Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[New-born baby]

Baby STO

Yes, I am a ten cent chartist. But the STO is highly accurate in showing you the tops and bottoms of a move. Take a ten year chart, or a ten minute chart, and you'll see the thing is wonderful--about 95% accurate.

[spikefader]

..sorry that you and Spike view this indicator as being useless.......my view is that STO is the engine under the hood of the markets......shows pretty darn good swing signals.

Thanks for the chart examples Runner and your views on stochastics. I want to clarify that I never said I view it as useless. I actually have a futes system using it and although I'm not currently using it I haven't abandoned it as useless. What I did say was, "it makes me wonder just what use it is. I mean why should closing value relative to high/low values be important or significant".

I was merely giving deeper thought to it with regard to importance of something real like support/resistance, which are probably more significant than an oscillator. An oscillator is great, but what happens at support/resistance is greater. I'd like to see/develop an indicator based on support and resistance; something that can identify every possible support and resistance point on a chart, and represent it in a way that is tradeable.

Whether stoch is a great momo indicator or not, it's really just another 'line in the sand' method for entry and exit, and that's great. I don't think it matters WHAT your method is, as long as you are disciplined and deal with the failed signals it delivers. I know traders who have invested a lot of time and money to trade off stochastics, and in the end moved on to other things because it doesn't provide enough consistancy, and fails too often, so they say. I think perhaps what really happened was they weren't disciplined enough or didn't look at enough time frames, and blamed the tool rather than search within themselves for the answer.

I've actually made decent money trading futures with stochastics, and it's gotten me into some wonderful moves. But I've also been chopped to pieces trading it. Like every oscillator, its limitation is that we never know when price action and intent of the market is going to completely ignore stoch signals simply because there are greater forces at play.

And it gets back to the fact that no matter whether it's stochs or CCI or channels or money flow or divergences or support/resistance, combinations of all or a few, it's not the indicator that makes the difference so much as smart r/r and unfailing discipline.

[Runner]

Spike very good points and well taken. True no indicator is the “Holly Grail” and sto can whip ya around. That is why in choppy times if trading at all I will only trade the 3 lane highway. This is simple sto in 60 min needs to be up, 13 min sto needs to be up, and 3 minute needs to be bouncing back down off the 80 band and hooking up. Now all time frames forum the 3 lane highway. This method is also the most forgiving if your entry is a little off.

One rule I use is never fight the 13 min sto. This simple method has earned me some real nice gains and have had D/T’s turn into swing trades off it.I agree a support resistance indicator would be real sweet. Spike write one up and then get it patented. You could become a Billonaire...

[spikefader]

I installed the lastest version of Firefox on my PC last night and I've been having trouble ever since. I just typed a bunch of stuff and lost it argh.

Anyway, for the thread's sake I'll post my change to fully fledged bear last night. I am short YM from the pivot today at 10385 during early strength, and as expected the market sold off pretty fast from the double top. It could get ugly today folks.

Newborn, what is that fear indicator of yours doing?

[spikefader]

DELL playing out nicely

[New-born baby]

Fear Factor

I installed the lastest version of Firefox on my PC last night and I've been having trouble ever since. I just typed a bunch of stuff and lost it argh.

Anyway, for the thread's sake I'll post my change to fully fledged bear last night. I am short YM from the pivot today at 10385 during early strength, and as expected the market sold off pretty fast from the double top. It could get ugly today folks.

Newborn, what is that fear indicator of yours doing?

The Fear Factor has fallen so low the guy is afraid to post it. But he has warned for the past week that the bottom was going to fall out. Marty Chenard is pretty good!

I look for a 6% amputation to come off of the NAZ, and probably an equal amount on the Dow. GM an excellent short; Dell--sub $30 target. Walmart could very well return to being a $20 stock, according to the chart. Ugh!
Lots of shorts out there.

[New-born baby]

Bmhc

Spike,

In this environment I don't expect BMHC to hold up too much longer. Do I get a yeah or a nay out of Spike?

[spikefader]

Spike,

In this environment I don't expect BMHC to hold up too much longer. Do I get a yeah or a nay out of Spike?

You get a big yeah out me. Double top is in, minor channel bust today. It could see 66 in a hurry now. No way I'd be long or looking for an entry until that top is taken out, or a major channel long now. It was looking so strong, and then it died. Such can happen as we know well enough.

[spikefader]

The Fear Factor has fallen so low the guy is afraid to post it..

So low you say?? So fear is low as in complacent and we have more to drop, or fear is very high and a tradeable bounce is at hand?

Thanks.

[New-born baby]

No information available.

So low you say?? So fear is low as in complacent and we have more to drop, or fear is very high and a tradeable bounce is at hand?

Thanks.

NO comment from Marty for awhile on the Fear Factor. He has posted daily for about 7-10 days that a big drop is coming. If I pay him $209 I can get you an answer, but I am too cheap.

[New-born baby]

Solid Resistance at $99

You get a big yeah out me. Double top is in, minor channel bust today. It could see 66 in a hurry now. No way I'd be long or looking for an entry until that top is taken out, or a major channel long now. It was looking so strong, and then it died. Such can happen as we know well enough.

BMHC really took at hit every time it touched $99. Somebody with shares was smart enough to know "this is it."

[New-born baby]

Bears

BMHC really took at hit every time it touched $99. Somebody with shares was smart enough to know "this is it."

When the Bear is around, the MoMo doesn't last too long. PCU and RIO and FRGB are showing us that.

[Runner]

Spike,

In this environment I don't expect BMHC to hold up too much longer. Do I get a yeah or a nay out of Spike?

Pick a stock and short it. Let me see how about NGAS? haaahhhaa

[Runner]

Oh, but wait I could not get any shares on NGAS

[New-born baby]

Tweezer Bottom?

Spike,
BMHC showing us a Tweezer Bottom?