth - really get the bigger picture. 1 year you miss so much. It's like looking at 3 months of a daily chart; there's only so much you can infer ya know? Here's mine. Your chart I see the words 'signals long'; I would reword that to 'profit-taking potential'. That's all it is. If news is bad enough it will slice through lower channel support faster than Mr.Market cuts cheese when he's hungry. GM is clearly in a profit-taking zone however, and shorts would be wise to cover here. Then reload on a good bounce, because I don't think it's done. BUT, a little short covering, and a bullish market, and it could have a nice bullish correction. It all depends on how bad the news is, and who (and how many) wants out. Again, it's like how long is a piece of string? It's as long as it is cut. Only time will tell if she can turn the expanding channel into a nice base to buy from. That'll take months I think. All the while there is the nagging thought in the back of my mind of "that channel expanded".

Best to all!

[New-born baby]

Gm:

Spike,

Thank you so much!

I have been taught by an "expert" who writes a newsletter that your chart should be based upon a ten-twelve fold time frame that you plan to hold your shares. Let's say you plan to swing trade GM for one week. Then you need a three month chart. If you plan to hold your shares just one-three days, a monthly chart is the place to look. etc. That doesn't mean you neglect to look at the yearly or three year, but the most recent trend for the time frame you plan to hold "trumps" if you will the other charts. That's why I chose the yearly.

If taking GM long is insane (I agree), there are a lot of buyers out there. I don't know who, but it is turning 22 million shares a day. (Almost another SIRI--neither one of them making any money!). Must be professional shorters taking and dumping the shares.

This morning, Dr. J called GM's doji star "capitulation." I look for a short term bounce. The reasons are: 1. We are running up against a .50 divy on May 3. (2) The shorters will cover today and give GM a short term bounce. (3) Bottom fishers will buy thinking it is safe, and (4) dividend hunters will, like jackals, buy into GM looking for that near 10% dividend. So I expect a shortterm bounce. But any advance after that will have to be driven by the news that the union is going to accept concessions in order to save the company, and that is so unlikely that if it did happen, GM would be $50 again in no time.

Thanks again, Spike!

[New-born baby]

Question for Dr. Spike

Dr. Spike,

I was looking at your chart again. At the bottom you wrote, "Expanding channel hit". I didn't see an expanding channel. I did see the price broke through the 3 year channel and recovered. Is it that breakthrough that you call "an expanding channel?" I am trying to sharpen my chart reading skills.

I am not going to take GM long. But the more I look at that chart, the more I am convinced that she's going to bounce for a daytrade/swingtrade. That bearflag signaled yesterday's drop, and I noticed that drop was equal to the flagpole that held the bearflag. My thinking is that she's going to bounce. IF one is quick, he might jump in and out with some profit. On the other hand, I try to buy only healthy companies, not sick ones like this.

Thanks!

[New-born baby]

Dead Cat Bounce

Thanks new born... alot of stocks reversed today, but is it a dead cat bounce? hmmm... it can be a bottom or just a short opportunity, I think this question will be answered by friday.

I don't think its done just yet. Wednesday should be a green day, but she'll be red Thursday and Friday. Oil prices are ascending again.

[B.J]

Warning! The following chart of GM for the last twelve months is graphic and not for the faint of heart.

Spike:
Is it possible GM has bottomed? The news out of Detroit was awful today: lost $2B this quarter alone. Market share dropped again from 28% to 25%. GM has removed all forecast for sales and profit for 2005. Seeks Union givebacks on healthcare to save the company.

Look at this chart (if you will, please) and give me your opinion. And thank you!

Isn't the doji star indicator more reliable if the star is a gap down?

[mystiky]

Spike, whats happening with SNHY?

looks to me like SNHY is getting a bit "tired" near $31 today. I am seeing moe and more "larger block trades" for it around 30.50.

It's one crazy chart. What are your thoughts? Keep in mind its been up from 23 to 31 in two trading days. I am thinking of going short here.

Thanks, as always!

[spikefader]

Spike,
Thank you so much!
This morning, Dr. J called GM's doji star "capitulation." I look for a short term bounce. The reasons are: 1. We are running up against a .50 divy on May 3. (2) The shorters will cover today and give GM a short term bounce. (3) Bottom fishers will buy thinking it is safe, and (4) dividend hunters will, like jackals, buy into GM looking for that near 10% dividend. So I expect a shortterm bounce. But any advance after that will have to be driven by the news that the union is going to accept concessions in order to save the company, and that is so unlikely that if it did happen, GM would be $50 again in no time.
Thanks again, Spike!

You're welcome, as always bro. You could be spot on with GM bounce. Thinking about it, perhaps my word 'insane' is a little too strong. I mean, ok, it's clearly at some significant lower channel support, and expanding channels can still lead to some very bullish moves. Perhaps it's a very tradeable long right now. I don't like it, but I'm picky - and that's not bottom-picky! haha

I just don't see a stock like GM giving an intraday V bottom in a bearish market. That bounce yesterday intraday has the distinct characteristics of some hefty shorts covering (and genuine buyers of course), and the question remains, with some significant supports broken, are they done yet. Perhaps they are, and OK, that's fine. Let 'em give me a channel long to look at......instead of the channel turn down currently from yesterday's lows. I just don't think they are done covering.....just taking some profits, pausing, waiting for price to meander lower, keeping hope alive for any bullish GMers out there, until boom, support cracks, it drops sharp and they elect to cover some more, and the cycle keeps going until they've all nicely covered and ready to bull. I'll be a bull too - when it proves itself and gives me something to channel long into, a perfect entry, very low risk, and more than a dead-cat bounce. But it's fun talkin' about it and watchin' it

[spikefader]

Dr. Spike,
I was looking at your chart again. At the bottom you wrote, "Expanding channel hit". I didn't see an expanding channel. I did see the price broke through the 3 year channel and recovered. Is it that breakthrough that you call "an expanding channel?" I am trying to sharpen my chart reading skills.

I am not going to take GM long. But the more I look at that chart, the more I am convinced that she's going to bounce for a daytrade/swingtrade. That bearflag signaled yesterday's drop, and I noticed that drop was equal to the flagpole that held the bearflag. My thinking is that she's going to bounce. IF one is quick, he might jump in and out with some profit. On the other hand, I try to buy only healthy companies, not sick ones like this.

Thanks!

Here ya go. Declining channel bearish expansions/break downs are very bearish behavior; more so than rising channel bearish expansions or break downs. Why? Well, it's more of an extreme thing. This begs the question; well, are declining lower trend lines greater support then? I would say no, if anything, it's less important support for a long entry to go off, but it is greater 'technical' reason to worry if one occurs. In other words, if it happens, the price action is so weak that profit-takers, i.e. shorters, either don't 'see' the significance of the channel, or if they do, they don't care to take profits at the technical exact point on the chart. So that whispers the potential that bears are letting it ride further down. That's my take anyway, and opposing opinions welcomed.

[spikefader]

Isn't the doji star indicator more reliable if the star is a gap down?

Calling all candle experts! (cuz I ain't one)