Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[spikefader]

Here's another channel long on ALEX.

ALEX weekly has recently busted and looks like it's looking for 35.00 support.

[spikefader]

Spike,
Awesome pick on the TZOO setup. I hope you had it rather than just in the portfolio of the week contest. Just beautiful.

Thanks. TZOO is not listed as shortable, and no options (puts) for it.

[MEA_1956]

Sina

SINA === As I try to find time everyday to learn a little more about charting it seams the less I know. The more charts I look at the more it reminds me of looking at a puzzel. the peices are in front of you but they just don't fit.

I know that I'm wet behind the ears but can you see a pattern in this setup on SINA. having trouble picking just where to place the starting point.

thanks in advance Marlin

[IIC]

Spike...mind giving me your periodic take on WITS when you get a chance...I plan on holding through earnings at this point again although it has been a drag on my overall performance...Thx...Doug(IIC)

[spikefader]

SINA === As I try to find time everyday to learn a little more about charting it seams the less I know. The more charts I look at the more it reminds me of looking at a puzzel. the peices are in front of you but they just don't fit.

I know that I'm wet behind the ears but can you see a pattern in this setup on SINA. having trouble picking just where to place the starting point.

thanks in advance Marlin

lol hehe
I'm kind of neutral on it. Needs to do more to prove itself.

[spikefader]

re SNHY long at 28.50 here http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...postcount=2987
out for a push today. c support failed and add that to a bad entry yesterday and I have every reason to get out.

Vector threatening to change, but still bullish today.

[spikefader]

MEA, further on MWRK is another channel short at 14.00.

[spikefader]

spike if ya find the time check out these three 6 months charts

hurc awgi tktx thanks

I dunno about cups. AWGI looks like it. IIC?

[spikefader]

Spike...mind giving me your periodic take on WITS when you get a chance...I plan on holding through earnings at this point again although it has been a drag on my overall performance...Thx...Doug(IIC)

Sure Doug!

WITS just hasn't responded yet to the pop to new highs and out of the triangle on the weekly.......and now the daily looking weak. I would have expected more support the last few weeks. Maybe there's a reason for that. If it decides to search for weekly channel support, I'd expect 12.50 to offer good support....and if that fails, look out below. Sorry it's not more upbeat Hope I'm way off and it booms!

[coachgbw]

thanks

thanks for your time spike
stocks sure are funny animals
hurc up .74
awgi down .27
tktx down .54

[spikefader]

thanks for your time spike
stocks sure are funny animals
hurc up .74
awgi down .27
tktx down .54

Yep, you've got that right. The whole market is an animal!

It is one thing to have a bullish or bearish bias for any particular stock, but the bottom line is entries matter and can make the difference. A stock may have a clear bullish bias, but at the same time it may have a big down day to support areas, where it becomes a great buy. And the days it flys to give you a profit, there comes a point in time when resistance is sold for profit-taking and to lower risk exposure.

The trick is to find the overall trend (or trend change) and then make a plan around that trend; For bullish stocks you want to buy on weakness and sell during strength at resistance. For bearish stocks, you want to short into strength and buy during weakness at support. It's often contrary to what your emotion tells you to do. If we can just grasp the importance of BASSAR (you should all know what that means by now) then you are well along the way of becoming profitable.

[spikefader]

BEL: The nightmare continues. Learning chart this one.

[yaoyao]

Oh what a difference a day can make. No, I don't feel the same. Yesterday's action (Friday) took out the channel long day low of 14.23 and gave a fresh channel turn down, which makes the long setup now invalid. There is NO reason to stay long and every reason to get out (as far as channel theory goes and my personal opinion goes).

Here's an intraday chart (well, I was going to attach one; I still can't upload )with possible count down yesterday. Now bear in mind that yesterday (in my opinion) is a day of significance; i.e. it's the day that bulls turned from feeling great about their setup to disappointed about the failure. So price action from this point (and until support is found) the stock will likely produce results reflecting that significance. Stops being taken out; bulls will be squirming out of their possibly sizeable long positions; shorters will be selling strength. This is why resistance will be holding firm and supports will be failing. Bulls extricating themselves, and bears shorting into whatever strength there is in the short rallies. This could potentially happen all the way down to the gap fill, with hardly any retracement to an R1 or R2. I say potentially. Will it really happen? Lord knows. Will you feel dumb if you exit and it bounces? Yes. But that is just emotion. And emotion is not welcome in your decision-making, only logic. Will you feel like a genius if you exit and it drops like a rock? Yes. But this is just emotion. So it's all about planning the trade and trading the plan, despite what happens later.

OK, my interpretation of yesterday's intraday chart: Once c up is completed and in you should feel safer that you have a chance to get out at a pivot or R1. If c short works and breaks 5, you should be concerned that a volatile continuation of the break down may occur and possibly quickly fill the gap at 12ish. This is the immediate worst-case scenario, which is relavent to formulating your exit strategy. How long should one hold a losing position in the face of the worst immediate case scenario? Well, it's all about risk management isn't it. There are no guarantees with it; all you can do is control what you CAN control; yourself and your exit execution. And after you've done that, not dwell on what happens immediately after you exit.

Good luck to ya.

I sold my SNRR position two days ago, and was happy because it closed very bearishly. Then it bounced yesterday and today because a buy rate from Jefferies. I dont feel dumb because I acted correctly based on its chart. It might be just fate. I bought SNRR twice, and sold for a small loss both times. The stock bounced both times on very next day. The company has good fundamentals. I'm sure if I should touch it again.

[spikefader]

I sold my SNRR position two days ago, and was happy because it closed very bearishly. Then it bounced yesterday and today because a buy rate from Jefferies. I dont feel dumb because I acted correctly based on its chart. It might be just fate. I bought SNRR twice, and sold for a small loss both times. The stock bounced both times on very next day. The company has good fundamentals. I'm sure if I should touch it again.

Bad fortune yaoyao But you did the right thing and despite the stock attempting to make you feel foolish, you deserve a pat on the back. You took a loss and ignored hope or whatever else may have kept you holding it. Even with the rally I still would have done the same. You can only trade what you see ya know. There is no way to predict whether you'll get an uppy after weakness like that. It's luck of the draw. The reason I took it short in the competition was it looked so weak on Friday and definately has potential for lower.

BUT: Channel short today for it, so shorting into this strength is the play. Could that be proven wrong too? Sure - the channel expanding a little, and could be broken take a stop out if you short it, and the setup is a loss. I welcome the losses; since I know 'the losses' are going to force their way in anyway I'll put out the welcome mat, calmly accept the bad 'company' and encourage them to leave early, accept the cost of that party, and plan the next party for the welcome guests who I will encourage to stay long into the wee hours, and pocket as much of the 'good times' before the headache the next day

Trading is just like a party. Great parties last a looooooooong time; poor parties and the guests leave early. Both cost money to throw. But only one will give you 'good times' hehe OK, I've worn that analogy out now.........

Best to you!

[B.J]

BEL: The nightmare continues. Learning chart this one.

Good chart Spike. And, you're right. A good lesson.

Those posters on the IBD forums who take delight in this stock dropping, just to stick it to $$MM$$, make me sick.